Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 12
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers. You can also check out oddsFire to get a feel for the line movement of each match.
Leicester vs Chelsea
Chelsea to win -130
Chelsea are off to a fabulous start in the league this season, boasting a 8W-2D-1L record with a +23 goal difference and a remarkable 4 goals allowed through 11 games. Chelsea drew their last league match against Burnley, but they won their previous four league games in addition to a pair of UCL wins. In short, the Blues are in good form.
Leicester City are off to a lackluster start in the league, and their 4-3-4 record is good enough for only 12th place in the table. Leicester are 0-0-3 with a -6 goal difference against the top five this season, although they did defeat sixth-place Manchester United 4-2 for their best win of the year to date.
Chelsea look like a powerhouse at the moment, and Leicester have mostly struggled against the top teams this season. Leicester will have a tough time getting anything from this match.
Norwich vs Southampton
Southampton to win +105
Southampton are currently in 13th place with a 3-5-3 record. Their +1.2 expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, is good enough for eighth in the table, so perhaps they have been a bit unlucky early in the season. The Saints are in good form currently, going 3-1-0 in their last four league games.
Southampton’s opponent is Norwich, who are undoubtedly the worst team in the league through 11 games. Norwich are 1-2-8, giving them a 72.73% loss rate for the year. Norwich are also last in the league in xGD (-12) and last in the league in goal difference at -21.
Southampton are just the better side, and the Saints have a good shot to win this matchup, even away from home.
Newcastle vs Brentford
Brentford to win +165
Brentford got off to a hot start this campaign, but they have cooled off. The Bees are now 3-3-5 overall, putting them in 14th place. They have lost their last four matches, although they were unlucky last week against Norwich, as they outshot them 19-9, including 7-5 in shots on target.
Newcastle are 0-5-6, putting them in 19th place. Rhey have a -12 goal difference and -10.4 xGD -- compared to +2.5 for Brentford -- and they rank 19th in both categories.
Brentford showed signs of breaking out of their slump last week against Norwich, and they have another good opportunity to earn a victory this weekend against the Magpies. I like taking the Bees to get all three points.