European Tour Betting Preview: Turkish Airlines Open
This week the European Tour event kicks off the Race to Dubai playoffs in Turkey. The event does not have a cut with the 78-man field and is returning to the Montgomerie Maxx Royal course after being played at Regnum Carya Golf Club the last three years. The top-64 in the Race to Dubai standings after this week will automatically qualify for the Nedbank Golf Challenge, so the players in the 65-70 range will be looking to play well to move up and stay in contention.
Course: Montgomerie Maxx Royal
Yardage: 7,133 Yards
Recent Winners: At Maxx: Victor Dubuisson -22 (2015), Brooks Koepka -17 (2014), Victor Dubuisson -24 (2013). At Regnum Carya (not the course this year): Justin Rose -17 (2018), Justin Rose -18 (2017), Thorbjorn Olesen -20 (2016).
One unique thing about this course is that it has five par 3s and five par 5s. This lends itself to longer hitting par 5 scoring players, which is evidenced by the fact that Brooks Koepka won here in 2014.
Victor Dubuisson sadly is not in the field this week, so he will not be able to make it three-for-four at this course. Two-time defending champ of the event, Justin Rose, is in the field and will be looking for a three-peat, and his first victory at the Maxx Royal course.
Matthias Schwab - Schwab is on the verge of cracking the top-100 in the world rankings after a stellar run of play in the late summer/early fall. Last time we saw him (last week), he was only defeated by Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Louis Oosthuizen at the WGC-HSBC. In his last eight starts, he has four top-fives. That is the definition of knocking on the door. He ranks 36th on the European Tour in Par 5 scoring on the season, and 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green on the year, showing that his game can travel anywhere. It’s just a matter of time before Schwab gets his maiden European Tour victory, and I see no reason he can’t use his current form to fuel himself to victory this week.
Bet: To Win (+2700)
Thomas Pieters - Pieters played this course once before in 2015, where he finished 26th. That’s not necessarily a stellar result in a no-cut event, but any course with this many par 5s should suit Pieters well. His worst finish in his last six starts is a 37th, and he’s coming in rested. He won at a bombers' paradise in the Czech Masters a couple months ago, and Pieters is a guy who can pop out of nowhere with how hot and cold he can run.
Bet: To Win (+3300)
David Lipsky - Lipsky played this event twice in 2014-2015 and found decent success with two top-20s. He ranks 32nd on the tour in par-5 scoring, and given his seeming fondness for this course, his top-20 odds are very tantalizing.
Bet: Top-20 (+430)
Jorge Campillo - Campillo has not had a strong finish to the season, but with four guaranteed rounds, there’s no reason he can’t catch some form. He played here back in 2015, so he’s familiar with the course and had decent success finishing 20th. He ranks 73rd in Par 5 scoring (+0.10 better than the field average for the events he’s played), so a course like this could be just what he needs to regain some confidence. His odds are silly for a player of his caliber (top-100 world ranking), so a bet for him to find a bit of form is certainly worth a small investment.
Bet: Top-20 (+470)