PGA Betting Guide for the Wyndham Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Wyndham Championship based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
After a thrilling ending to the PGA Championship, we're moving on to the final PGA Tour event of the 2019-20 regular-season.
We want to pinpoint the value at the top of the market, as all of the best golfers are so close now that it becomes a true guessing game for who will ultimately triumph in any given week. Eschewing the very top for a comparable player with a better payout is the most profitable strategy for these types of events.
For more info on Sedgefield Country Club, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
Stats cited below come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds on the PGA Tour unless noted. Ranks are among the field.
At the Top
Webb Simpson (+1000) - Despite having the shortest odds of the field, Simpson is impossible to ignore. Simpson has six top-10 finishes at Sedgefield, including one win in 2011 and three top-3s in the last three years. Among the field, Simpson ranks top-10 in strokes gained: approach, birdie or better rate, and bogey avoidance over his last 50 rounds -- three categories that should be vital this week. Simpson is also 13th in strokes gained: putting, which certainly doesn't hurt. Already a two-time winner this season, look for Simpson to make a run at his third at the Wyndham Championship.
Patrick Reed (+1700) - Reed won this event in 2013 and has finished T24 or better in each of his last four outings here. In his last 50 rounds, Reed ranks first in birdie or better rate, third in strokes gained: putting, sixth in bogey avoidance, and ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green. He's also top-50 in both strokes gained: off-the-tee and strokes gained: approach.
Justin Rose (+2200) - Rose has been absolutely all over the place this season, with three top-10s and six missed cuts to date. However, his performance at the PGA Championship was quite encouraging. Among those in the field this week, Rose ranked first in strokes gained: putting and birdie or better rate, as well as 11th in bogey avoidance and 17th in strokes gained: approach in the season's first major. Even if his driving doesn't improve (90th in SG: Off-the-Tee), he'll be in the mix if he can stay hot with his putter. For many of the same reasons, Paul Casey (+2000) should garner consideration. Casey's 0.2 strokes gained putting per round at the PGA Championship far exceeded what he's done in his last 50 rounds overall (-0.5 per round).
Value Spots
Billy Horschel (+3500) - Horschel finished T6 here last year, this after finishing T11 in 2018 and T5 in 2016. He's played this course par or better in 19 straight rounds. Horschel's current form also shows that he could be up to the task. Over his last 50 rounds, he's 9th in birdie or better rate, 16th in strokes gained: putting, 25th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and 31st in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Horschel has six top-10 finishes this season and tends to perform better at courses where scoring doesn't come at a premium. Brandon Gdula's golf simulations give Horschel the seventh-best chance of coming away with a victory. Harris English (+2400) doesn't have the course history, but his recent form is among the best in the field.
Brendon Todd (+4000) - Todd is one of the best putters in the field (fifth in SG: Putting), and his ability to avoid bogeys should allow him to stay atop the leaderboard despite his limitations off the tee. Like Simpson, Todd has already won twice this season and has had top-20 finishes in three of his last five efforts.
Brandt Snedeker (+4500) - It's tough to look past a two-time winner at this event, despite Snedeker's recent form. The 2007 and 2019 Wyndham Championship winner hasn't finished higher than T41 in any of his last six events, hence the 45/1 odds. He has, however, placed top-10 in half of his 12 tries here. Snedeker has been absolutely horrid off the tee (130th in SG: Off-the-Tee), but he is 19th in strokes gained: putting. Like Todd, Snedeker's ability to avoid bogies (24th in bogey avoidance) could prove huge in his quest for his third win at this event.
Long Shots
Doc Redman (+7500) - The bad news? Redman's around-the-green game is awful -- he ranks 146th in strokes gained: around-the-green. The good news? That shouldn't really matter much at Sedgefield. What will matter is ball-striking, and Redman ranks 18th in strokes gained: off-the-tee and 7th in strokes gained: approach. He's 59th in strokes gained: putting, which isn't terrible.
Patrick Rodgers (+8500) - Rodgers has a pretty similar profile to Horschel, who's had plenty of success here. Rodgers struggles with his approach shots and around the green, but he's an excellent putter (second in SG: Putting) and is more than solid off the tee (20th in SG: Off-the-Tee). Rodgers' combination of birdie or better rate (22nd) plus bogey avoidance (8th) makes him an intriguing bet.
Bud Cauley (+8500) - Cauley's not great off the tee, but he makes up for it by ranking 25th in strokes gained: approach and 10th in bogey avoidance. While he's not a great putter, Gdula notes that he's actually okay on Bermuda greens.
