NHL Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 1/9/23
NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.
Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters. Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.
Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate and some players to consider for your lineups.
Goalie to Target
Craig Anderson ($8,000): The Buffalo Sabres are expected to have Anderson in net tonight and are -235 home favorites against the Philadelphia Flyers. When it comes to the Flyers' offense, there isn't much of it this season since they are scoring only 2.26 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. On top of that, they have a 53.69 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is good for the ninth-worst in the league.
The Sabres are showing some good signs on defense this season, allowing just a 52.63 Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-best in the league. Anderson has quietly been super strong for the Sabres with a .923 save percentage while allowing 2.05 Goals per game.
High-Salaried Skaters
Tage Thompson ($10,400): With the Sabres being -235 home favorites, they are carrying a slate-high 3.82 implied team total. If the Sabres are going to hit or exceed that mark, Thompson is likely going to be involved. The top-line center for the Sabres comes in with 15 NHL points and 28 shots on goal over his last 10 games.
We're talking about a high shot volume and multi-point potential every single night, which should be on full display in this matchup. The Flyers have a 60.57 Corsi Against, which is the 5th-worst in the league, along with allowing 2.54 Goals, which is the 14th-worst in the league. Ideally, you should look to stack Thompson with Alex Tuch ($8,200) and Jeff Skinner ($8,100) for a fully-correlated first forward line and first power-play unit.
Zach Hyman ($8,600): The Edmonton Oilers are taking on the Los Angeles Kings in a game with a 6.5-goal over/under that offers plenty of fantasy scoring. While Connor McDavid ($10,600) and Leon Draisaitl ($10,200) are always great options, they are both very expensive. Hyman is just a bit more affordable and has been putting up plenty of fantasy points of late.
Over his last 10 games, Hyman has 10 NHL points and 42 shots on goal. Just for comparison, Draisaitl has 10 points and 29 shots on goal over his last 10 games, while being $1,600 higher in salary. Historically, Draisaitl has shown a higher ceiling compared to Hyman, but right now, Hyman is matching his production. Hyman is on the second forward line and the first power-play unit, which will continue to put him in a good spot to put up big fantasy numbers each night.
Value Skaters
Jake Sanderson ($5,000): The Ottawa Senators are still primed for an offensive outburst. Right now, the Senators are scoring 2.09 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fourth-worst in the league. If we look at their Expected Goals Scored (xGF), they should be scoring 2.83 per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which would put them as the sixth-best team in the league.
This is a spot I want to buy low on before that scoring starts to happen. Sanderson is the defender on the second power-play unit, coming in with 2 NHL points, 8 shots on goal, and 24 blocked shots over his last 10 games. He's a great point-per-dollar option on an offense that's ready to start producing.
Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5,200): Bjorkstrand has just 6 goals on the season, which is noticeably lower than his 11.2 Expected Goals, per MoneyPuck. This means he is generating good scoring chances and getting a bit unlucky. The inconsistencies are going to happen throughout the season, but it's good to see that Bjorkstrand is still firing the puck.
He's on the third forward line and the second power-play unit, sporting 27 shots on goal over his last 10 games and 4 NHL points. The Seattle Kraken have a 3.69 implied goal total tonight and are taking on the Montreal Canadiens, who are allowing 3.02 Goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, which is the fifth-most in the league.
