Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 8
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook this week?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Liverpool vs. Brighton
Draw +440
Brighton to win +700
Brighton are surprisingly four points ahead of Liverpool in the table early this season, and they are coming off an impressive 5-2 win over Leicester before the international break. Liverpool have tied Everton, Fulham and Crystal Palace, all teams that figure to finish in the bottom half of the table, and they have lost to Manchester United.
Brighton beat Manchester United as their signature win of the season thus far and are 4W-1D-1L overall, with their only loss coming away to Fulham. Brighton are +220 to win or draw, but your odds of winning are better if you make separate bets on Brighton to win and then a draw. A $100 bet on Brighton to win or draw at +220 returns $220, while a $50 bet on draw and a $50 bet on Brighton to win returns either $220 (if draw) or $350 (if Brighton wins).
It's obviously a difficult matchup, but given the form of these two this season, Brighton has a chance for at least a point in this game, and splitting the bet gives you the best chance to win.
Southampton vs. Everton
Draw +240
Everton are 1-4-2 this season, giving them better than a 50% draw rate. They have scored just five goals and have conceded six, and the low-scoring results are prone to draws.
This game figures to be an even matchup, as these teams are tied on points early this campaign. Southampton are ahead slightly on expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, at -1.5, compared to -3.8 for Everton, but both teams have been mediocre at best to start the season.
It’s difficult to expect either team to win this game outright, and both sides might be content with a draw if the score is tied late.
Fulham vs. Newcastle
Newcastle to win +135
This is an interesting matchup, as Fulham are slight underdogs at home despite being ahead of Newcastle by three points in the standings.
Of course, it is early in the season, and if we take a closer look, Fulham are perhaps the luckiest team in the EPL thus far. They are in sixth place despite a -3.3 xGD. This is the worst xGD in the top 11, and it ranks 15th overall.
Newcastle have the opposite xGD trends as Fulham, as they are perhaps one of the unluckiest teams in the league so far this season. The Magpies are in 10th place in the table despite a +3.2 xGD that ranks as the 5th-best in the league. They have done this despite facing a difficult schedule that has included Manchester City and Liverpool.
Newcastle are likely the more talented team and figure to finish ahead of Fulham in the table, so they should have a solid chance to win this game, even away from home.
