League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC, 7/24/20
FanDuel is offering League of Legends daily fantasy, and look, if you don't know what that is, it's okay.
I have you covered with a detailed but straightforward primer to get you all set up whether you're a DFS player looking to dig into the new sport or a League of Legends fan ready to take your action over to FanDuel.
Let's break down the LEC slate for Friday, July 24th, which locks at 12:00 Eastern, and see who stands out.
The Slate
The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.
The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir.
| Team | Opponent | Adj. Net Towers | Proj. Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | FC Schalke 04 Esports | -0.83 | 81.3% |
| MAD Lions | Fnatic | 3.77 | 72.1% |
| Rogue | Misfits Gaming | 3.79 | 67.7% |
| Origen | Team Vitality | 1.31 | 67.0% |
| SK Gaming | Excel Esports | 0.17 | 58.0% |
| Excel Esports | SK Gaming | -0.78 | 42.0% |
| Team Vitality | Origen | -0.82 | 33.0% |
| Misfits Gaming | Rogue | 0.04 | 32.3% |
| Fnatic | MAD Lions | -1.27 | 27.9% |
| FC Schalke 04 Esports | G2 Esports | -5.39 | 18.7% |
G2 Esports are the biggest favorites of the slate despite their 5-6 record and three-match loss streak. The matchup with FC Schalke is always too good to hate, and we know G2's ceiling is as high as any team's.
The second-biggest favorite in my sims are MAD Lions (9-2) over Fnatic (6-5). Fnatic are on the right side of .500 but have not fared well in adjusted tower differential. They've lost to MAD Lions, Origen, Rogue, G2, and FC Schalke. That means they lost to good opponents...and Schalke. They aren't themselves. MAD are actually priced really well, if you have the guts to trust a win over Fnatic.
Rogue (9-2) are now the best team -- barely -- in adjusted tower differential. Misfits Gaming (5-6) are about as average a team as we've seen this split. Since a 2-1 opening weekend, Team Vitality (4-7) have struggled, giving us a buy-in spot on Origen (6-5).
ADC
Upset (Origen; $9,500) - You pretty much have to get a winner with your AD Carry, and Origen is in a great spot to get that against Team Vitality. Upset leads the split in kills (48) and KDA (kill/death/assist ratio; 12.8) while reigning down the second-most damage per minute of any AD Carry. Comp (Team Vitality; $8,200) has 44 kills of his own, making him the only other AD Carry with at least 40, but he's also died a split-high 28 times. Carzzy (MAD Lions; $9,300) is a really cheap, really productive player. My data has MAD Lions a big favorite over Fnatic, but the safer pick is Upset for $200 more.
Others to Consider: Carzzy (MAD Lions; $9,300), PERKZ (G2 Esports; $9,800), Hans sama (Rogue; $10,300)
Mid
Caps (G2 Esports; $8,900) - Caps has slate-changing upside, as evidenced by a 56.48-point performance four games ago against Misfits Gaming. Other than that, he's been mostly fine in his return to the mid lane. Caps faces Abbedagge in lane, who has succumbed a split-high 31 times and has only 12 kills of his own. Caps' 41 kills rank him third among mid-laners, with nobody else above 30. The heavy favorites should roll, and Caps has a floor and ceiling in this one.
Others to Consider: Humanoid (MAD Lions; $8,400), Larssen (Rogue; $9,300), Nukeduck (Origen; $8,500)
Top
Orome (MAD Lions; $7,700) - Orome leads all top-laners in FanDuel points per game average this split, and again, MAD Lions should be considered the favorites in this match. He had a deathless 1/0/6 (kills/deaths/assists) line against Fnatic a month ago, and with the way that Bwipo (Fnatic; $8,300) has been playing (he's last in the split in experience differential at 10 minutes), we can take the savings with Orome. Top looks pretty deep on this slate, though.
Others to Consider: Wunder (G2 Esports; $8,000), Alphari ($7,800), Finn (Rogue; $8,500)
Jungle
Shad0w (MAD Lions; $8,200) - Shad0w leads all junglers in fantasy points per game this split but is priced down due to the matchup against Fnatic. While MAD Lions can drop this game and while Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,700) is a tough jungle counterpart, Shad0w is a really easy justification. Junglers can lose and still produce, especially if they're more active in trying to gank side lanes. Only one other jungler has more than 70 assists aside from Shad0w, who has 87.
Others to Consider: Jankos (G2 Esports; $8,600), Inspired (Rogue; $9,000), Xerxe (Origen; $8,300)
Support
Kaiser (MAD Lions; $7,400) - Kaiser's averaging 24.4 FanDuel points per game in the split. Second at support is Vander (Rogue; $8,000) at 17.2. After that, it's LIMIT (SK Gaming: $7,300) at 15.6. So, we know that Kaiser can score. He's got a creep score per minute of 2.9, the only mark among supports above 1.8. He's got 17 kills, the only total above 13. He's the only support in triple-digit assists (106) with nobody else above 86. The way he plays support is too fantasy-friendly to ignore at a price like this.
Others to Consider: Mikyx (G2 Esports; $7,700), Vander (Rogue; $8,000), LIMIT (SK Gaming: $7,300)
Teams
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.
Teams to Consider: G2 Esports ($7,700), MAD Lions ($7,500), SK Gaming ($7,400), Excel Esports ($7,200)
