Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 3
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for what the betting public is doing for each match.
Brighton vs. Everton
Brighton to win +140
Brighton defied the laws of expected goal (xG) difference last season when they finished in 16th place in the EPL despite a -- per FBRef -- +13.9 xG differential, which ranked fifth-best in the league. Brighton never got the results they deserved, according to xG, last season, but this year they have started 2W-0D-0L and appear poised for a strong campaign.
Brighton had more shots on target than their opponent in both matches so far, and they won by a combined score of 4-1. Everton are 1-1-0 to start the season, but if we look at last year’s numbers, they finished with an xG difference of only -4.8.
These stats indicate that Brighton is likely the better team despite the placement in last year’s table. Brighton should have a good chance to win this home game.
Manchester City vs. Arsenal
Manchester City -2 (no push) +210
Manchester City was absolutely dominant in the EPL last season, going 27-5-6 with a league-leading +51 goal difference and a league-best +42.0 xG difference. City lost 1-0 to Tottenham to open this season, but they bounced back with a 5-0 win over Norwich. Even with the Spurs loss, City are tied for the league in xG difference (+3.2) through two matches.
On the other side, Arsenal had a terribly disappointing campaign last year, finishing in eighth place, and they are off to a poor start this time around with losses to Brentford and Chelsea through two weeks. The Gunners have yet to score a goal this year, and they rank 19th in the league in xG difference.
City should not only win this game -- they should blow Arsenal out of the water.
Aston Villa vs. Brentford
Aston Villa to win -105
Brentford is off to a hot start this season with a 2-0 win against Arsenal followed up by a 0-0 draw versus Crystal Palace. Four points in their first two games in the EPL is certainly more than Brentford fans would have reasonably expected coming into the season, considering they needed the playoff to get promoted from the Championship last year.
Villa have re-established themselves as a quality EPL team. They finished 16-7-15 last year with a +0.1 xGD. Villa have started this year 1-0-1 and are likely on track for another mid-table finish. Losing star Jack Grealish is a low, but the additions of Danny Ings and Emi Buendia should prove to be quality signings.
Playing at home, the Villans should be expected take all three points from promoted Brentford.