GOLF

The Memorial Tournament: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

Invitations are required to tee it up this week at Muirfield Village Golf Club. How should the strong field affect our daily fantasy and betting strategy?

A small, invite-only field awaits us this week on the PGA Tour for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club.

Any time we get such a strong field, it's hard to go against the favorites, but of course, we'll need value plays to round out our daily fantasy lineups.

Who stands out, then, at Muirfield Village?

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

Muirfield Village Golf Club Course Info & Key Stats

Par: 72
Distance: 7,543 (long: ~170 yards longer than the average par 72)
Fairway Acres/Yard: 3.2 (narrow: PGA average is 4.1)
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small: ~83% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: N/A
Past 5 Winning Scores: -13, -9, -19, -15, -13
Past 5 Cut Lines: +2, +3, +1, E, +3
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Birdie or Better Rate

The small, bentgrass green trend continues for a third straight week at Muirfield Village, and like we saw last week, fairways are narrow. The added test, though, is some extra length, as Muirfield Village tacks on a few extra yards compared to the average par 72 on the PGA Tour.

We see an emphasis on short game at Muirfield Village. The correlation between strokes gained: around the green and total strokes gained here is 27% stronger than at the average Tour course; off-the-tee play is just 78% as strong. The course table from data golf shows Muirfield Village as a top-five test in terms of around-the-green play, too, so it's not easy to pick up strokes there. (Iron play is still 12th.)

It's penal to miss the fairways, so driving accuracy has more value this week than most others. Overall, it's not that different from what we sought last week. In fact, Colonial is inside the top 20 in course comps, via data golf.

Win Simulations

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their Golf odds win odds.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Jon
Rahm
$11,9008.3%35.2%85.9%+1000
Patrick
Cantlay
$11,7006.2%40.9%89.4%+1700
Cameron
Smith
$11,1006.0%41.3%86.8%+1900
Rory
McIlroy
$11,8005.0%31.4%82.1%+1100
Collin
Morikawa
$11,3004.1%29.8%80.0%+1900
Viktor
Hovland
$10,9003.7%31.0%83.9%+2400
Shane
Lowry
$10,8003.4%29.1%84.2%+2200
Hideki
Matsuyama
$10,8003.1%24.6%78.0%+2500
Xander
Schauffele
$11,0003.0%24.6%82.7%+1700
Sungjae
Im
$10,4002.7%25.2%81.6%+3700
Jordan
Spieth
$11,5002.7%19.4%69.4%+1800
Daniel
Berger
$10,0002.3%25.6%81.7%+5000
Matt
Fitzpatrick
$10,5002.3%21.0%79.6%+2800
Will
Zalatoris
$10,7002.1%18.1%71.7%+2600
Corey
Conners
$9,7001.8%17.9%77.0%+5000
Cameron
Young
$10,2001.7%12.6%61.1%+3500
Max
Homa
$10,6001.6%16.0%72.1%+3400
Seamus
Power
$9,9001.3%17.0%77.3%+5500
Keegan
Bradley
$9,2001.3%13.0%68.7%+6500
Harris
English
$9,0001.3%15.5%67.6%+13000
Joaquin
Niemann
$10,3001.3%13.9%73.1%+4100
Billy
Horschel
$10,1001.3%14.7%73.1%+6500
Alex
Noren
$9,0001.2%15.7%74.7%+7500
Mito
Pereira
$9,9001.2%15.2%74.1%+5000
Chris
Kirk
$9,2001.1%12.2%71.5%+6500
Tom
Hoge
$9,6001.1%13.0%68.8%+7500
Aaron
Wise
$8,8001.0%13.7%72.3%+7000
Adam
Scott
$9,8001.0%13.1%70.3%+6500
Abraham
Ancer
$9,6000.9%12.5%70.1%+5500
Matt
Kuchar
$9,1000.9%12.1%72.2%+7500
Bryson
DeChambeau
$9,5000.8%10.9%59.2%+8500
Erik
van
Rooyen
$8,6000.8%10.4%64.0%+15000
Jason
Day
$9,5000.7%9.0%59.1%+5500
Marc
Leishman
$9,2000.7%10.6%67.6%+7000
Scott
Stallings
$8,0000.7%8.1%53.9%+15000
Siwoo
Kim
$9,3000.7%6.5%59.5%+7500
Kyoung-hoon
Lee
$8,4000.6%7.3%60.8%+13000
Lanto
Griffin
$8,7000.6%8.6%59.2%+15000
Adam
Hadwin
$8,9000.6%7.8%61.1%+15000
Patrick
Reed
$9,7000.6%7.8%59.6%+4800
Davis
Riley
$9,8000.5%6.3%55.1%+4800
Troy
Merritt
$8,5000.5%8.6%64.3%+18000
Brian
Harman
$9,5000.5%9.6%68.0%+9000
Cameron
Tringale
$9,3000.5%9.0%65.9%+11000
Russell
Knox
$8,7000.5%6.5%60.9%+13000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets

Starting at the top, both Cameron Smith and Patrick Cantlay are showing some value at their respective numbers. The model also has value on Daniel Berger at 50/1 and Sungjae Im at 37/1.

Personally, I like all of them just fine but am building around Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Smith at the top of the board.

Long shots and top-10s that jump off the page to me are Max Homa, Chris Kirk, Adam Hadwin, Keegan Bradley, and Tom Hoge.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Memorial Tournament

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Jon Rahm (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | Golf odds Win Odds: +1000) - You can't really go wrong with Rahm at Muirfield Village. He nearly went back-to-back last year but had to withdraw before closing out an inevitable win. The main issue with him right now is a weaker short game (specifically the wedges). No stud at the top is flawless right now, however, and the course form makes Rahm stand out.

Xander Schauffele ($11,000 | +1700) - Schauffele has reeled off three straight top-15s at this event and sits in the 97th percentile in adjusted tee to green play over the past year. He's also in the 83rd percentile in adjusted short game. I just said nobody is flawless, and while Schauffele doesn't have many issues, the only real one is sheer upside.

Others to Consider:
Cameron Smith ($11,100 | +1900)
Shane Lowry ($10,800 | +2200)
Cameron Young ($10,200 | +3500)

Mid-Range Picks

Mito Pereira ($9,900 | +5000) - The near major winner has a lot of promising stats for a course like this. He's an 87th-percentile golfer in adjusted tee to green play and has some expected putting regression coming his way, too. He should be able to get up and down well.

Chris Kirk ($9,200 | +6500) - Kirk is one of the best tee-to-green players in the field (90th percentile) when adjusting for field strength. His putter can be an issue, of course. Kirk was 26th here last year.

Others to Consider:
Daniel Berger ($10,000 | +5000)
Tom Hoge ($9,600 | +7500)
Keegan Bradley ($9,200 | +6500)

Low-Salaried Picks

Aaron Wise ($8,800 | +7000) - Coming off of a 0th here last year, Wise is building on his Rookie of the Year potential at the moment. Wise is in the 82nd percentile in adjusted tee-to-green play and in the 88th percentile in adjusted approach play. The putting regression splits suggest an improvement upcoming.

Adam Hadwin ($8,700 | +15000) - Hadwin has a spotty history here but has made three of four cuts since 2018. The irons have cooled off in recent events, yet we shouldn't buy into the small-sample blip. He's a plus iron player long-term and has an 81st-percentile adjusted short game.

Others to Consider:
Alexander Noren ($9,000 | +7500)
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($8,400 | +13000)
Cameron Davis ($8,200 | +11000)