Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 5
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on Soccer odd this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for what the betting public is doing for each match.
Wolves vs. Brentford
Wolves to win -110
Wolves are off to a 1W-0D-3L start this season, but they have been unlucky according to expected goal differential (xGD). Wolves are third in xGD at +3.2 despite their record, only trailing Manchester City and Liverpool.
Wolves face Brentford, who are off to a good start at 1-2-1 with a +1.1 xGD. However, Brentford have allowed more shots on target than their opponents in three of their four matches, and they are still proving themselves as a legitimate EPL team, as they just got promoted after last season.
Wolves should win this game at home and getting them at even odds is a good betting opportunity.
Burnley vs. Arsenal
Arsenal to win +100
Arsenal are off to a tough start this season at 1-0-3, but they are much more talented than their early-season record indicates. The Gunners won their last match 1-0 against Norwich, and they outshot them 30-10 in total shots and 7-1 in shots on target.
Even with Arsenal’s slow start, Burnley are still below them in the standings at 0-1-3. Arsenal also finished much better than Burnley last season, as they finished the year in 8th place with 61 points and a +9.2 xGD compared to 17th place, 39 points, and a -17.7 xGD for Burnley.
Arsenal are not nearly as good as they were in the prime Arsene Wenger seasons, but they are still much more talented than Burnley. They should expect to get three points from this fixture.
Newcastle vs. Leeds
Leeds to win +120
Leeds are off to a slow start this season at 0-2-2, but they have faced a difficult schedule, as they lost to Manchester United and Liverpool.
Newcastle are below Leeds in the table at 0-1-3, and they are slightly behind on xGD, at -4.8 compared to -4.2 for Leeds.
Last season, Leeds finished 9th in the table with 59 points and a -5.4 xGD. Newcastle lagged behind in 12th place with 45 points and a -13.0 xGD.
It is clear that Leeds are a better team than Newcastle based on the last season or so of data, and they are a good bet to win, especially given the plus odds.