Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane
The UFC's heavyweight division will once more get some clarity at the top, as the headliner for this weekend's card is a matchup between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and the undefeated Ciryl Gane. Both are ranked in the top seven in the division.
But in total, there are 11 fights on this card between the prelims and the main card, so there isn't a shortage of betting options over at FanDuel Sportsbook. That includes outright winners, round props, and all types of finish variations.
Which fights show some of the best opportunities for winning our bets? Let's check it out.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Ciryl Gane
The main event of the evening features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-1-0) against Ciryl Gane (7-0-0) in the heavyweight division. Again, Rozenstruik is ranked fourth in the division, while Gane is seventh.
The kickboxing Rozenstruik has won five of six bouts in the UFC, his lone loss coming on a 20-second knockout loss to Francis Ngannou, the current number-one contender in the division, back in May of 2020. Rozenstruik, though, has never been the higher-ranked fighter in any of his UFC bouts to date. This will change that.
Of note, Rozenstruik has had every fight thus far in the UFC end with a KO/TKO, and only one of his six fights have lasted longer than two rounds. He has also led in strikes landed in each of his five wins.
Gane is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC but -- due to numerous fight cancellations -- has fought just once since December 2019, a second-round TKO win over Junior dos Santos on December 12th. He has easily led each of his fights in strikes landed, though just one of his four fights ended in the first round.
Via UFCStats, Gane holds an edge in most of the key offensive stats, including strikes landed per minute (5.61 to 4.04) and takedowns per 15 minutes (1.08 to 0.00).
With the well-rounded Gane a -290 favorite (implying 74.4% win odds), he's a heavy favorite. Heavyweights with -290 odds or better since 2010 have won 74.0% of their fights. It's still the preferred play.
What's easier to like is Ciryl Gane to win within the first three rounds +140. The smaller octagon at the UFC Apex facility has led to an uptick in fights ending early, and these fighters are quite unlikely to get to round four and beyond.
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Montana De La Rosa
This main-card women's flyweight bout comes with some pretty even odds. Mayra Bueno Silva is a -142 favorite with Montana De La Rosa coming in as a +120 underdog.
De La Rosa has lost two of her last three fights, and each of her past three have gone to unanimous decisions. Her losses were to Andrea Lee, currently ranked 12th in the division, and Viviane Araújo, currently ranked 7th. Her win came against Mara Romero Borella, who has dropped five of six fights, including her most recent fight from September: a first-round armbar submission loss to none other than Silva.
Silva sports a 7-1-0 professional record with a 2-1-0 UFC record officially. Her loss went to a unanimous decision. Of her eight professional fights, only two have gone to the second round, and she has recorded five first-round submission victories.
Silva's still dealing with a small UFC sample (which includes a win in the contender series) but has recorded a 71% takedown defense, which would easily rank best in the division if she qualified (the actual leader is at 58%). De La Rosa's got eight wins by submission, but she could struggle to control the ground game if Silva's superior striking (4.44 significant strikes per minute to De La Rosa's 3.30) keeps her at bay.
De La Rosa's average fight time is 11:30, while Silva's have clocked in at 5:52. De La Rosa could gain an edge late in the fight if conditioning comes into play, but this more sets up in the favorite's favor.
Silva outright comes with solid odds at -140, and that's most appealing from a baseline. The fight to end by submission -- 14 of their combined 25 matches have ended in a submission -- is listed at +210.
Sabino Mazo vs. Alexis Davis
The 23-year-old Sabina Mazo brings with her a three-match fight streak against the 36-year-old Alexis Davis, who is on a three-match losing streak of her own (all by unanimous decisions). Davis hasn't actually fought since UFC 240 in July of 2019.
Davis has a fairly storied history overall, one that includes a title match against Ronda Rousey (that lasted only 16 seconds), but she went only 1-3 as a flyweight and is now back up to bantamweight, which will be -- coincidentally -- Mazo's first bantamweight fight. Mazo prepped to become a new fighter in the 135-pound class, though, so it's not a rushed change.
Mazo has averaged 7.14 significant strikes per minute over her four UFC fights in the flyweight division. The flyweight leader (minimum of five fights) has averaged 7.2. Davis, meanwhile, averages 4.27 strikes per minute but is at a disadvantage in takedowns per 15 minutes (1.02 to 0.74).
Davis' past five fights have gone to a decision, and three of Mazo's four have gone to a decision (and all have gone to the third round; including her rear-naked choke win over Justine Kish in her most recent fight from September).
The stats and general form point to value on Mazo (-215), and there's some smart money laid in this match. Via oddsFire, Davis is receiving 57% of the bets but only 31% of the money. That puts Mazo's money percentage at a very nice 69%. Mazo has the goal of a finish, and she's listed as +470 to win within the first two rounds.
