FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Wednesday 5/11/22
Chelsea (-155) at Leeds (+400)
Over 2.5 Goals: -152 | Most Likely to Score: Lukaku (+135)
Norwich (+600) at Leicester (-240)
Over 2.5 Goals: -166 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (-150)
Everton (-145) at Watford (+400)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+105)
Manchester City (-410) at Wolves (+1200)
Over 2.5 Goals: -144 | Most Likely to Score: Mahrez (+115)
This four-match slate could be full of goals as three of the matches are at least -144 to go over 2.5 goals.
Even in a tough road matchup at Wolves, Manchester City are the slate's biggest favorite (-410 to win). However, Wolves have been a bit of a bogey side for City in recent seasons as City have won just four of the last eight matches between the two. Still, Pep Guardiola's team is -280 to score at least twice and +125 to get three-plus goals -- both of which are slate-best marks -- and with City in a title race, we should see their best on Wednesday. Stack away.
Riyad Mahrez ($18; +115 to score) has City's best goal odds and is an enticing -180 to either score or assist a goal. Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +170) is -175 to score or assist and continues to be in stellar form. Phil Foden ($18; +170), Jack Grealish ($16; +200), Gabriel Jesus ($19), Raheem Sterling ($19; +155) and Bernardo Silva ($17; +340) are all quality plays if they start.
Leicester are the other team I definitely want exposure to. The Foxes are -240 home favorites against a relegated Norwich team. In truth, neither side has much to play for, so starting lineups could get weird. But Leicester are an eye-catching -230 to score at least twice and +150 to get three-plus goals versus a Canaries side that has shipped goals all season long.
Jamie Vardy ($20; -150) has the slate's best goal odds and will be on penalties. He offers a huge ceiling if he's in the lineup. If he's not, Preston Daka ($14; -110) would likely start in a number-nine role and become a smashing point-per-dollar play. Ademola Lookman ($13; +155) and James Maddison ($17; +170) make sense as pivots off the Vardy chalk. Lookman could start in the front three while Maddison handles a lot of set-piece work and pairs that with solid goal odds.
Chelsea and Everton are both favorites against sides near the bottom of the table. Of the two, I almost prefer Everton, but the numbers point to Chelsea.
The Blues are -175 to score at least twice, compared to Everton's clip of -140. My hesitations -- other than Chelsea's hard-to-trust form -- are that Leeds would love to make this an ugly, low-chance game as they fight to stay up, and Elland Road will be rocking. Also, Chelsea have an FA Cup final against Liverpool on Saturday, so they might opt to rest some players.
Romelu Lukaku ($19; +135) got a start last weekend and netted two goals. With the masses likely to allocate salary to Vardy and City's stars, Lukaku could fly under the radar a bit -- and the same can be said for any other high-salary players on this slate. Kai Havertz ($18; +155) and Mason Mount ($20; +210) are good Chelsea plays, too.
Everton's Richarlison ($17; +130) stands out as the Toffees' top option. While Everton have a good shot to stay up, they're not out of the woods by any means, so they have supreme motivation to get all three points at Watford. The Hornets, on the other hand, cemented their relegation last weekend and have ruled out a ton of players -- 10 to be exact -- for this clash.
Added time -- Raphinha ($17; +340) is a bet-on-talent GPP play who will surely go overlooked on this slate. Chelsea's defense has stumbled of late, and much of what Leeds create Wednesday will likely funnel through their stud winger. ... Trincao ($12; +750) is a longshot to score against City, but the Barcelona loanee was superb as a sub for Wolves at Chelsea last weekend and may get a start in this one. He's a decent value pick. ... Joao Pedro ($12; +500) is another value option. Everton's defense has allowed at least 1.2 expected goals, per FBRef, in five of their last seven matches.
With so many good attacking options, I want to save salary at defender. The two best places to do that should be Wolves and Watford.
Let's start with Wolves. At home to City, Wolves' backline will be very busy. Conor Coady ($10) and Willy Boly ($9) both got a bump in salary after big games last weekend, but they're still fantastic point-per-dollar plays with a sturdy floor.
Watford's aforementioned injury situation will give us some low-salary starters in defense. As of now, Adam Masina ($8), William Troost-Ekong ($7), Craig Cathcart ($8) and Jeremy Ngakia ($6) are listed as probable starters. I prefer whoever winds up as the center-backs.
In terms of high-upside plays, Marcos Alonso ($15), Reece James ($14) and Joao Cancelo ($15) are the top options.
Added time -- Oleksandr Zinchenko ($9) will probably start at left-back with City dealing with injuries in defense. ... Whoever starts in defense for Leeds will be appealing as they should be active against Chelsea. Leeds don't have a defender salaried above $11, so they're a place to save coin. Jamie Shackleton ($7) is listed as an expected starter. ... Grant Hanley ($13) is averaging 15.1 FanDuel points per game for the season and should be a safe bet for 10.0 to 15.0 points at Leicester.
Ederson ($14) and Kasper Schmeichel ($12) are the best keepers for a win and/or clean sheet. They should be popular, and Schmeichel might wind up being the chalk goalie at his more economical salary.
Schmeichel is +132 to blank Norwich, and the Foxes are -240 to win. Both of those marks are the second-best clips on the slate. Leicester's D isn't in good form, surrendering three goals to Spurs and two to Everton in their last two outings, but Schmeichel checks a lot of boxes other than that.
Ederson is -128 to keep a clean sheet and -410 to win -- slate-leading marks by a wide margin. The only issue with Ederson -- and the thing that is always the hangup with rostering him -- is that he's unlikely to see much save volume, so if he allows a goal, he will likely post a single-digit FanDuel output. On the flip side, he can amass 17.0 FanDuel points via a clean-sheet win.
Added time -- Jordan Pickford ($11) has made some incredible saves during the Toffees' recent escape from the bottom three. He scored 25.5 FanDuel points last time out without getting a clean-sheet bonus, making seven total saves. He's unlikely to be that busy at Watford, but his clean-sheet (+138) and win (-145) odds are pretty nice. ... Edouard Mendy ($13) has gone three straight EPL matches without a clean sheet as the Blues' defense has faltered. Chelsea are a respectable +172 to blank Leeds, and Mendy could hit at a low draft percentage against a misfiring attack.