PGA Betting Guide for the John Deere Classic
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the John Deere Classic based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
With The Open on tap next week at Royal St. George's, many of the top PGA Tour pros are either taking the week off or getting acquainted with the conditions overseas at the Scottish Open. That leaves slim pickings for the John Deere Classic, with Daniel Berger (+950) leading the way at close to an un-bettable number for a golfer outside the super-elite.
When we are thin on options at the top of the market, we can get more speculative further down the board and find some bombs deep into the odds. The conditions are typically very friendly for scoring so we'll certainly have an eye on birdie makers, but really the key feature this week is iron play and specifically a ceiling with approaches.
We've seen some off-the-wall winners here in recent years, and given the field strength, we aren't going to have many of the top approach players to choose from. So we'll look to golfers who have had spike weeks even if they lack consistency.
For more info on the TPC Deere Run along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Kevin Streelman (+1900) - We've come to learn to expect the unexpected in golf, and two weeks ago was a perfect example. Streelman was in terrific form, with four straight top 20s in a stretch that included two major championships, arriving at a course in TPC River Highlands where he'd had arguably as much success as any in his career. And he missed the cut. We'll get back on board now at a course that features many similar features, including below-Tour average course distance and small greens. Streelman is hot and cold with his irons, having gained 4.5 strokes or more with approaches four times this season but losing strokes on the week six times. In good form with just one aberration, Streelman is a solid bet this week. TOP 20?
Value Spots
Si Woo Kim (+2800) - Did someone say we are looking for volatility and spike weeks? Si Woo has one of the widest ranges of outcomes with his iron play week to week and even hole to hole, capable of missing almost every green or knocking it to 3 feet from 200 yards out. Like his countryman Sungjae Im (+1700), Kim is skipping The Open in favor of preparation for the Olympics, where a medal means avoiding mandatory military service in their native South Korea. He will be locked in for this event and desperate to find some form as the Games draw nearer. Si Woo can pop off at just about any time, and he is one of the few reliable winners at the top of the market. In the field, just he, Berger, and last week's winner Cameron Davis (+2800) have victories this season.
Kevin Na (+4300) - Another golfer with a winning track record as part of a wide range of outcomes, Na won earlier this year at the Sony Open but has just two finishes better than 29th since then, with a T11 at the WGC-Workday Championship and T12 at The Masters the only times he's even caught sight of the leaders since January. His prior recent wins came at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, the Charles Schwab Challenge, the Military Tribute at The Greenbrier, not exactly the strongest lineup of fields. Colonial was even weak in 2019 he won, with a Strength of Field rating from the Official World Golf Ranking of 377 compared to 436 this year, 713 in 2020, and 412 in 2018.
In short, Na is a golfer who shines in the weaker fields and who has proven winning upside. We love him at this price.
Long Shots
Chez Reavie (+8000) - Reavie is another streaky iron player, one who has gained 4.0 or more strokes five times this season, highlighted by a 7.3 en route to a 3rd place finish at the Safeway Open. He's also lost 3.1 or more three times, all during an ugly stretch from March through May where he failed to make a cut after starting the Florida swing with a T49 at Bay Hill. He was in the top 40 in the world just a year ago, and while he's largely disappointed since then he's shown some signs lately with four straight events with positive strokes gained: approach figures, including two of those high marks. He's also lost strokes putting in four straight, and a change of luck could put him firmly in contention this week against a soft field.
Chesson Hadley (+16000) - Hadley putted the lights out before crumbling down the stretch at the Palmetto Championship, but it was not too long ago he was one of the premier iron players in the world. In the 2018 season, he was ninth on Tour in strokes gained: approach. As with the Palmetto, this is a weak field that opens the door for an out-of-the-blue winner. The variance ticks up even more given how friendly the scoring conditions are.
