FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 3/5/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. ET and features six matches. All betting lines come from EPL odds, and they may change after the article is published.
Slate Overview
Brighton (+170) at Newcastle (+175)
Over 2.5 Goals: +128 | Most Likely to Score: Wood (+170)
Brentford (+160) at Norwich (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: +136 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+160)
Southampton (+200) at Aston Villa (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -120 | Most Likely to Score: Ings (+180)
Crystal Palace (+240) at Wolves (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: +158 | Most Likely to Score: Jimenez (+145)
Chelsea (-210) at Burnley (+600)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (+115)
West Ham (+850) at Liverpool (-340)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-140)
Matchweek 28 features a pair of big-six sides in Liverpool and Chelsea. Liverpool (-340 to win) is the largest favorite on the slate, and Mohamed Salah ($22) has the best odds to score (-140) of anyone expected to be active on Saturday.
Chelsea (-210 to win) is the second-biggest favorite, while Wolves (+135 to win), Aston Villa (+135 to win), Brentford (+160 to win), and Brighton (+170 to win) round out the slate as slight favorites.
All eyes will be on Liverpool this weekend as they look to extend their 11-game winning streak across all competitions. Saturday's clash will be their third fixture in seven days, so keep an eye out for some squad rotation following cup ties on Sunday and Wednesday. A Champions League clash with Inter Milan on Tuesday further adds to the potential for Reds rotation against West Ham.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider on this slate -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Milot Rashica, FWD/MID, Norwich
FanDuel Salary: $14
Both Norwich and Brentford enter Saturday's clash in need of a win. Norwich sits last on the league table and needs to pick up points from matches like this to have any chance of avoiding relegation, while Brentford is winless in their last nine matches and sits just three points clear of the drop.
Putting aside their losses to Manchester City and Liverpool, Norwich has notched six goals in their last four matches, which included wins against Watford and Everton. Rashica has been decently consistent despite Norwich's struggles, producing FanDuel point totals of 8.2, 28.2, 11.9, 9.9, 14.3, and 14.2 over his last six matches. Since returning from a groin injury in January, Rashica has totaled at least 8.2 FanDuel points in each of his seven starts and only twice failed to produce double digits.
The presence of Billy Gilmour ($13) on set pieces hurts Rashica's floor, but his odds to score (+340) are much better than Gilmour's (+700). In a clash between two sides with little going for them, Rashica should go largely overlooked despite his consistency and upside against a terrible Brentford backline.
Neal Maupay, FWD/MID, Brighton
FanDuel Salary: $15
Brighton and Newcastle enter Saturday's clash heading in opposite directions after drastically different starts to their seasons. Newcastle is one of the hottest teams in the league since January, with four wins and one draw over their last five fixtures. Brighton has lost their last three matches by a combined score of 7-0. Newcastle should be the more popular of the two sides this weekend based on recent form, but Brighton remains slight favorites, per oddsmakers.
Brighton's struggles should keep eyes off of Maupay, who has cooled off significantly since his impressive start to the season but still has two games of 20.0-plus FanDuel points over his last five starts. Newcastle has conceded just three goals in their last six fixtures, but despite that, Maupay's odds to score (+185) are comparable to those of Kai Havertz ($17; +185) and Mason Mount ($20; +195).
Even with Brighton's poor form, Maupay's salary is too low for his potential on a tightly contested slate that is lacking heavy favorites. While Newcastle commands attention following their turnaround, consider going with the on-paper favorite in large-field tournaments.
John McGinn, FWD/MID, Aston Villa
FanDuel Salary: $14
Saturday's meeting between Aston Villa and Southampton is an intriguing fixture. Southampton has just one loss in their last 13 fixtures but is slight underdogs against a Villa side with just one win in their last four. Following their impressive two-goal win over West Ham, Southampton should be the more popular side this weekend, with seven goals for and just one against across their last three matches.
Villa stopped their poor run of form with a two-goal win against Brighton last weekend and remains the home favorite in this one despite Southampton's recent results. McGinn has been a consistent contributor on both sides of the ball and has a solid DFS floor to prove it, with double-digit FanDuel points in 10 of his last 12 starts.
His role on set pieces elevates his floor, but McGinn has been shooting the ball more recently, as well, with six shots combined over his last three fixtures. As a key cog on a slight home favorite that is likely to go overlooked, McGinn is worth consideration on Saturday.
