FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 4/3/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches.
|Saturday, April 3rd|
|Sheffield United at Leeds|
|Manchester City at Leicester City|
|Liverpool at Arsenal|
Matchweek 30 features three big-six sides in Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. However, the quality of their opposition leaves Leeds (-195) as the largest favorite on the slate, followed by Manchester City (-175) and Liverpool (+120). Arsenal (+210), Leicester City (+500), and Sheffield (+500) round out the slate as underdogs.
From an odds perspective, this is one of the more evenly contested main slates we've had in months. There is a plethora of talent available at the top end of the salary pool at all positions, and the largest favorite on a slate featuring three big-six sides is Leeds. Popularity should be more spread out than in recent slates due to the presence of so many stars.
There is a chance Leeds may go a tad overlooked despite their standing as the largest favorite on the slate. Leeds stars Patrick Bamford ($21) and Raphinha ($19) are in a great spot but offer no discount relative to their more well-known counterparts on Manchester City and Liverpool.
With all that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Kalvin Phillips, FWD/MID, Leeds
FanDuel Salary: $11
Usually a consistent midfield option from the largest favorite on a three-game slate would be a near lock to be a popular play, but with Leeds in a position to possibly not be as popular as they should be, that may not be the case for Phillips this weekend.
Operating as a defensive mid in Leeds' 4-1-4-1 formation, Phillips has been a consistent producer all season, with at least 9.5 FanDuel points in each of his last 10 starts. His consistency hasn't come with many spike performances, but he started the season with three consecutive games with of more than 20.0 FanDuel points, a result of a combined nine chances created in that span. Facing a Sheffield United side that has given up the most goals (13) over their last six-matches, Phillips could return to those early-season results this weekend.
Since coming back from a calf injury in early March, he has remained involved on set pieces, with 4 set pieces taken to Raphina's 18. His low salary of $11 makes him an excellent addition in lineups that use multiple high-salary stars.
With star power from big-six sides available, Phillips' lower ceiling is less of a concern if you can hit on ceiling games from others. He offers a solid floor and opens up salary for higher-upside options on the rest of the slate.
Thiago, FWD/MID, Liverpool
FanDuel Salary: $9
Saturday's clash between Liverpool and Arsenal starts the final stretch for two clubs that have had disappointing Premier League seasons to date. Both sides have been maddeningly inconsistent, trading off runs of decent form for stretches of fixtures without wins. Their results to this point make it difficult to have confidence in either team, but in that hesitancy, we can find opportunity in Liverpool's midfield.
While it's true both sides haven't lived up to expectations this season, things have been far worse recently for Arsenal. The Gunners entered the international break with a loss to Olympiacos and a draw to West Ham, while Liverpool is coming off back-to-back wins over RB Leipzig and Wolves. The last time Arsenal kept a clean sheet was January 30th. They have conceded at least one goal in 12 consecutive fixtures, with multiple goals allowed to West Ham, Benfica, Wolves, and Leeds during that stretch.
Thiago offers affordable exposure to Liverpool's midfield and is the most likely of their midfield trio to be active in the final third. He has a chance created in each of his last five starts, and Fabinho's return to the holding midfield position after a long spell at center back should free up Thiago to attack Arsenal's backline.
As was the case with Phillips, Thiago's salary makes him an excellent inclusion in lineups that want to roster multiple high-salary studs. If going all-in on Liverpool, you can also consider pairing him with Mohamed Salah ($20).