Fantasy Football: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 10

Jarvis Landry Will Be a Top 3 Receiver

Every time I make a bold prediction involving the Cleveland Browns, I miss it. But this week it's going to be different. This week, Jarvis Landry will finish as a top 5 wideout in fantasy football.

There are a few cogs in action here. First, the Browns axed head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley after their loss to the Steelers. In their first game following that move, the Browns offense looked decent against the Kansas City Chiefs, They focused more on the run game -- which per Warren Sharp has been more effective for them than the passing game this year -- and emphasized Duke Johnson as a pass-catcher on more than just third downs. It seemed like a step in the right direction for an offense that's struggled this year.

Second, their opponents this week haven't been able to stop anyone this year. The Atlanta Falcons defense has been reeling from injuries. They're allowing 7.1 net yards per attempt to opposing passers and have given up scores on 44.6% of their drives, the fourth-highest rate in the league. And a lot of the damage that has been dealt to them has been through the slot. Last week Maurice Harris, who until that game had been relatively unknown and has run 54% of his routes from the slot, pasted the Falcons defensive backs for 124 receiving yards.

Harris wasn't the first slot receiver to have a great game against the Falcons -- Sterling Shepard, Adam Humphries, and Tyler Boyd have all put up terrific numbers from that area of the field in the past few weeks. And conveniently, that's where Landry has spent most of his time this year as well. He's struggled to put up consistent numbers this year, but he's still accrued the second-most targets in the league and has averaged the eighth-highest target share among wide receivers. He's getting very heavy usage -- he's just struggled to convert it into tangible yards.

He shouldn't have any trouble doing that this week. Landry has an average depth of target of 10.6 yards in 2018, while the Falcons are allowing receivers to catch targets at that depth at a well above average 70% rate. He and Baker Mayfield have connected on just 55% of their intended air yards, but the Falcons defense is going to help spike that number this week.

All of that, plus what will likely be a positive game script for both offenses with an over/under set at 50.5, should lead to Jarvis Landry's best game of the season and a top three finish on the Week 10 wide receiver leaderboard.