FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 12/4/21
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS EPL. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features four matches. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.
Slate Overview
Burnley (+220) at Newcastle (+130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+120)
Liverpool (-230) at Wolves (+600)
Over 2.5 Goals: -140 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-130)
Brighton (+200) at Southampton (+145)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Maupay (+200)
Manchester City (-550) at Watford (+1300)
Over 2.5 Goals: -230 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (+100)
Matchweek 15 features two big-six sides on a short slate, with Manchester City and Liverpool in action. Manchester City (-550 to win) is the largest favorite on the slate, while Liverpool's Mohamed Salah ($22) has the best odds to score (-130) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Liverpool (-230 to win) is the second-biggest favorite behind Manchester City, while Newcastle (+130 to win) and Southampton (+145 to win) round out the slate as slight home favorites.
A defining theme of most slates in December will be squad rotation. The holiday fixture congestion has begun following Wednesday and Thursday's mid-week matches, and sides will likely start rotating more as the month progresses. This will lead to value opening up across the board, especially on elite sides. As value opens up, more DFS gamers will have salary for the superstars at the top end of the player pool. The more value available, the more popular said stars are likely to be.
Fading either big-six side this weekend is risky, but Liverpool are coming off an emotional derby victory over Everton on Wednesday and could be in for a trap game of sorts facing a defensively sound Wolves side after a quick turnaround.
With that in mind, here are two players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Maxwel Cornet, FWD/MID, Burnley
FanDuel Salary: $18
Since his arrival from Lyon this Summer, Cornet has been a bright spot in Burnley's attack, netting five goals in nine appearances. After a very productive October, he has had a relatively quiet last three matches, culminating in zero FanDuel points against Wolves on Wednesday. It was his first match with fewer than 10.0 FanDuel points since October 16th and just his third of the season thus far.
Burnley are undefeated in their last five matches, although four of them have been draws. Their lack of results hasn't been for a lack of goals -- they are averaging 1.8 per match over that stretch, including putting three past Brentford and one past Chelsea. This weekend they get a winless Newcastle side that leads the Premier League in goals conceded with 30, including an average of two goals permitted over their last three fixtures.
The potential for squad rotation combined with the presence of several key attacking options from Liverpool and Manchester City in Cornet's salary range should make him less popular on Saturday despite the matchup. Consider pairing him with teammate Ashley Westwood ($11), who is averaging 11.14 FanDuel points and 1.5 chances created per match this season.
Adam Armstrong, FWD/MID, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $16
Armstrong has been one of the most consistent attacking options in the Premier League this season but doesn't have the goals to show for it. Despite averaging 2.9 shots per match, the seventh-highest mark in the league, he has just two goals in 13 appearances. Of the six attackers above him in shots per match, all have at least four goals, and only Manchester United's Mason Greenwood has fewer than six.
Armstrong's consistent involvement in front of goal has produced a consistent fantasy floor, as he has posted at least 13.0 FanDuel points in each of his last five fixtures. On Saturday, Southampton faces a Brighton side that is winless across all competitions since September. After starting the season well, Brighton have conceded a goal in six of their last seven fixtures and sit second-to-last in the league points over the last six games.
Southampton is far from a prolific attack, but they have scored in four of their last five fixtures and are coming off a two-goal performance against Leicester City during the week. On a short slate where Liverpool and Manchester City are likely to be extremely popular, Armstrong could be a difference-maker in large-field tournaments if he can finally turn his consistent chances into goals.
