FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 10/1/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, and that kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Brentford (+120) at Bournemouth (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+200)
Chelsea (-120) at Crystal Palace (+350)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+140)
Brighton (+700) at Liverpool (-300)
Over 2.5 Goals: -166 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (-105)
Everton (+240) at Southampton (+115)
Over 2.5 Goals: -102 | Most Likely to Score: Adams (+195)
Newcastle (+135) at Fulham (+200)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+140)
Wolves (+310) at West Ham (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: +114 | Most Likely to Score: Antonio (+190)
There is one standout side on this slate, and it's Liverpool. The Reds are hosting Brighton and are -300 favorites. No other side is bigger than a -110 favorite. The match is -166 to go over 2.5 goals. The next-best over 2.5-goal odds for any other match is -106. The Reds are -250 to score at least two goals while no other team is better than +100 to net two-plus goals. So, yeah, Liverpool are going to be deserved chalk.
When Liverpool are in a good spot, Mohamed Salah ($22; -105 to score/-210 to get a goal or assist) is almost always super popular, and that figures to be the case once again. His -210 goal/assist odds are the slate's best, as are his -105 anytime goal odds. Salah has been a little off so far this campaign, but we know what he can do. The Egyptian has the best ceiling on the slate.
The Reds fit the stacking criteria we're seeking, and if the slate's other matches end up being low-scoring affairs, a Reds stack could be the way to take down a tournament. Darwin Nunez ($21; +105/-175), Diogo Jota ($19; +120/-150), Roberto Firmino ($18; +130/-155) and Luis Diaz ($20; +175/-110) are all viable if they start. Nunez interests me the most. His goal and goal/assist odds are awfully appealing, and I like the idea of stacking him with Diaz -- assuming those two start up front along with Salah -- as a way to get upside while pivoting from the Salah chalk.
After Liverpool, there isn't another side I feel like I have to get exposure to, so there are several viable paths to lineup construction for this slate. Cheslea have the next-best over 1.5-goal odds at a +100 clip, but that mark is not far in front of the odds for all of West Ham (+105), Southampton (+110), Newcastle (+110) and Brentford (+115).
On name recognition, the Blues might be the second-most popular side. If it looks like they'll be chalky, I'll tread lightly. However, they've been out of sorts this year, so maybe they'll go overlooked. If that's the case, I'm in. New manager Graham Potter has lucked out with the schedule and has had a good chunk of time to work with his squad since being hired. Potter's Brighton sides were superb at creating chances, and he might be able to jumpstart what had become a stale Chelsea attack. The Blues could put a few past Palace if they're clicking.
If I do go to the Blues, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($19; +140/-110) and Raheem Sterling ($19; +250/+125) will be my go-to picks.
Instead of breaking down more teams when they are all in such similar spots, I'm going to rattle off a couple of the remaining players I'm most into -- Lucas Paqueta ($15; +330/+165), Ivan Toney ($20; +200/+110), Che Adams ($17; +195/+105), Aleksandar Mitrovic ($21; +140/-105) and Dominic Solanke ($17; +230/+165).
Let's highlight West Ham's Paqueta, who is still a fairly new EPL DFS option after his late-window move from Lyon. He is a top-notch talent who might start for Brazil this winter in the World Cup. West Ham are +105 to score at least twice at home versus Wolves, and Paqueta could thrive if he's in a number-10 role. His salary is easy to like, too.
Added time -- Callum Wilson ($18; +170/+120) is expected to be fit for the match at Fulham and will probably start for Newcastle with Alexander Isak out. His goal and goal/assist odds are pretty nice. ... Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($15; +210/+160) might make his return from injury at Southampton, and if he does, he could immediately become the focal point of Everton's attack. ... James Ward-Prowse ($17; +350/+160) is a set-piece master who could go off in a soft matchup with Everton. ... Like Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen ($16; +310/+135) and Michail Antonio ($16; +190/+110) are modest-salaried ways to get a piece of favored West Ham.
Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold ($15; +160 to score or assist) and Kostas Tsimikas ($11; +220) will likely be able to push forward often against Brighton. Tsimikas comes at a friendly salary and is likely to fill in for Andrew Robertson, who is set to miss this one. We all know what Trent brings to the table. Tsimikas offers plenty of attacking juice, too, and has posted 20.0 and 13.8 FanDuel points across two EPL starts. Both are excellent stacking partners with a Liverpool attacker.
Chelsea's Marc Cucurella ($11; +370) and Reece James ($15; +240) are high-ceiling options, as well. Cucurella has created just five chances through six EPL matches but might be able to find his footing with Potter -- his manager from his time at Brighton -- taking over. James is a monster who has scored at least 18.2 FanDuel points in all but one EPL match this campaign.
Brighton's center-back trio of Adam Webster ($9), Joel Veltman ($10) and Lewis Dunk ($8) are high-floor plays against Liverpool. Dunk, in particular, is someone I will have plenty of as his aerial ability should be needed early and often against Alexander-Arnold's crossing.
Added time -- Palace's Joachim Andersen ($15) has been a fantasy behemoth this season, averaging a whopping 24.2 FanDuel points per game. He's had double-digit clearances in two straight, including 18 last time out versus Newcastle, and will likely be busy against Chelsea. ... Newcastle's defenders have all been quality DFS options. I'm most interested in Matt Targett ($10) and Kieran Trippier ($14), who can find some attacking joy against Fulham. ... We can say the same for West Ham full-backs Aaron Cresswell ($10) and Vladimir Coufal ($9).
If you're after the win and clean-sheet bonuses, you need to budget for Alisson ($14). He's -300 to win and +110 to keep a clean sheet. Both of those are slate-best marks by a good distance.
After Alisson, who the heck knows. No other keeper has clean-sheet odds that are all that good, and no one is bigger than a -120 favorite. Given how open the position is, my priority will be getting the attackers and defenders I want and going from there. I think you can talk yourself into -- and out of -- just about any keeper on the slate. Here are the three I'm most into.
Chelsea's Edouard Mendy ($13) is a fun pivot off Alisson. Mendy -- who is +145 blank Palace and -120 to win, both of which are the second-best marks on the slate -- has been in poor form this season, and he hasn't been helped by a shoddy defense. But the Blues' back line has too much talent to keep playing like this, and while Potter received a lot of praise for how his Brighton sides attacked, his teams were very stout defensively, ranking in the top six for fewest expected goals (xG) allowed in each of the last two seasons, per FBRef.
Two keepers at the same salary -- David Raya ($11) and Gavin Bazunu ($11) -- are enticing mid-range plays. I like the idea of pairing Bazunu with Adams or Raya with Toney. Goalie-attacker stacks fare well, per a study I did.
Raya makes sense in a good matchup at Bournemouth. He's +180 to keep a clean sheet, and Bourmemouth have been miserable in attack in their return to the top flight, mustering a laughable 3.3 xG through seven matches.
Bazunu gets a home date with Everton. The Toffees are a better matchup if Calvert-Lewin sits, but Southampton are a respectable +185 to keep a clean sheet.
Added time -- Robert Sanchez ($6) offers save volume against Liverpool. Brighton's defense is pretty good, and the Reds' attack has been lacking answers at times this season. It's not out of the question that Sanchez limits the damage while registering a bunch of saves, a result that would make him a smash hit at this salary. ... Lukasz Fabianski ($12) is +145 to keep a clean sheet versus Wolves and -110 to win. ... Bernd Leno ($9) is a decent shout. Newcastle will be without their top striker but should still generate chances, giving Leno the potential for save volume and a decent floor.