Betting Guide for UFC 257
After a year-long wait, former lightweight champion Conor McGregor will step back into the octagon this Saturday night, in a rematch with former interim lightweight titleholder Dustin Poirer. McGregor won their first meeting by first-round TKO, but that was all the way back in 2014 and took place at featherweight. Both fighters have grown in terms of both size and skill since then, and now we will get to see how they matchup in the present time.
There is no shortage of hype for the co-main event either, as former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler will make his long-awaited UFC debut against Dan Hooker, who most recently dropped a five-round decision to Poirier back in June.
It is always a spectacle when the McGregor show is in town, and FanDuel Sportsbook has plenty of odds: outright winners, method of victory, and more.
Let's take a look at the best bets to make.
Conor McGregor (-330) vs. Dustin Poirer (+265)
Conor McGregor To Win By KO/TKO (-195)
Pat's Super Boost - Conor McGregor To Win By KO/TKO In Rounds 1 or 2 (+140)
McGregor is the favorite here for a reason -- when he's on his game, he is one of the best strikers in the UFC. In fact, as our friends at MMA By The Numbers pointed out, McGregor has the least fight time of anyone in UFC unified rules era with more than 10 knockdowns. He has also shown no problems with finishing opponents, as 8 of his 10 UFC wins have come via KO/TKO.
The issue here is that -330 is a big line, and McGregor's lines tend to be inflated due to his popularity. But he has already finished Poirier once, and three of Poirier's other four UFC losses also came inside the distance.
The bet to make here is McGregor winning by KO/TKO at -195. And thanks to Pat Mcafee, McGregor winning by KO/TKO inside the first two rounds has been boosted from -125 to +140.
Dan Hooker (-136) vs. Michael Chander (+116)
Total Rounds Over 2.5 (-112)
Michael Chandler to win by KO/TKO or on Points (+170)
Hooker's loss to Poirier in his most recent fight snapped his three-fight winning streak but also showed that he is ready to compete with the top tier of the UFC's lightweight division. He went the full five rounds with Poirier and actually outlanded him by 155 significant strikes to 153. Hooker also landed 4-of-9 takedowns while stuffing 6-of-7 takedowns he faced. That was his third straight fight to go to a decision.
Across the octagon, Chandler is looking to get his feet wet in the UFC following a 10-year stint in Bellator. He closed his career there with 9 wins over his past 11 fights, with the 2 losses coming to Brent Primus via nerve damage from leg kicks and an early knockout at the hands of Patricio Friere.
With this being Chandler's first UFC fight, he will likely be looking to make a statement but also focused on not getting knocked out early.
The bet to make in this fight is for the fight to last more than 2.5 rounds, which is priced at -112. And at FandDuel Sportsbook, the odds of Chandler winning by KO/TKO or on points has been boosted from +135 to +170. Considering seven of his past eight wins have come via either KO/TKO or decision, and Hooker has not been submitted since 2012, it's a solid boost that covers two likely outcomes.
Movsar Evloev (-560) vs. Nik Lentz (+420)
Movsar Evloev To Win By Points (-140)
At -560, Movsar Evloev should be used as a parlay piece but is clearly too big of a favorite to bet straight up. However, all three of his UFC fights have gone the distance, and seven of his past eight fights in general have gone at least a full three rounds. And on the other side, three of Nik Lentz's past four losses have come via decision. The one outlier was his second loss to Charles Oliveira, who is likely looking at a lightweight title shot in the near future.
This fight is priced at -200 to go the distance, meaning that it is unlikely to finish inside three rounds. With an Evloev decision win being the most likely outcome, betting it at -140 offers great value compared to his -560 money line.