Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 30
This weekend, we get UFC Vegas 30 (a.ka. UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov, a.k.a. UFC Fight Night 190, a.k.a UFC on ESPN+ 48) that ends with two heavyweight bouts.
In those fights, we have some moderate favorites. Cyril Gane is a -172 favorite over Alexander Volkov at FanDuel Sportsbook, and Tanner Boser is a -178 favorite over Ovince Saint Preux.
Are those the best spots to look for value, or is the preliminary card looking better?
Cyril Gane (-172) vs. Alexander Volkov (+144)
Cyril Gane (8-0-0) and Alexander Volkov (33-8-0) headline the card, and we're seeing the betting public back Gane by way of 68% of the money across all bets on this fight going on Gane, per oddsFire.
Gane, as obvious by his record, has an eight-fight win streak and has recorded six early stoppages, three each by knockout and submission.
Volkov, despite 8 losses across a long career, has been finished early in only 4 of 41 fights. He has consecutive second-round technical knockout (TKO) victories over Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem.
In all, my model gives Gane a 63.0% chance to get the win, making him virtually a dead even value at the -172 odds. I'd like to see more there, but a lot points to Gane to win -- including superior striking data (specifically defensively) and takedowns landed per 15 minute in the UFC, via UFCStats -- and I'm not about to bail on a solid favorite here.
Of the public picks at Tapology, 62% are on Gane, in line with my model's predictions and the moneyline.
For added value opportunities, we should look for the fight to end by points. The consensus picks are leaning heavily on this fight to go the distance, suggesting the fight to end by points should be -142 -- but it's available at -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Raoni Barcelos (-225) vs. Timur Valiev (+188)
I don't usually like backing bigger favorites, but I'm certainly not seeing any reason not to like Raoni Barcelos (16-1-0) against Timur Valiev (17-2-0).
My model gives Barcelos a 76.2% chance to win, which outperforms the implied moneyline odds of 69.2%. Also, oddsFire shows 91% of the money on this fight siding with Barcelos.
Barcelos has won nine straight fights and is 5-0-0 in the UFC while scoring three early finishes in those five bouts.
Valiev has won seven straight fights if we exclude the no contest against Trevin Jones (which Jones won but was overturned after he tested positive for marijuana). We have a 1-0-0 (1 no contest) record for Valiev in the UFC as a result.
Notably, 12 of Valiev's 20 career fights have ended by decision, and Barcelos has gone the distance in 6 of 17 fights.
I'm taking Barcelos outright, of course, but the best alternate bet looks to be the fight to go to points. The public at Tapology is seeing this fight going to decision 77.4% of the time, suggesting odds of -342. We can bet that at -220.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-120) vs. Danilo Marques (+102)
Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-1-0) is a -120 favorite over Danilo Marques (11-2-0), but that's really not steep enough, according to my model.
My algorithm has Nzechukwu winning this fight 67.6% of the time, easily besting the implied odds of the moneyline (54.6%). He is getting 58% of the money and 80% of the wagers for this fight.
Marques is 2-0-0 in the UFC and has a submission victory in his last fight.
At the UFC level (with two fights at the Dana White Contender Series), Nzechukwu is 4-1-0 himself and is coming off a second-round knockout of his own.
The consensus picks are showing value on Nzechukwu to win by KO/TKO. The picks suggest he should be -132 to win that way, and FanDuel Sportsbook lists Nzechukwu by KO/TKO at +190.