Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 12

Avoid Tom Brady as a Heavy Favorite

There is nothing fun about betting against Tom Brady. We are all envisioning him lighting up the Dolphins with ease. However, Brady has been in this situation before and hasn't really lived up to expectations.

The Patriots are favored by a whopping 16.5 points versus Miami. This is the biggest spread of the season and all Patriots' offensive players are certainly in play. So why am I skeptical of the GOAT?

According to Fantasy Labs, Brady has been a favorite of 14 or more points in five games since 2014. In those games, he has scored an average of 18.41 fantasy points. While that's a pretty good average, it is just about double his FanDuel salary. For Brady to really become a value, he would have to hit at least 2.5 times his salary, which is 22.75. In these five games, he scored just below or lower in all five games.

Because of his high price tag of $9,100 on FanDuel -- the highest among quarterbacks -- and his past performance in these situations, I will probably be passing on Brady.