DraftKings Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/2/21
We’ve got just four games on the main slate this week before we’ll take a week off for the international fixtures. Here are the games, with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook:
|Chelsea (-270)||+380||Southampton (+750)|
|Leeds (-135)||+280||Watford (+360)|
|Burnley (-115)||+260||Norwich (+330)|
|Wolves (-150)||+300||Newcastle (+410)|
Forwards to Target
Romelu Lukaku ($10,500): Lukaku has had a few down games in a row, but those were in tougher matchups against Juventus, Manchester City and Tottenham. He can definitely get on track in this match against Southampton.
Lukaku scored three goals in the league and one in the Champions League against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Zenit, teams that were overmatched by Chelsea. The odds suggest that is certainly the case in this match.
Lukaku has the second-highest salary at forward, behind only Raphinha. While Raphinha was a great play last week, it’s tough to get behind him again this week. He hasn’t been able to even play 70 minutes in the last two matches. He has +260 any time goal odds, which don’t hold a candle to Lukaku’s -140.
If you are using a forward with a high salary, Lukaku is the way to go.
Allan Saint-Maximin ($8,000): The term “lone bright spot” applies when it comes to Allan Saint-Maximin and Newcastle United this season.
They have yet to win a game this season and sit in 17th place in the table. ASM has not only been their best player to watch, but he is their best piece for fantasy. He has contributed to a goal in four straight games, including away to Manchester United. Saint-Maximin has recorded at least 14.9 DraftKings points in five of six games. Even though we don't think of him as a typical floor player, he shoots enough and creates enough chances to be relied upon in most games.
Newcastle will likely need to counter-attack in this match, and ASM is the perfect counter-attacking threat. It wouldn't be a surprise if he was able to contribute to a goal again this week, so he's a good option at forward.
Chris Wood ($6,300): It's a rare occasion that Burnley are favored to win over the three possible results, but that is the case this week. They are at home against Norwich, who are having a dreadful time back in the Premier League. The Canaries have lost all six matches in the league and have conceded a league-high 16 goals.
Wood has one of the best opportunities to score that he will get this season. His goal-scoring odds currently sit at +105, which are great considering his salary of just $6,300. He's definitely a player you can take a flyer on in tournaments.
Others to consider: Raúl Jiménez ($9,000), Dwight McNeil ($8,300) Rodrigo ($7,300), Ashley Barnes ($4,500)
Midfielders to Target
Trincão ($7,000): The top of midfield is rough this week, with Jack Harrison up at $9,200 despite having one game above six points this season. James Ward-Prowse is at his highest salary of the year in a tough matchup against Chelsea, and Mason Mount is $8,500 and might not have set pieces or go 90 minutes as he is just returning from injury.
You can play one of the forward-eligible players at midfield even though that's typically the opposite of what we like to do, because usually forward is the weaker position. If you are looking at midfield-only options, Trincão could be a good choice. He has taken some set pieces for Wolves and has generally been a good floor pick. He hasn't flashed huge upside this season, but it could come in this game.
Wolves have managed to score just three goals in the league this season (one being an own goal), but they've been playing better than that suggests. They have underperformed their expected goals by 5.9, the worst margin in the league. In this matchup against Newcastle, Wolves could get back on track and actually score some goals.
It takes a bit of a leap of faith to play Trincão considering we haven't seen him produce the kind of huge game that we would like from a player with a $7,000 salary. However, with his talent and matchup, this is a perfect spot to take a shot on him.
Ashley Westwood ($5,800): Westwood may be considered a boring play by some, but we don't get extra fantasy points for style. He plays a more defensive game than what we like to see from our players, but he produces through corner kicks. He's done the job for us this season and now gets his best matchup yet.
Westwood has had at least eight fantasy points in every game and reached 16 in his best outing. Burnley have consistently been one of the best teams at scoring from set-pieces over the last few seasons, and they have three goals via that route so far this year. Norwich have conceded two goals from set-pieces. The opportunities for set pieces should increase Saturday as Burnley are a rare favorite in this match.
As mentioned, the midfield options are pretty weak, making Westwood a fine play because the opportunity cost isn't as great as it would be on some other slates. He's definitely in play in all formats.
Tom Cleverley ($4,500): We ran bad with Tom Cleverley last week, as he had to leave the game at halftime due to taking a blow to the head. He didn't have a concussion, though, so he should be back in the lineup this week. He gets the majority of set pieces for Watford, which could be useful in this spot.
Watford face Leeds in what could be an up-tempo match. Leeds love to attack, which has left them vulnerable at the back. Leeds have allowed the most shots per game this season (18.7). This benefits a creative player like Cleverley, who could rack up shot assists.
Cleverley is a good value at $4,500, and the same consideration of the positional strength that applies to Westwood applies here, as well. Some of the field might be scared off Cleverley because of the disappointment last week, but we should feel good about going back to him.
Others to consider: João Moutinho ($6,400), Daniel James ($4,900), Billy Gilmour ($3,800)
Defenders to Target
Marcos Alonso ($7,100): Alonso was once left for dead at Chelsea and appeared to be on the way out. Then, Thomas Tuchel took over as manager, and he clearly prefers Alonso to Ben Chilwell at left-back. Alonso has made the position his own and has once again become one of the most valuable defenders in DFS soccer.
Alonso has always been a good attacking full-back and good from a dead ball. He now leads Chelsea in corners taken this season. He also is dangerous from free-kick scenarios, as he is their best option for free kicks that require a left-footed taker.
Alonso has become one of Chelsea's main creators. A stack of him and Romelu Lukaku makes a lot of sense in tournaments, because they are good plays on their own but could combine on a goal.
Alonso clearly stands out above the rest of the defender position.
Marçal ($5,500): Marçal is another Wolves player who could do well in this matchup. Newcastle are the third-worst possession team in the Premier League and have allowed the second-most shots per game.
Marçal hasn't been afraid to get forward and cross balls into the box. He leads Wolves with 29 crosses on the season. If Wolves are able to control the game, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Brazilian wing-back to cross the ball, making him one of the better mid-range defender options this week.
Danny Rose ($4,100): It may feel like Danny Rose has been around forever, but he's still only 31 years old. He has proven that he still has a bit left in the tank, totaling more than eight DraftKings points in two of three games this season. If this match is the open game we think it will be, Rose should be able to have a good output once again. For just $4,100, he's a solid bargain at defender.
Others to consider: Matt Ritchie ($6,000), Max Aarons ($4,300), Kiko Femenía ($3,800)
Goalkeepers to Target
Édouard Mendy ($5,900): Mendy has kept up his solid play from last season. He has conceded just two goals in five league appearances. On this slate, you might have the salary for a top-shelf goalkeeper, and Mendy is the perfect one to target. Chelsea are favored to keep a clean sheet in this match, and on what might be a lower-scoring slate, the points you would get for a win and clean sheet could go a long way.
Karl Darlow ($3,900): Even though we like some players on Wolves, their inefficient finishing could continue. Wolves have averaged fifth-most shots per game, so there should be saves for Darlow in this matchup. It's acceptable to play a Wolves player or two against Darlow, because you shouldn't need a total ceiling performance from every position to win on a four-game slate that may not see many goals.
Nicholas Vazquez is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Nicholas Vazquez also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username hbyanksman. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.