Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 52
The UFC keeps its Las Vegas stint rolling, and it's headlined this weekend by explosive strawweight finishers Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos.
UFC Vegas 52: Lemos vs. Andrade takes place Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV. Where are the sharpest places to wager on the card using UFC odds?
Maycee Barber and Marc-Andre Barriault to Both Win (+130; 2.0 Units)
Miguel Baeza's increasingly suspect chin dropped the two-legger to 6-3 in 2022, but we'll look to rebound this week.
Maycee Barber (-200) seems well-positioned at a fair price. The athletic prospect aptly named "The Future" has just two UFC losses. She tore her ACL against Roxanne Modafferi, and she outstruck and landed three more takedowns than Alexa Grasso but failed to get the nod. Other than that, her five other wins and a +1.64 striking success rate are hard to argue with.
She'll draw Montana De La Rosa on Saturday, and De La Rosa's one path to UFC victory has been by overwhelming much smaller flyweights -- like Ariane Lipski her last time out. De La Rosa's poor defense on the feet (45% striking defense) and against the cage (57% takedown defense) have left her with just two wins in her last five bouts.
On the other leg, my favorite straight pick of the weekend is Marc-Andre Barriault (-172). "Powerbar" suffered a flash knockout loss his last time out, but he's otherwise firmly established as an adept middleweight striker. He combines great volume (5.81 significant strikes landed per minute) with sound fundamentals (56% striking defense).
Drawing the Canadian on late notice will be Jordan Wright. Wright's 38% striking defense has been unsightly, and his only UFC wins are knockouts against two fighters with an average striking defense of 42%. Assuming Barriault isn't sparked again, he's the much more efficient and technical striker in this one.
Even the heavy favorites come loaded with more unknowns than these two (and their opponents), so the +130 odds here will absolutely work.
Lando Vannata to Win (-102; 1.0 Unit)
As a slight underdog, Lando Vannata (-102) can cruise here if his coaches implement the right gameplan.
There's no doubting his opponent, Charles Jourdain, in the striking department. Jourdain's 5.70 significant strikes landed per minute keep pace with any featherweight, and his +1.13 striking success rate is an excellent testament to damage control.
However, Jourdain's key weakness is known at this point -- wrestling defense. Jourdain has lost all three UFC fights in which his opponent landed multiple takedowns, including a submission loss to Julian Erosa in 2021.
Averaging 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, Vannata can wrestle. His 40% takedown efficiency is more than passable for someone who'd call himself a striker first.
Vannata's not a horrible striker (-0.10 striking success rate), but he's got a much clearer path to getting his sixth career win via submission. This isn't a sport with efficient coaching, so it's no guarantee, but I'll take these odds as a wager this one finds the mat within the 15 minutes.
Dart Throw of the Week: Cameron Else by Submission (+800; 0.25 Units)
One of the strangest fights on the card will be at bantamweight between England's Cameron Else (+198) and China's Aori Qileng.
Qileng has dropped both of his UFC bouts at flyweight, so he's moving 10 pounds up in weight to meet Else. Else, a natural bantamweight, actually fought rising UFC star Paddy Pimblett overseas in 2013, and Pimblett now competes at 155 pounds. Else is a big dude for this weight class.
Now, Else was dismantled by fringe-ranked bantamweight Kyler Phillips. Qileng was demolished in both of his bouts. This isn't a prospect showcase, and the peripherals are ugly on both sides.
Perhaps if for no other reason than reasonable doubt, Else's size gives him a path to defeat the smaller foe. Qileng was controlled for 5:39 by flyweight Cody Durden, and if Else's ground skills are anywhere near UFC-caliber, that's his best path to defeat his challenger.
Qileng has never been knocked out, so this is a dart that perhaps Qileng's problematic wrestling defense (54% takedown defense) rears its ugly head once more, and Else -- who has four career wins via submission, including Pimblett -- can lock up a choke.
