PGA Betting Guide for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
With three of the world's top 10 in the field this week, Vegas has heavily weighted the board toward one of the big names and opened up some value further down the board. We may well be witnessing the dawn of a new era of PGA Tour golf with the man at the top of the market, but in a full field, we'd be hard-pressed to take single-digit odds on anybody.
TPC Summerlin has seen quality champions each of the past three years, but before that, it was a total crapshoot. For goodness' sakes, Smylie Kaufman won here in 2015! As the top players continue to separate themselves, we can expect to see a recognizable name at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. So we'll pick our favorite we want to go heavy on and fill out our card with a few longer shots and some finishing position props.
For more info on TPC Summerlin, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Collin Morikawa (+1600) - Morikawa is joined in the top tier by two other top 10 players in Bryson DeChambeau (+700) and Webb Simpson (+1000), as well as three golfers who opened at the same or shorter odds that last won on the PGA Tour when Morikawa was still in college. That the books initially gave more respect to Patrick Cantlay (+1600), Tony Finau (+1800), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2000) is a testament to their course records and some lingering doubts about whether Morikawa can continue on his torrid pace the first 18 months of his pro career have seemingly promised. But the market quickly adjusted on the 23-year-old major champion, last seen missing the cut at the U.S. Open but otherwise looking like the best long iron player in the world. Grab the Top 20 Finish (+130) before it moves closer to even money.
Value Spots
Jason Day (+3500) - Day was on a torrid pace before the FedEx Cup Playoffs, racking up four straight top 10s including both events at Muirfield Village, a WGC, and a major. In that span he was doing it in all facets and not just with the short game, gaining at least six strokes tee-to-green in all four events. The pendulum has swung the other way on his always fickle irons since then, and he bled strokes on approaches at THE NORTHERN TRUST (-6.5), the BMW Championship (-7.7), and the U.S. Open (-5.2). Typically we target ascendant ballstrikers, but Day is unique in his ability to clean up his game with little to no warning. It's been almost 30 months since his last victory, and with the game coming around recently he has a run in him this week.
Abraham Ancer (+5500) - Ancer has good memories on these greens, as he rolled his way to a T4 finish two years ago. In the early part of the restart, he was leading every field tee-to-green, and since then, he's putt very well save a disastrous performance last time out at the U.S. Open. Some time away should help him reset, and he's long had the game suitable for the elusive first Tour win. Two runner ups in 2020 will have him hungry for that first victory, and he's a likely here as he is anywhere.
Long Shots
Si Woo Kim (+7000) - The typically volatile Kim has made the cut in 10 of his past 11 starts, with the lone failure thanks to a Friday 77 at Winged Foot. The rest of his game failed him while he put on a show on these greens en route to a T15 two years ago, gaining 9.8 strokes putting in the type of performance that typically ends with a Si Woo podium finish. He closed the season strong with tee-to-green gainers of 8.7 strokes, 9.9 strokes, and 7.9 strokes in his three final events of the 2019-20 season. A little life last week at the Sanderson Farms (3.9 strokes tee to green) could put him on the rise at a much better number than we saw him there or at the Safeway. There will be a few scary five footers and clanking one could cost him the tournament, so hedge a bit with a still nice return on a Top 5 Finish (+1600).
Carlos Ortiz (+15000) - One of the MVPs of last year's Fall Swing, Ortiz booked three top-five finishes last year, and while the Shriners wasn't one of them he gained in all three tee-to-green metrics and finished T37 largely due to a minus-1.5 strokes number on the greens. But the upside is there and he was terrific on the greens in his debut in 2014, gaining 9.8 strokes putting at TPC Summerlin. He comes off at a terrific outright number after missing the cut last week, and while it's not too sexy there is a nice payout available for a Top 30 Finish (+430).
