World Cup Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/29/22: Can the United States Beat Iran and Advance to the Knockout Stage?
We all know that the World Cup doesn’t come around every year, and that can make for some difficult projecting.
Team qualifying samples are small, injuries are crucial, and opponent adjustments must be made before projecting out World Cup matches.
Thankfully, we have ways to do that, and numberFire’s World Cup betting model offers up game-specific projections for each stage of the World Cup.
Here are the best bets for World Cup action on Tuesday, November 29th.
(Note: all records are listed in win-loss-draw format rather than win-draw-loss. All expected goal data from FBRef.)
Ecuador (+135) vs. Senegal (+210)
Draw odds: +210
Both sides here are very evenly matched over the long-term.
Ecuador has earned four points with an expected goal output of 2.9 while allowing just 0.4 expected goals to opponents. A win or tie will mean Ecuador advances.
Senegal bounced back from an opening loss versus the Netherlands (2-0) with a 3-1 win over Qatar. They need a win to advance.
numberFire projects a 1.05-1.05 score for this one, meaning it's into the idea of taking the goal with Senegal. Senegal +1.0 (-210) comes with heavy odds but a high probability (66.7%, via numberFire's model).
Netherlands (-600) vs. Qatar (+1400)
Draw odds: +600
A win or tie means advancing for the Netherlands against a Qatar side that has no points through two matches and thus cannot advance.
While a tie alone will put the Netherlands through, draw odds are still +600, and the Netherlands can avoid disaster by putting this one away early if possible.
The Netherlands did earn a 1-1 draw against Ecuador in their second match but lost the expected goal battle handily (1.7 to 0.1).
Still, Qatar has totaled 1.37 opponent-adjusted expected goals (per my adjustments) and surrendered 2.23.
Given the huge spread (2.0 goals) and heavy moneyline odds, the only action recommendation here is the under (3.5) even at -178 odds.
Iran (+310) vs. United States (-105)
Draw odds: +240
With a win, the United States will advance. With a loss or draw, their World Cup is over.
For Iran, a win will push them through, and a loss will boot them. A draw can be enough, assuming Wales loses to England.
My opponent-adjusted data has the United States with a total of 1.50 expected goals scored and 2.50 expected goals allowed. Those marks for Iran are 3.20 and 2.77, respectively.
numberFire's only preferred bet here is Iran +1.0 (-125), as the US moneyline (-105) is very fair.
Wales (+650) vs. England (-230)
Draw odds: +340
A win or tie for England will get them through, and even a loss might not end their World Cup, given a +4 goal differential entering this match.
For Wales, they'll need a win and tie-breaker help.
numberFire's model views England as 78.5% likely to get the win and clinch on their own.
That's enough for England's moneyline (-230) to be a three-star recommendation; however, with the fact that England can advance with a draw and could dominate possession, under 2.5 goals (-116) looks like the best play here.