Daily Fantasy UFC: Stats, Data, and Betting Odds for UFC 251
Fight Island is real. And it's finally here. Let's party, everybody.
UFC 251 is set to take place on Fight Island on Saturday, and there are 13 fights scheduled for the card. It comes with some unique circumstances for daily fantasy.
The first -- and most impactful -- is that there are three five-round fights whereas most of the previous slates have had just one. This gives us a higher volume expectation, an increase of 60% from the three-round fights.
Those five-round fights are between Kamaru Usman ($22 on FanDuel) and Jorge Masvidal ($18), Petr Yan ($19) and Jose Aldo ($14), and Alexander Volkanovski ($18) and Max Holloway ($16). The Usman versus Masvidal fight seems to be the only one of the bunch that got a salary bump, meaning the other two fights could be high-priority DFS targets.
Second, the octagon on Fight Island is a 30-foot cage, down from the 25-foot cage that was in use for the past couple of cards in Las Vegas. This has led to lower knockout or submission odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, decreasing the number of fights we should expect to end early. Amanda Ribas ($20) isn't in a five-round fight, but she is the only fighter on the slate with knockout or submission odds at 50.0% or higher, and she's spot on that number.
Those double-chance odds are listed in the table below along with each fighter's moneyline win odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. The vig has been taken out of the moneyline odds, and once you do that, Ribas is the only fighter with win odds higher than 75.0%.
In addition to the ever-important betting odds are individual statistics via UFCStats.com. Submission attempts, takedowns, and significant strikes are all things that directly lead to FanDuel points and are listed in the table below. Submissions (SubAp15) and takedowns (TDp15) are on a per-15-minute scale while significant strikes (SSLPM) are per-minute. All three are scaled to a per-minute perspective and to the FanDuel points tied to them in the FanDuel points per minute (FDPPM) column.
The other stats listed are takedown defense for both the fighter and their opponent. You also earn points for a successfully defended takedown attempt, and this can show us which fighters may be able to get their opponents on the mat.
From a sample size perspective, it's worth noting this is the first UFC fight for Maxim Grishin ($16), Jiri Prochazka ($15), Zhalgas Zhamagulov ($13), and Roman Bogatov ($12). Martin Day ($17) and Karol Rosa ($16) have just one fight in their sample, and the sample on Vanessa Melo ($10) is just two fights.
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary | WinOdds | KO/SubOdds | SubAp15 | TDp15 | oTDD% | TDD% | SSLPM | FDPPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | Jorge Masvidal | $22 | 70.4% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 3.44 | 78% | 100% | 4.60 | 1.72 |
| Amanda Ribas | Paige Vanzant | $20 | 88.3% | 50.0% | 1.6 | 2.02 | 35% | 85% | 4.84 | 1.63 |
| Petr Yan | Jose Aldo | $19 | 68.2% | 45.5% | 0.2 | 1.73 | 91% | 87% | 5.65 | 1.10 |
| Leonardo Santos | Roman Bogatov | $19 | 62.1% | 40.8% | 0.4 | 1.10 | -- | 86% | 2.40 | 0.72 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | Danny Henry | $19 | 66.4% | 46.5% | 1.5 | 3.39 | 66% | 57% | 1.60 | 1.95 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | Max Holloway | $18 | 65.3% | 24.40% | 0.4 | 2.16 | 85% | 72% | 6.15 | 1.37 |
| Raulian Paiva | Zhalgas Zhamagulov | $18 | 62.4% | 26.3% | 0.3 | 0.35 | -- | 79% | 4.81 | 0.53 |
| Jorge Masvidal | Kamaru Usman | $18 | 29.6% | 27.8% | 0.4 | 1.70 | 100% | 78% | 4.33 | 1.07 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | Jiri Prochazka | $17 | 59.3% | 45.5% | 0.0 | 0.39 | -- | 80% | 4.88 | 0.45 |
| Rose Namajunas | Jessica Andrade | $17 | 64.3% | 31.3% | 0.9 | 2.17 | 76% | 46% | 3.95 | 1.41 |
| Martin Day | Davey Grant | $17 | 62.1% | 28.6% | 1.0 | 1.00 | 64% | 85% | 5.60 | 1.07 |
| Maxim Grishin | Marcin Tybura | $16 | 50.0% | -- | -- | -- | 82% | -- | -- | -- |
| Karol Rosa | Vanessa Melo | $16 | 67.4% | 21.3% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 77% | 100% | 11.40 | 0.68 |
| Max Holloway | Alexander Volkanovski | $16 | 34.7% | 18.5% | 0.4 | 0.24 | 72% | 85% | 6.66 | 0.63 |
| Muslim Salikhov | Elizeu dos Santos | $16 | 55.8% | 40.8% | 0.0 | 1.22 | 48% | 72% | 2.92 | 0.66 |
| Jiri Prochazka | Volkan Oezdemir | $15 | 40.7% | 30.3% | -- | -- | 80% | -- | -- | -- |
| Elizeu dos Santos | Muslim Salikhov | $15 | 44.20% | 20.80% | 0.5 | 0.65 | 72% | 48% | 4.17 | 0.68 |
| Marcin Tybura | Maxim Grishin | $14 | 50.0% | -- | 0.1 | 1.54 | -- | 82% | 3.52 | 0.86 |
| Jose Aldo | Petr Yan | $14 | 31.8% | 20.8% | 0.1 | 0.64 | 87% | 91% | 3.47 | 0.50 |
| Davey Grant | Martin Day | $14 | 37.9% | 13.30% | 0.0 | 2.64 | 85% | 64% | 3.13 | 1.24 |
| Zhalgas Zhamagulov | Raulian Paiva | $13 | 37.6% | 13.3% | -- | -- | 79% | -- | -- | -- |
| Jessica Andrade | Rose Namajunas | $13 | 35.7% | 21.7% | 0.5 | 3.21 | 46% | 76% | 6.55 | 1.84 |
| Roman Bogatov | Leonardo Santos | $12 | 37.9% | 13.3% | -- | -- | 86% | -- | -- | -- |
| Danny Henry | Makwan Amirkhani | $11 | 33.6% | 23.3% | 2.7 | 0.89 | 57% | 66% | 5.85 | 1.61 |
| Vanessa Melo | Karol Rosa | $10 | 32.6% | 16.7% | 0.0 | 0.00 | 100% | 77% | 3.6 | 0.22 |
| Paige Vanzant | Amanda Ribas | $10 | 11.7% | 8.3% | 1.0 | 1.31 | 85% | 35% | 3.4 | 1.06 |
As a reminder, we need to take a long look at the three five-round fights to see if we can find value there. After that, dig hard to find some fighters who may be able to scrounge out those early-win bumps, which may be tough on this specific card. But those two aspects are key on all UFC DFS slates, and they'll be especially big on Saturday night.
