MLB Betting Guide for Monday 8/14/23: Fading Baltimore's Red-Hot Rookie
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Houston Astros at Miami Marlins
Under 4.5 Runs in F5 Innings (-130)
Two stellar southpaws will skirmish in South Beach today. How's that for alliteration to start your Monday?
That should lead toward a low-scoring affair and open this early-game under -- even at a minuscule mark. Personally, the more important side of it will be Braxton Garrett taking on the Houston Astros.
Houston has a 141 wRC+ against lefties in the past 30 days, so that's a threat to any under, but Garrett has a strong profile to keep them in check. His 3.32 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 25.6% strikeout rate are both excellent, and he's especially tough on lefties, allowing a .293 wOBA to them. If Garrett can keep Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker in check, the 'Stros' scoring potential drops dramatically.
It's pretty straightforward with Framber Valdez on the other side for Houston. Two starts removed from a no-no, Valdez's breakout campaign has come with a 3.51 SIERA and 25.2% strikeout rate himself. His day at the office should be easier; the Miami Marlins have just a pedestrian 100 wRC+ against left-handers this past month of play.
We're only taking the first-five under because Houston's bullpen (4.96 xFIP in the past 30 days) is dreadful. The full-game total (7.5) is way too low to invite their tomfoolery.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Rockies ML (+190)
Sometimes betting baseball requires turning into variance. This is a sharp turn that would probably even make Max Verstappen queasy.
The Colorado Rockies -- by just about any measure -- are the worst team in baseball. Their starting pitching is awful, the bullpen is bottom five in xFIP during the past month, and they sold off several bats at the deadline. However, they'll have a shot today -- even with Chris Flexen (5.43 SIERA) on the bump.
That's because the Arizona Diamondbacks have tumbled since the deadline, too. Arizona's offense has just a 91 wRC+ against righties in the past month of play, which is the 10th-worst mark in baseball. Their bullpen also has a bottom-10 xFIP (4.54) and could be called upon for the duration of this one.
As of this writing, Arizona has no probable pitcher. They might push Merrill Kelly another day after he exited his last start with an injury. Even if Kelly starts, his 4.14 SIERA and 40.1% hard-hit rate allowed aren't ideal for Coors Field.
This is a value bet more than a guaranteed winner for tonight; a bottom-10 club at present shouldn't have 69.7% odds to win (on the road) against anyone -- even the worst team in the league. I'll take a half-unit flier on Colorado that most won't consider.
Baltimore Orioles at San Diego Padres
Padres -0.5 Runs in F5 Innings (-106)
Just because a trend in baseball pops up doesn't mean that it'll stay forever.
Grayson Rodriguez of the Baltimore Orioles has gone at least five innings with no more than two earned runs allowed in four straight, but I wouldn't say he's out of the woods from his early-season struggles. Rodriguez's xFIP in August is still just 4.10 despite the success in the box score, and he's still sporting a massive 46.9% hard-hit rate allowed overall.
In this one, Yu Darvish is a safer commodity. His 37.5% hard-hit rate allowed is substantially better, and more than anything, he'll have a far easier matchup. The O's have sputtered to an 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching during the past 30 days, and Darvish's San Diego Padres have a much better mark (102).
Baltimore has the better bullpen, but I like for a bit of regression to hit Rodriguez early in this one against the Friars' star-studded lineup. San Diego simply just has to have the lead at the end of five for this to cash around even money.