PGA Betting Guide for the RBC Canadian Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below we will cover the best bets for the RBC Canadian Open based on current form, course fit, and, of course, the value of their odds over at Golf odds. For more info on Hamilton Golf & Country Club and the key stats this week, check out the Course Primer.
Stats are from Fantasy National Golf Club and are for golfers in the field over the last 50 rounds, unless otherwise noted.
At the Top
Dustin Johnson (+500) - With Brooks Koepka (+700) and Rory McIlroy (+950) also under 10/1 odds to win, the field is incredibly top heavy this week and Johnson is the rightful favorite. He has owned this event in the past few years including a win last season, and while that dominance came at Glen Abbey Golf Club it doesn't mean DJ can't win here too. If you close your mind to the fact that this event is being played at a new venue and just look at the actual specs of this course, you'll find it is practically tailor made for Dustin Johnson dominance. As arguably the best player in the world at bombing driver and nailing a short iron or wedge into the green, DJ should find ample scoring opportunities in soft conditions this week at Hamilton. The form stats are good as always (first in bogeys avoided, second in tee to green, fourth in approach and birdies or better gained); but what's really impressive is the fit - according to Josh Culp's Fantasy Golfanac over at Future of Fantasy, Johnson leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained since 2014 on short courses (check), par 70 courses (check), weak fields (check), and bent/poa combo greens (checkmate).
Sergio Garcia (+2400) - At the back of the top range is Garcia, who has been boom or bust of late (and really for the better part of the past 18 months). Most recently he's alternated missed cuts with top five finishes over his last four events, missing at the two majors and posting T4 at the Wells Fargo Championship and T5 at the Match Play. Using this completely arbitrary starting and ending point and projecting it forward, Garcia MUST be a lock for a top five at Hamilton and a MC next week at Pebble Beach. He fits the course well as his strength lies mostly in his iron play, and he can club down off the tee to keep it in play and set up his approaches. In this field he should be able to stay in contention if he can avoid the occasional blowup. Toss a few units on Garcia to win and hedge off with top 5 (+470) and top 10 (+230) bets.
Value Spots
Aaron Wise and Keegan Bradley (+5500 each) - These two have been big risers over the course of the week, as Wise was 80/1 and Bradley 70/1 as of Monday evening. Both are volatile players that have not truly had a high-end finish this year. Both had a win last season in soft, scoring-friendly conditions; Wise made everything en route to a win at the Byron Nelson after a rain delay in the morning, and likewise Keegan fired a Sunday 64 at the rain-soaked BMW Championship and won in a playoff. In each of those events, the winning score cracked 20-under par, a threshold well within reach this week. Rain is expected early-mid week and the course has an old irrigation system that the superintendent is on the record that it needs to be updated to dry out faster.
Erik Van Rooyen (+8000) - Van Rooyen has been knocking on the door both stateside and abroad, with a T8 finish at the PGA Championship to go along with four other top 10s so far this season on the European Tour. He is not a household name and so does not get the recognition of other more popular Euros, but Van Rooyen has shown a propensity to gain loads of strokes tee to green at difficult venues like Bethpage Black, and Hamilton's defenses are not nearly at that level. Van Rooyen is presently +900 for a top 10, making him a great value compared to others with slightly worse win odds but shorter top 10 payouts.
Lucas Bjerregaard (+9000) - Like Van Rooyen but a longer body of work, Bjerregaard has actual wins in each of the past two seasons on the European Tour. He led the Euro circuit in top 10s last year and has an all around game that includes enough distance off the tee to find himself with manageable approaches this week. In his limited run on the PGA Tour this year he has actually fared much better on the difficult courses than the easy ones, with top 25s at both majors, a 4th at the Match Play, T30 at THE PLAYERS, and T12 at the Honda Classic. The talent is there to hang with the best in the world, and he's too good not to pop off for a high finish in a weak field at some point.
Long Shots
Mackenzie Hughes (+16000) - Hughes grew up just 15 minutes from Hamilton and like many of the Canadians in the field will get a boost from the crowd. Mac saw his buddy Corey Conners bink his first career win earlier this year and enters with strong form off a T8 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Skip the top 10 bet at +750 and fire a flyer on him to win outright and hedge with a top Canadian bet at +800.
Tyler Duncan (+28000) - Another looooong shot to win that has shown spurts of form of late with at T5 at the Byron Nelson. He was T17 at the Canadian Open last year at Glen Abbey, thanks in large part to a Saturday 65. He has the chops to go low but can't always sustain the form for the full week. So in addition to a few pennies on him to win outright, consider him at +12000 to be the first round leader.
