Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 36
With Saturday's card originally scheduled for London, there is a British flair throughout the bouts, with a total of five fighters from the United Kingdom stepping into the Octagon.
UFC Vegas 36: Brunson vs. Till takes place Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. So where is is the sharpest place to wager on Saturday's card using UFC odds?
Jack Shore to Win By KO/TKO/Submission/DQ (-120)
Operating as the Welsh representative on Saturday's "London" card, "Tank" Jack Shore is looking for his fourth consecutive UFC win to open his career. As a -500 moneyline favorite, there is an 83.3% implied probability Shore does just that.
In such a lopsided fight, it is a little surprising Shore's just -120 inside-the-distance for Saturday. Shore has two submission wins in three UFC fights, and at least three takedowns and fives minutes in control time in all three fights, which should also provide potential mount opportunities for his strong top game to find a knockout.
With all due respect to Liudvik Sholinian stepping in on injury replacement, the Ukraine native failed to win The Ultimate Fighter this season for a reason, which especially came back to his limited striking. He enters with a wrestling base against the No. 26 bantamweight in the world who also primarily wrestles, and that is recipe for disaster for a debutant in this matchup.
Shore's odds are too long to bet outright, and there is significant risk to other parlay components, so the bet here is that Shore does eventually overwhelm his late-notice foe.
Molly McCann to Win (-105)
One terminal weakness can end a UFC career, and Molly McCann absolutely has one. Her 28% takedown defense has ceded 12 takedowns in two fights, which were both decisive losses.
While that issue will rear its ahead again someday, McCann is matched up with a striker that does not wrestle this weekend, and that makes for an entirely different story for "Meatball."
Ji Yeon Kim has never attempted a UFC takedown attempt, and has a 47% takedown defense herself. Interestingly, that leaves McCann with an opening to use her 1.64 takedowns per match offensively to get the fight to the mat if she chooses. McCann is not a poor wrestler, but rather only a good one when it is on her offensive terms.
McCann also has a +0.87 striking success rate as a historically passable striker, but considering she will have to overcome a 10-inch reach disadvantage against Kim, the likely strategy for the Liverpool native is to use her wrestling to control the pace of this fight, and dish out a taste of her prior opponents' medicine while doing so.
Dart Throw of the Week: Derek Brunson by Points (+500)
"The Gorilla" Darren Till was supposed to headline this event in his home country, but Derek Brunson might have ruined the show if that took place regardless.
Till and Brunson clash in Saturday's main event as ranked middleweights, but when it comes to their scoring peripherals, Brunson has been fairing far better lately. Since moving to middleweight, Till only has managed to post 1.93 significant strikes per minute in eight full rounds, and that concerning lack of striking volume -- with no takedown attempts -- has made Till's two bouts ugly, sloppy brawls.
Brunson is just simply more active, as he averages 3.46 significant strikes at middleweight but also adds 3.11 takedowns per match -- which leads all ranked UFC middleweights.
Till has been a tough man to take down at 82% historically, but he has also never faced an opponent that averaged more than 2.00 takedowns per match. With Brunson's specialty in that department, he may be able to uncover a weakness.
With a combined five of their last six wins going to decision, and Brunson likely the busier fighter, the pick is that Brunson outlasts Till in an ugly fight that sees the full distance. +152 for the fight to go all 25 minutes is solid value, but adding in Brunson to win said fight amplifies the reward considerably, and Till is unlikely to score a decision with such little volume.
Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
