FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/2/21
Norwich (+330) at Burnley (-115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Wood (+105)
Southampton (+700) at Chelsea (-270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (-140)
Watford (+370) at Leeds (-135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -148 | Most Likely to Score: Rodrigo (+180)
Newcastle (+410) at Wolves (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (-120)
Arsenal (+145) at Brighton (+210)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang/Lacazette (+175)
Hosting Southampton, Chelsea are the biggest favorite (-270) and have the best odds (-210) of scoring at least two goals. They're going to be the go-to team for the masses, and Romelu Lukaku ($23; -140) will surely be the slate's most popular player.
Lukaku is -140 to score, the best odds on the slate, and he's hit the ground running this season in his return to Chelsea, scoring three times in five EPL starts. If you want to fade him, you can find reasons to do so -- such as Lukaku not being on penalties -- but the Belgian could post a slate-breaking output if the Blues run rampant, and Chelsea's usual formation funnels balls to him up top.
Chelsea's -270 moneyline price clears the bar for the size of favorite we want when stacking, so using multiple Blues attackers is a viable route. I probably won't do it too much, though, because I think the Saints can put up a fight, and there are some good attacking spots elsewhere on this slate.
Mason Mount ($19; +240) is expected to be fit after a brief spell on the sidelines. Given that Chelsea lost both matches he missed, Mount might get thrown right back into the starting XI and assume his usual role on set pieces. Kai Havertz ($16; +160) is my favorite play on this slate. He'll likely be in an attacking role, has solid goal odds and carries a modest salary. Timo Werner ($19; +160) also has nice goal odds while Jorginho ($11; +240) is a shot in the dark at a penalty. If Hakim Ziyech ($16; +220) starts, I'd be super into him. Depending on who is in Chelsea's lineup, I'll be tempted to fade Lukaku and stack two other Blues attackers when I do stack them.
The Leeds-Watford match is one I will prioritize getting exposure to, and I want a piece from each side. The match is a slate-high -148 to go over 2.5 goals, and we know how fantasy-friendly Leeds fixtures can be. Leeds are -160 to score at least twice, the second-best odds behind Chelsea.
The tricky part about this match is that even though we should see goals, no player is better than +180 to score, with the absence of Patrick Bamford taking away Leeds' best goal-scorer. That can be a positive, however, as it gives us some flexibility when targeting this match.
Raphinha ($21; +260) is likely to be the most popular Leeds player. He delivered as the chalk last weekend, scoring a goal, and he usually does a little bit of everything. I'll probably be light on the Brazilian winger and go after Rodrigo ($18; +180) or Daniel James ($15; +220) instead. While Rodrigo and James don't offer the play-making juice of Raphinha, they have better goal odds at lower salaries.
Leeds have surrendered the third-most expected goals thus far, per FBRef, so this is a nice spot for Watford's attack, which is spearheaded by Joshua King ($18; +260), Ismalia Sarr ($20; +310) and Emmanuel Dennis ($16; +320). King is my preference between the three. He has 18.0 and 18.2 FanDuel points across his last two matches, notching an assist and creating two chances in each.
Wolves are the last team I want to go in-depth on. They're at home against Newcastle -- a side that has allowed 14 goals through six EPL matches -- and are -150 to score two-plus goals. Raul Jimenez ($21; -120) has excellent goal odds and is rounding into form after his scary head injury. Jimenez netted his first goal of the campaign last time out and has created multiple chances in all but one match this season. Daniel Podence ($15; +160) holds the second-best goal odds among Wolves projected starters while Adama Traore ($14; +260) and Trincao ($17; +240) need to be on our radar if they start.
Added time -- Burnley get a dream matchup against Norwich, a side that has shipped 16 goals through six matches. Chris Wood ($20; +105) has just one game with double-digit FanDuel points this season but could bust out in a big way Saturday. ... Teemu Pukki ($18; +175) is a solid +175 to score for the Canaries. ... The Arsenal-Brighton match has the slate's lowest over 2.5 goal odds (+106). Arsenal looked like a proper team last Sunday, but I have no idea how legit that is. This is a match I'll mostly shy away from. If you want a piece, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($22; +175) has the top goal odds among expected starters.
Chelsea's Marcos Alonso ($15) is the top attacking full-back in the player pool.
In a match in which the Blues could see a lot of the ball, Alonso will have chances to get forward and should spend a lot of time roaming the left wing. Alonso is averaging 25.3 FanDuel points per game this season and has produced more than 29 FanDuel points in three of his six matches. He's a great stacking partner alongside a Chelsea attacker, and his +480 goal odds are stellar for a defender.
On the other side of that match, the Saints' Mohammed Salisu ($12) and Jan Bednarek ($11) are solid floor plays. Southampton's center-backs will be very busy at Stamford Bridge, and with how often the Blues like to play in balls for Lukaku, these two will likely rack up a lot of defensive points.
Wolves' Nelson Semedo ($12) is capable of generating a lot of chances created versus Newcastle. Semedo is averaging 12.3 FanDuel points per game and has put one shot on goal in two of his last three outings.
In the value range, Watford center-backs Craig Cathcart ($8) and William Troost-Ekong ($9) will benefit from facing Leeds, whose frantic style boosts the outlook of everyone on the opposition. Leeds are capable of pinning back the Hornets and forcing Cathcart and Troost-Ekong into a busy afternoon.
Added time -- Leeds' Junior Firpo ($8) is easy to get behind at his salary. The full-back created three chances against Newcastle two matches ago and could deliver a similar output against Watford. ... Not often can we use Burnley's Matthew Lowton ($10) and Charlie Taylor ($8) and expect attacking upside, but a home clash with Norwich is one of those rare occasions.
The best clean-sheet odds (-104) and win odds (-270) belong to Chelsea's Edouard Mendy ($13). The Blues have been very hard to break down since Thomas Tuchel arrived, and Mendy has been a big part of that. He's kept a clean sheet in three of his last five league matches, with the exceptions being Liverpool (penalty) and Manchester City (deflected goal). Southampton are a nice matchup, and he should offer at least a little save volume in addition to the sublime clean-sheet chances.
After Mendy, it's pretty wide open. Burnley's Nick Pope ($11) and Wolves' Jose Sa ($12) are two guys who intrigue me.
At home against Norwich, Burnley desperately need to get a result, and Pope is a quality keeper. Burnley are -115 to win and +162 to blank the Canaries. Sa is at home to Newcastle, and Wolves are +140 to keep a clean sheet as well as -155 to win. Between these two, the numbers point to Sa being the better bet.
Added time -- I'm somewhat into Robert Sanchez ($9). Brighton's goalie draws a home date with Arsenal. The Gunners are on the upswing at the moment, but Brighton are a solid defensive side. ... Watford's Ben Foster ($8) is a viable punt. Leeds usually create chances, and if they struggle to put them home sans Bamford, Foster could rack up several saves.