PGA Betting Guide for the Farmers Insurance Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Farmers Insurance Open based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their odds over at Golf odds.
The first elite field of the new season takes on the great Torrey Pines Golf Course this week, and we have some difficult choices to make as we narrow down our card. Event history carries more weight at this event than a typical PGA Tour stop, and we've seen many prior winners play well year in and year out. Patrick Reed won here last year after finishes of T23, T13, and T6 in the years leading up, improving each time until and ultimately slamming the door on the field with a five-stroke victory.
Course history is not the only factor. We are looking for elite skills tee to green this week. We typically favor ballstriking over scrambling, but with huge, undulating greens, just about every golfer in the field will face a situation where creativity is required in some form. Great tee-to-green players are generally the best overall golfers, and given the history at Torrey, we are taking a top-heavy approach this week and keeping our long shots in the bag.
Keep in mind that this event starts Wednesday instead of the traditional Thursday tee-off, so get those bets in early!
For more info on Torrey Pines, along with this week's key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Justin Thomas (+1300) - The best stats, current form, and course history all belong to the man at the top of the board, Jon Rahm (+750). But in a loaded field on a short week, that price is just a bit too tight. So, we drop down to a more palatable JT, who made his first official visit to Torrey Pines since missing the cut in 2015 for last year's U.S. Open. He had a weird week in June; he had his worst approach week of the season and his best putting week. Expect that to regress this time around, but if he can putt even close to what he did at the U.S. Open, he could be set up for a huge week. He was 10th in 2014 and not nearly the player he is today, and his combination of ballstriking prowess and touch around the greens make him a great option.
Dustin Johnson (+2100) - Like Thomas, it's been a few years since Johnson played this event, last posting a missed cut in 2017. Arguably, Johnson has been just about the best golfer in the world over that span, and had he chosen to keep this event on his calendar, he'd have as much credibility as some of the inferior players who have owned Torrey. He also has a little revenge narrative going; his tied-for-19th finish in June behind Rahm's victory bumped him out of the top spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. Prime DJ does everything we want here -- mashes it off the tee, makes birdies, and cleans up on poa. He's a lock at almost any event at longer than 20/1.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2100) - This is slightly shorter than we'd like to see Hideki, but he is definitely attractive even at this price. Long approach shots and skill around the green are Deki's bread and butter, and we can't overlook the Augusta correlation with Torrey Pines. Matsuyama went seemingly a million years between wins and now has three in the last nine months, but he's always been one to ride when he's playing well. We can't expect a putting performance as we saw at the Sony Open, but he is due for an electric week with his irons after a steady start to the new season.
Value Spots
Brooks Koepka (+3600) - A meager record at the Farmers puts Koepka well behind the top of the board, but tied fourth at the U.S. Open catches the eye as Koepka looks to reassert himself this season. He always shines in strong fields and major championship setups, and we know when he is on his "A" game, he can beat just about anybody. He rewarded backers at last year's Waste Management Phoenix Open when the books dropped his price, and like Johnson, we are willing to back the pedigree for the price knowing his potential.
Long Shots
Matthew Wolff (+6500) - Wolff was on the card last week, and we're willing to give him another shot to earn our business after getting laughed off at the American Express. Wolff is feast or famine; he is not the golfer who is going to string together top-20s finishes in six of seven events. But, he carries winning upside and was in the mix in his last three events of 2020. The variance in his game makes him intriguing at any event when his price starts to dip, and if Torrey plays difficult this week, we like him even more to power through it.
Luke List (+9000) - List has fared well at Torrey the last couple of seasons, and his career-best finish of 10th came last year. He has plenty of length to tackle the South Course, but his short game is most intriguing. He's 16th this season in strokes gained: around the green, and he has gained strokes tee-to-green in all but one event over the past nine months. Like Wolff, we will know fairly early in the week if we are drawing dead, but if he keeps the driver in play, we can trust him with a long iron in his hand and around the greens. If he manages a positive putting week, don't be surprised to see him hang around the leaderboard all weekend.
