FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 9/25/21
West Ham (+120) at Leeds (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -164 | Most Likely to Score: Michail Antonio (+130)
Norwich (+490) at Everton (-165)
Over 2.5 Goals: -120 | Most Likely to Score: Salomon Rondon (+120)
Burnley (+500) at Leicester City (-165)
Over 2.5 Goals: -116 | Most Likely to Score: Jamie Vardy (-115)
Newcastle (+250) at Watford (+115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -112 | Most Likely to Score: Joshua King (+190)
Liverpool (-220) at Brentford (+550)
Over 2.5 Goals: -132 | Most Likely to Score: Mohamed Salah (-140)
At first glance, this looks like a slate to load up on the Reds, but I'm not so sure.
While Liverpool are the biggest favorite (-220) and have the slate's best odds to net two-plus goals (-185), the Reds actually don't meet the stacking criteria I look for. Per a study I did, we want to stack sides that are at least -233 to win. Liverpool are close to that mark and are capable of pouring in three or four goals in any match, especially one versus promoted Brentford, but the numbers say we shouldn't stack 'em. Plus, with no other big-six sides on the slate, the masses will likely be all over Liverpool, which makes me want to go lighter on Jurgen Klopp's bunch.
Mohamed Salah ($23; -140) is pretty much a lock to be the slate's most popular player. He has slate-best anytime goal odds, is on penalties and has been in excellent form this year. Salah checks the boxes. If you want to be contrarian while still having Liverpool exposure, you can fade Salah and look to Sadio Mane ($21; +135) or Diogo Jota ($20; +175). Mane has a goal in three of his past four league matches while Jota has two goals in five appearances and created six chances two matches ago.
After locking in my Liverpool attacker, I'll shift my focus to getting a piece from each of Leicester and Everton.
The Foxes are off to a slow start, but they have a dream date with Burnley. Leicester are -165 to win and -150 to score at least two goals -- the latter is slightly better than the Toffees' clip. Whenever Leicester are in a good spot, you should consider Jamie Vardy ($22; -115). I anticipate a lot of people will do just that, so if you want to dodge chalk, you can pivot to Ayoze Perez ($13; +190), Youri Tielemans ($15; +600), Harvey Barnes ($13; +210) or James Maddison ($12; +200).
Tielemans has taken a lot of corners off Maddison's plate, but Maddison has good goal odds at a modest salary. I'll have one of Maddison, Barnes and Perez in a lot of my lineups, and they're super handy if you are trying to stack Liverpool.
As for Everton, they're also -165 to win, and they're in a comfy matchup with Norwich. The bummer is that Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison will both miss out due to injury, so it makes attacking this good matchup a little more of a guessing game. Solomon Rondon ($19; +120) has Everton's best goal odds. Alex Iwobi ($13; +500) isn't a bad dart throw, while Andros Townsend ($18; +360) and Abdoulaye Doucoure ($17; +500) have started brightly this year under Rafa Benitez.
We haven't touched on the Leeds-West Ham match, but we know any match Leeds are in usually winds up being a fantasy-friendly encounter. We saw that play out last week, as Leeds made Newcastle fun in a 1-1 draw. This game has the best over 2.5 goal odds (-165) by a mile, and you can argue for skipping over Everton to get access to each side in this one.
West Ham are -125 to score two-plus, compared to Leeds' mark of +115, so the Hammers are the more enticing squad. Michail Antonio ($22; +130), Said Benrahma ($19; +310) and Jarrod Bowen ($16; +200) are the Hammers' top options. Factoring in salary, Bowen is one of my favorite plays on the slate, and he should thrive if this turns into a track meet.
Patrick Bamford will be sidelined for Leeds, so it's Rodrigo ($13; +250) who sports team-best goal odds. Raphinha ($20; +350) is reportedly healthy after being subbed off last week while Tyler Roberts ($7; +300) is a great source of cap relief.
Added time -- Watford may slip through the cracks a bit, but they are +115 to win against a Newcastle side that's conceded a lot of goals. Joshua King ($19; +190), Emmanuel Dennis ($17; +220) and Ismalia Sarr ($21; +210) are all viable picks. ... On the flip side of that game, it's not a bad matchup for Newcastle's attackers, either, but Callum Wilson is out. Joelinton ($16; +340) has the top goal odds among the Magpies' expected starters.
As is usually the case when Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15) is on a slate, he has the most upside at defender. Trent -- who is +650 to score -- missed out last weekend but is set to return in a nice matchup at Brentford. The Reds should see a lot of the ball, giving Alexander-Arnold plenty of chances to get forward and send in crosses. His set-piece work and elite ability to create chances give him a floor/ceiling combination that can't be topped at the position.
Reds teammate Virgil van Dijk ($11) has better goal odds (+600) and comes at a nice salary discount. Andrew Robertson ($14) shares TAA's +650 goal odds and gets in on corner kicks, as well. Liverpool have slate-best clean-sheet odds (+126), so the bonus is in play for all of their backline.
My favorite play at defender is Lucas Digne ($11). His goal odds are horrible (+1900), but he can thrive versus Norwich. Digne handles some corners and set pieces and is usually salaried up near the top of the position. He's had outings of 17.2 and 19.4 FanDuel points this season.
Brentford's projected back three of Pontus Jansson ($12), Ethan Pinnock ($11) and Kristoffer Ajer ($9) are all solid floor plays against the Reds. I'll take the salary savings and plug in Ajer, who delivered 18.0 FanDuel points at Wolves last time out from solely defensive work.
Added time -- Ben Mee ($12) is another high-floor pick. Burnley will likely be without the ball a lot versus the Foxes. Mee is averaging 13.8 FanDuel points per game this campaign. ... Watford full-backs Kiko Femenia ($12) and Danny Rose ($8) are worth a look. Femenia had an assist and three chances created in his lone EPL outing this year. Both will have chances to push forward against the Magpies. ... Leicester's Ryan Bertrand ($8) is a fun low-salary target. .. Vladimir Coufal ($10) is easy to like at his salary in a date with Leeds.
The best win odds (-220) and clean-sheet odds (+126) fall to Alisson ($13). Liverpool's defense has been stout through five EPL matches, racking up four clean sheets. Alisson has had to make at least two saves in every match, so the save volume isn't bad. He's a top play if you have the coin.
I really like Kasper Schmeichel ($12) at home against Burnley. The Foxes are tied with Everton for the second-best odds to both win (+165) and keep a clean sheet (+130). Burnley just hasn't packed much of a punch in attack, and Schmeichel is a talented keeper.
But if Jordan Pickford ($5) can return for Everton -- things are trending that way -- it's hard to argue against taking the $7 savings and using England's number-one.
Added time -- Watford's Ben Foster ($10) has the best clean-sheet odds outside of those three. The Hornets are at home against Newcastle, but it's a Magpies attack that has been blanked just once so far this league season. ... Lukasz Fabianski ($11) is only +290 to keep a clean sheet against Leeds, but he should offer save volume and maybe Leeds' attack is off sans Bamford. The upside is there for a multi-save clean-sheet win if everything falls correctly.