GOLF

PGA Betting Guide for THE NORTHERN TRUST

Mike Rodden  —  @Mike_Rodden Aug 19th, 2020
With a loaded field and little value at the top of the market, we dive deep to find gems that can hold up in a big time field.

Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.

Below, we will cover the best bets for THE NORTHERN TRUST based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.

As the FedEx Cup Playoffs get underway, the PGA Tour heads to the Northeast for the first leg at TPC Boston. By and large, the top golfers in the world typically shine at these events, given the strength of field, and the big money prize at the end of the road. A win at THE NORTHERN TRUST would put most of the field in or near pole position for extra starting strokes at the Tour Championship.

So, our card will lean toward that type of player, either a consensus top player on Tour or a wild card that can catch fire.

For more info on TPC Boston, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.

At the Top

Jon Rahm (+1600) - In a stacked field with the top guys clustered together and plenty of viable options down the board, we'll go all-in on Rahm here and target the longer term consistency of Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy (each +1400) in daily fantasy. Rahm is certainly no slouch, and we'll take the slightly longer odds for the current world No. 1 player. He dominated at the Memorial and was T13 at the PGA Championship, the two strongest fields of the year so far. Having ceded the top ranking once already, don't be surprised to see Rahm go for the stranglehold on it the second time around.

Value Spots

Tony Finau (+3000) - Finau's name has been popular in the Twitterverse this week after Jim Herman lapped him in career wins, but Finau sets up well for a signature win this week to silence the critics. Always at his best in the strongest of fields, Finau looks the part this week with three top 10s in his last four events and a terrific combination of both off the tee and approach acumen. This number is tough to swallow, but he's the type of all-around stud that consistently succeed at these Playoff events, and let's be honest, something good has to happen in 2020.

Tommy Fleetwood (+4800) - Still without a win on the PGA Tour, Fleetwood has had enough warming up since his long layoff to find his form, and we know he can post the low round of the day at any time. The winner will need to go low at least one day to find the podium here, and at these odds, we are getting one of the top players in the world for a steal. The books are daring us with a number close to 50/1, and we'll happily bite along with a hedge for a Top 10 Finish (+500).

Long Shots

Justin Rose (+6000) - Rose has had an all-or-nothing kind of season, with a ninth-place finish at the PGA Championship bracketed by three consecutive missed cuts before it and another at the Wyndham Championship the week after. We are a far cry from when he took down the 2018 FedEx Cup with a runner-up finish at TPC Boston along the way. While the consistency has been lacking, the top finishes have still been there. The former world No. 1 has fallen well behind the pack, but he was in the top 10 all week at TPC Harding Park, and another strong showing at this number is worth a look.

Phil Mickelson (+13000) - A winner here at TPC Boston way back in 2007, Mickelson maintained solid form throughout the years in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, notably finishing T6 and T12 in the final two years of the Dell Technologies Championship. He was runner up at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational seemingly out of nowhere, and any semblance of long term consistency is probably in the rearview mirror. As he ages, Mickelson will have fewer and fewer opportunities to add to his career win total. Tracks where he's won before and offered a tantalizing odds like this are the way to go.

Kevin Na (+19000) - Na has the right set up and mindset for a long-shot bet -- when he gets hot, he thinks he is the best man on the course. We normally look for elite ballstrikers who can potentially get hot with the putter, but Na is the inverse yet no less viable when the pieces fall into place. He has three wins in the past two years and had consecutive top 10s at the Memorial and the Travelers Championship, two strong fields where ballstriking reigns.