Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 60
This weekend, UFC returns to their home building for a celebration -- of sorts -- of Dana White's Contender Series. A record number of alumni from the show (13) are set to compete on Saturday, but it's headlined by a bantamweight title eliminator.
UFC Vegas 60: Sandhagen vs. Song will take place Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Which MMA bets stand out on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Joe Pyfer and Trevin Giles to Both Win
(-123; 2.0 Units)
Irene Aldana's miracle upkick was one of the luckiest hits for the two-legger of 2022, pushing it to 17-9 year-to-date. We've had enough bad beats that it'll even out in the long run.
Even though this card holds minimal name value, it'll be one of my highest-volume cards of the year. Some of these matchups seem clear as day, but none are quite the squash match Joe Pyfer (-430) has.
Pyfer was a star on the Contender Series in July, showcasing grappling skills before finding a big-time knockout. He had a solid +1.00 striking success rate across two appearances on the show. His reward? Alen Amedovski.
Amedovski has been bludgeoned in three UFC fights, failing to land more than six significant strikes in all of them. Two were losses by finish, and his debut was a lopsided decision. Amedovski's last two opponents are a combined 2-6 in UFC, so it hasn't even been against elite competition.
I'm also pretty confident in UFC veteran Trevin Giles (-210) ending his losing skid against Louis Cosce.
Giles' two recent losses have been to Michael Morales and Dricus du Plessis, who are now a combined 5-0 in UFC. Cosce dropped his debut to the now-cut Sasha Palatnikov in December 2020, and he's been out of action since.
This is still a tough draw with Giles, who has efficient marks in striking accuracy (54%), takedown accuracy (64%), striking defense (59%), and takedown defense (75%). Outside of a tendency to be a bit inactive, Giles does everything well.
These two well-rounded artists in forgiving matchups will carry the torch this week and try to push our streak to three cards.
Gillian Robertson to Win (-156; 1.5 Units)
I'm totally fine with tacking Gillian Robertson (-156) onto that parlay to produce +198 odds, but that squashes the spirit of the two-legger. Some weeks I can barely find one line I love, and this week, there are three.
Robertson's matchup with Mariya Agapova is one that -- unless Agapova has made serious improvements -- she should dominate.
Agapova's 42% takedown defense has -- without exaggeration -- been the reason for all three of her losses in UFC. She's lost every fight she's faced a takedown attempt, and Robertson averages 5.90 attempts per 15 minutes.
Really, in this instance, Robertson's lack of striking prowess (-0.39 striking success rate) is a gift. It'll force her to attack Agapova in her soft spot rather than play a losing game at striking distance. In Robertson's last three losses, she's still attempted 12 takedowns. She just wasn't successful on many of them.
It's hard to see Robertson, the division's record-holder for wins by finish, taking a step back to Agapova, whose two UFC wins are a combined 3-7 against others -- especially when "The Savage" has a matchup she can exploit with her grappling.
Dart Throw of the Week:
Marc-Andre Barriault by Decision (+500; 0.25 Units)
Oddsmakers have Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez a moderate favorite on Saturday, but I see this stylistic clash as more of a 50-50 proposition.
Hernandez is an excellent grappler, posting 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes on razor-sharp 70% accuracy. The competition -- including his last fight against debutant Josh Fremd -- hasn't always been tremendous, but he's shown he can go to the mat with even a jiu-jitsu champion such as Rodolfo Vieira.
Even if you give Hernandez the mat, Marc-Andre Barriault (+152) has the edge on the feet here. Barriault's +0.75 striking success rate trumps Hernandez's (+0.33), and Hernandez has a petrifyingly-low striking defense (46%). Barriault's is a respectable 55%.
Barriault has never been professionally submitted, and he answered questions about his offense in that domain by locking up a choke on Jordan Wright last time out. If -- behind a 68% takedown defense -- he can defend Hernandez's wrestling attempts well, he'll be in the driver's seat to win this fight.
However, if Barriault ends up dictating the action, his knockdown rate (0.39%) is incredibly low for a middleweight. He doesn't have a lot of power. If he is able to keep his feet, I like him to win a decision while Hernandez still lasts the full duration.