League of Legends Daily Fantasy Helper: LEC, 7/25/20
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Let's break down the LEC slate for Saturday, July 25th, which locks at 11:00 Eastern, and see who stands out.
The Slate
The LEC format features a single game played in each matchup, so there are no win bonuses for ending a series early.
The table below shows a team's adjusted net tower differential and their projected win odds, based on simulations I run. The raw data comes from Oracle's Elixir.
| Team | Opponent | Adj. Net Towers | Proj. Win% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Misfits Gaming | FC Schalke 04 Esports | 0.04 | 78.2% |
| MAD Lions | SK Gaming | 3.77 | 73.7% |
| Rogue | G2 Esports | 3.79 | 63.7% |
| Origen | Fnatic | 1.31 | 61.4% |
| Team Vitality | Excel Esports | -0.82 | 52.1% |
| Excel Esports | Team Vitality | -0.78 | 47.9% |
| Fnatic | Origen | -1.27 | 38.6% |
| G2 Esports | Rogue | -0.83 | 36.3% |
| SK Gaming | MAD Lions | 0.17 | 26.3% |
| FC Schalke 04 Esports | Misfits Gaming | -5.39 | 21.8% |
Misfits Gaming was the closest thing to a league-average team entering the weekend that we have in the LEC, and they face the closest thing we have to a free win in FC Schalke. They're sizable favorites. MAD Lions, perhaps the best team in the split, take on SK Gaming, a pretty neutral opponent.
But Rogue/G2 and Origen/Fnatic are about as good of matchups -- from a viewing standpoint -- as we'll get. Problematically, G2 and Fnatic, the spring split finalists, have played below average this split and are objectively worse teams than their opponents. That uncertainty nearly takes four teams out of contention unless you're stacking for differentiation purposes. Then, Team Vitality and Excel Esports (both 4-7 entering the weekend and bottom-tier teams) are a coin flip.
The only "certainty" is Misfits and MAD Lions.
ADC
Carzzy (MAD Lions; $10,300) - I don't really even care about Carzzy's price. We already broke down the slate overall, and we should feel good with two teams. We need to hit on our AD Carry picks, and Carzzy has been so good that he's worth nearly any salary. Carzzy entered the weekend second in FanDuel points per game among ADCs at 27.3, and SK Gaming allow 23.9, actually fifth-most. So they've been about average there. Despite that -- and that he cedes creep score to his support, Kaiser -- Carzzy has gone over 30 FanDuel points in 7 of 11 games entering the weekend.
Others to Consider: Kobbe (Misfits Gaming; $9,600), Upset (Origen; $8,900), Patrik (Excel Esports; $9,200)
Mid
FEBIVEN (Misfits Gaming; $8,500) - FEBIVEN has been quite inconsistent this split but still has a ceiling and has notched at least three kills in four of his past six matches. Against Schalke in June, he was just okay, posting a 2/0/1 (kill/death/assist) line for 15.34 FanDuel points. He's third in creep score differential at 10 minutes among mid-laners, and his in-lane opponent has only 12 kills this split (fewest of all mid-laners and only one of two marks below 25). Gilius has a high rate of team kills from the jungle but still averages only 1.8 per match, a middling rate.
Others to Consider: Larssen (Rogue; $7,900), Humanoid (MAD Lions; $9,300), Nemesis (Fnatic; $9,000)
Top
Dan Dan (Misfits Gaming; $7,900) - Dan Dan's KDA (2.9) ranks him fourth among all top-laners, but he's a good cut below Orome (6.8) and Alphari (5.4). Orome is definitely a top-tier pick for this slate against SK Gaming. That being said, Dan Dan should be less popular even against Schalke. He's fourth in damage per minute in this split among tops. Despite Odoamne's solid stats and differentials, no team gives up more points to top laners than Schalke. We could see Dan Dan turn that damage into some kills.
Others to Consider: Orome (MAD Lions; $8,500), Alphari (Origen; $7,500), Kryze (Excel Esports; $7,700)
Jungle
Shad0w (MAD Lions; $9,000) - Shad0w is just too easy to recommend, and I think we're getting cute to downplay it. He leads all junglers in FanDuel points per game in this split, and he could snowball against SK Gaming, who are below-average in jungle control rate. Shad0w didn't exactly pop off against SK in their first meeting but had a clean 2/0/12 line for 32.8 FanDuel points. He leads junglers in first blood rate and can help MAD Lions get ahead on a likely path to a win.
Others to Consider: Razork (Misfits Gaming; $8,200), Selfmade (Fnatic; $8,800), Caedrel (Excel Esports; $8,000)
Support
Kaiser (MAD Lions; $8,000) - This is another spot where it's just irresponsible not to spotlight Kaiser because of what he's done and because of the situation he's in as a likely winner. He has four games entering the weekend with at least three kills. All other supports combined have two total. He actually had a 3/1/7 line against SK Gaming earlier this split.
Others to Consider: Doss (Misfits Gaming; $7,500), Vander (Rogue; $7,100), labrov (Team Vitality; $7,000)
Teams
With teams, it's best to treat them as a position you don't build around or punt with. Put another way: don't force it, but don't ignore it. Kind of like defense in NFL DFS. You should target the biggest favorites you can within your salary cap.
Teams to Consider: Misfits Gaming ($7,600), MAD Lions ($7,900), Team Vitality ($7,200), Excel Esports ($7,500)
