FanDuel World Cup Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 11/30/22
The World Cup is the biggest sporting event on the planet, and FanDuel is offering daily fantasy contests throughout the tournament.
For the final round of the group stage, main slates will feature all four of the day’s matches, which are scheduled to start at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. EST.
Denmark (-200) vs. Australia (+550)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Dolberg/Cornelius/Wind (+155)
France (-230) vs. Tunisia (+700)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Mbappe (+110)
Argentina (-220) vs. Poland (+650)
Over 2.5 Goals: +120 | Most Likely to Score: Messi (+125)
Mexico (-150) vs. Saudi Arabia (+380)
Over 2.5 Goals: -120 | Most Likely to Score: Lozano/Jimenez (+140)
The two sides I most want exposure to -- France and Denmark -- play in the first window, which means we'll know their starting lineups when the slate locks.
France have already qualified for the Round of 16. In all likelihood, they need only a draw to win the group, so it's fair to question if France will go for the jugular if they get out to a lead. But if France -- who have amassed a staggering and tourney-best 6.4 expected goals (xG) through two rounds, per FBRef -- give it a go for the full 90, they can thrash Tunisia. The French are a slate-leading -200 to go over 1.5 goals.
Kylian Mbappe ($21; +110) might wind up with the slate's highest draft percentage. He deserves it, though. He's bagged three goals through two matches, is averaging 47.5 FanDuel points and is on penalties. His upside is through the roof against an overmatched Tunisia side. Olivier Giroud ($19; +130), Ousmane Dembele ($18; +250) and Antoine Griezmann ($20; +200) are all high-ceiling plays, as well. I'm tempted to fade the Mbappe chalk and roster two of those three.
As for Denmark, I think there's a chance they won't be as popular as they should be due to the presence of France and Argentina on the slate. There's a lot to like about the Danes versus Australia. Denmark are -175 to go over 1.5 goals, which is the second-best clip on the slate, and our model really likes them, projecting Denmark to net a slate-best 2.35 goals.
Among Denmark's projected starters, per WhoScored, Andreas Cornelius ($17; +155) has the top goal odds. Christian Eriksen ($18; +220) and Jesper Lindstrom ($11; +260) need to be on our radars, as well. In a game in which Denmark will likely have a lot of the ball, Eriksen is an appealing option. Lindstrom is one of the better value targets.
Whenever Lionel Messi ($22; +125) is on a slate, he's going to attract attention. I'm inclined to fade him, though. Messi is Messi, so this could backfire spectacularly. He's already got two goals and an assist. But compared to Denmark and France, Argentina -- who are -154 to score twice and who our model projects for 1.32 goals, the fewest among the slate's four favorites -- just don't get me all that excited. They created an ugly 0.3 xG against Mexico, getting rescued by two stellar strikes, and a Poland squad that has yet to concede is far from a pushover.
If you're more into Argentina than I am yet still want to dodge the Messi chalk, Lautaro Martinez ($18; +165) is your man. The goal odds aren't that much worse than Messi's, and Martinez won't be nearly as popular as Messi is. The $4 salary difference is nice, too.
Saudi Arabia's opening-match upset of Argentina was a fun story, but they've now conceded 3.7 xG through two outings, the sixth-most in the tourney. They're not good, and I want to get a piece of Mexico more than I do Argentina.
Mexico are -149 to go over 1.5 goals and are projected to net 1.41 goals, per our numbers. This is a sneaky-good spot for them, and potential tiebreakers give Mexico an incentive to keep scoring as much as they can. My preference is Hirving Lozano ($18; +140), who carries Mexico's best goal odds. Alexis Vega ($15; +160) is worth a shout, too.
Poland's Robert Lewandowski ($19; +340) is a fun option. He's one of the best strikers in the world, so he won't go completely overlooked. At the same time, Poland are a sizable underdog to Argentina, so he's not going to be all that popular. Lewa is good enough to take advantage of whatever chances fall his way, and he'll take penalties.
Given the attacking talent on this slate, I'm going to pinch pennies at defender.
Tunisia's Dylan Bronn ($8) and Mohamed Drager ($9) should be busy against France, giving them solid floors. You can say the same for Australia's Harry Souttar ($10) in his date with Denmark. Poland's Bartosz Bereszynski ($9) fits that bill, too.
France's Benjamin Pavard ($9) is a low-salary way to get a piece of a big favorite, and at +230 to score/assist, he offers attacking upside. While Pavard didn't create a single chance in his lone start and mustered only 1.3 FanDuel points, he should be in for a better day against Tunisia.
Joakim Maehle ($11) is a fantastic play if you have a little more salary to use at defender. He's +135 to score or assist and should be able to get forward early and often for Denmark.
Going by the betting numbers, Emiliano Martinez ($12) is super easy to get behind. He's a slate-best -133 to keep a clean sheet versus Poland, and Argentina are the slate's second-biggest favorite (-220). Plus, his salary isn't that hard to get to.
However, as I laid out above, I'm just not that into Argentina. Our model has Poland projected for 0.93 goals -- by far the most of the underdogs -- and given all the betting info I just rattled off, Martinez will likely be popular. I'll mostly stay away.
I'm more into Mexico's Guillermo Ochoa ($11). Mexico are only +130 to blank Saudi Arabia, but Mexico have surrendered just 1.3 xG through two rounds. I think Ochoa offers a good mix of potential save volume as well as respectable clean-sheet and win odds, giving him a sky-high ceiling should it all come together (read: a clean-sheet win with multiple saves).
Hugo Lloris ($14) and Kasper Schmeichel ($13) are quality choices at the top of the salary pool. France are -230 to win and -111 to keep a clean sheet. Denmark are -110 to keep a clean sheet and -220 to win. Between the two, I side with Lloris.
Of the underdog goalies, Poland's Wojciech Szczesny ($9) is the one I'm most into. Our projections have Argentina netting the fewest goals (1.32) among the favorites. With Poland needing just a tie to advance, the longer the match goes at 0-0, the more Poland will pack it in and play defensively.