Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 20
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Manchester United vs. Manchester City
Manchester City to win -120
Manchester City made up slight ground on Arsenal in the title race during the last match day, winning away to Chelsea 1-0 while Arsenal drew 0-0 against Newcastle. However, City still trail the Gunners by five points in the table, and they need every point possible in order to capture the title.
City will be attack-minded and pushing hard for three points on Saturday despite a tough away fixture at fourth-placed United. City should be able to pull it off.
City are well ahead of United on goal difference (+29 to +7) and expected goal difference (+23.4 to +6.2). City already defeated United 6-3 at home earlier this season, and United were down 6-1 before salvaging two late goals.
City have the potential to dominate United if they play their best, and they will likely be on their game considering the importance of the match.
Brighton vs. Liverpool
Brighton to win +230
Liverpool are still favorites on the road against a top-eight side mostly because of their past accomplishments -- not because of what the Reds have achieved this season.
Liverpool are only 8W-4D-5L this year, putting them in sixth place and giving them less than a 50% win rate.
Brighton are only one point behind Liverpool this season at 8W-3D-6L, and given their home-field advantage, Brighton should be getting more respect from the oddsmakers. We are essentially halfway through the season, so there is a large enough sample size to indicate the gap between these two sides is not as large as we perceived it to be in the preseason.
Liverpool are on the downswing and are not the side they have been in recent years. Brighton should expect to at least draw this game at home, if not win it.
Everton vs. Southampton
Southampton to win +230
This game features two teams in the heat of the relegation battle. Southampton are currently in last place with only 12 points, and Everton are not much better, sitting in 18th place with just 15 points.
Southampton, however, are grading out much better in the predictive metrics, with a -5.5 expected goal differential, compared to an -11.6 clip for Everton.
Everton have home-field advantage, but they have been just about as bad at home (eight points in nine matches) as they have been on the road (seven points in nine matches).
Southampton have had a bit of bad luck this season, and they know they need points in this match in their fight against relegation.
We should expect a very close game, with Southampton maybe even getting a slight edge as they look to turn around their season.