FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 4/16/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Brentford (+150) at Watford (+190)
Over 2.5 Goals: +114 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+145)
Norwich (+1200) at Manchester United (-460)
Over 2.5 Goals: -205 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (-210)
Arsenal (-105) at Southampton (+270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -122 | Most Likely to Score: Lacazette (+135)
Matchweek 33 features two big-six sides -- Manchester United and Arsenal -- in action on a three-game main slate. Manchester United (-460 to win) is the largest favorite on the slate, and Cristiano Ronaldo ($22) has the best odds to score (-210) of anyone expected to be active on Saturday.
Arsenal (-105) is the second-biggest favorite, with Brentford (+150) rounding out the slate as slight road favorites.
Saturday's presents an interesting dynamic where Manchester United are very heavy favorites at a time when their form -- and the public's opinion of them -- is near rock bottom. This may cause their stars to be closer in draft percentage to Arsenal's despite the large difference in expected outcome on paper. Norwich is on the verge of being relegated but have slightly turned things around recently, with a draw and a win in their last two fixtures. Manchester United should cruise here, but in their current form, that is far from a safe bet.
With that in mind, here are two players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Christian Eriksen, FWD/MID, Brentford
FanDuel Salary: $17
Eriksen has begun to find his form after his return to the Premier League in late February. He has FanDuel outputs of 20.8, 39.4, and 19.3 over his last three games and appears to have locked down the majority of Brentford's set-piece opportunities. At a salary of $17, he may go overlooked with both Arsenal and Manchester United in good matchups.
Brentford enters Saturday off back-to-back wins and will face a Watford side that has lost four of their last five by a combined score of 13 goals to 4 goals. Following Norwich's recent turnaround, Brentford may have the most advantageous matchup of any of the favorites this weekend, which bodes well for Eriksen's role in his current form.
At +200 to score, Eriksen's odds are only slightly worse than those of Jadon Sancho ($17; +170) and are even with those of Gabriel Martinelli ($15). On a short slate where all eyes will be on two out-of-form sides, consider pairing Eriksen with Ivan Toney ($19) to exploit a struggling Watford team.
Mohamed Elyounoussi, FWD/MID, Southampton
FanDuel Salary: $13
While Manchester United's struggles have been well documented, Arsenal has returned to their early-season struggles after their mid-season turnaround. They have lost two in a row and three of their last four, with two of those losses coming against Crystal Palace and Brighton. Southampton's form is awful, with four losses and a draw in their last five matches, but they have scored in 13 of their 16 home fixtures this season, including 12 of their last 13.
Elyounoussi has been decently consistent this season despite Southampton's roller-coaster form. He has at least 15.0 FanDuel points in five of his last nine matches, with seven shots taken over his last four appearances. James Ward-Prowse ($17) will deservedly command almost all the attention Southampton's starters receive this weekend, which should allow Elyounoussi to fly completely under the radar.
While Elyounoussi's odds to score (+480) are long, they aren't that much worse than Ward-Prowse's (+400), and he should be available at a fraction of the draft percentage.
On a short slate where a single goal can be enough to be a difference-maker for large-field tournaments, Elyounoussi is worth consideration versus an Arsenal side whose recent struggles may be overlooked with all the focus on Manchester United's ongoing collapse.