GOLF

BMW Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The penultimate event of the PGA Tour's regular season is here. The BMW Championship at Wilmington Country Club comprises the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Playoffs for a no-cut event.

Who can solidify a spot in the top 30 for next week's TOUR Championship? Who has what it takes? What does it take at Wilmington?

Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.

You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.

Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks

Wilmington Country Club South Course Info & Key Stats

Par: 71
Distance: 7,534 (long: ~220 yards longer than the average par 71)
Fairway Acres/Yardage Ratio: 3.3 (narrow: PGA average is 4.2)
Average Green Size: 8,100 square feet (large: ~130% of the PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 12.5
Past 5 Winning Scores: N/A
Past 5 Cut Lines: N/A
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass, Birdie or Better Rate, FedEx Cup Standings

This course last hosted the 2013 Palmer Cup (a collegiate event between the United States and Europe). That means we do not have much context about which stats matter for this week based on historical precedent.

Of course, we can look at comparable courses and try to extrapolate.

At courses with similar ranks in length, green size, and fairway acreage, we see an added emphasis on distance and iron play compared to the average PGA Tour courses.

That also checks out when looking at a hole-by-hole view of the course. Two of the three par 5s are longer than 630 yards, and the other is 582 (still longer than the usual par 5 at around 560). Three of the 11 par 4s span at least 490 yards (i.e. 60 yards longer than the average par 4).

Added length, then, on six or seven holes (there's a 234-yard par 3, too), will be a help.

For this reason, I'm letting distance and irons dictate the process this week. Those who lack in one or both should be at a consistent disadvantage.

Golfers With Great Course/Event History

This course last hosted the 2013 Palmer Cup. Justin Thomas played in it.

Win Simulations for the BMW Championship

Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Golfer FanDuel
Salary
Win% Top-
10%
Made
Cut%
FanDuel
Sportsbook
Win
Odds
Rory
McIlroy
$11,8009.3%46.1%100.0%+1000
Scottie
Scheffler
$11,5005.8%35.7%100.0%+1600
Justin
Thomas
$11,2005.5%35.4%100.0%+1600
Jon
Rahm
$11,4004.7%32.0%100.0%+1400
Patrick
Cantlay
$11,1004.6%34.6%100.0%+1400
Matt
Fitzpatrick
$10,8004.3%33.0%100.0%+1600
Xander
Schauffele
$10,7003.9%30.9%100.0%+1900
Will
Zalatoris
$10,9003.7%30.4%100.0%+1400
Sungjae
Im
$10,1003.6%26.5%100.0%+2700
Tony
Finau
$11,0003.4%29.0%100.0%+1600
Sam
Burns
$10,5003.3%25.7%100.0%+1800
Viktor
Hovland
$10,2003.2%24.9%100.0%+2700
Cameron
Young
$10,4003.0%23.1%100.0%+2200
Joohyung
Kim
$9,8002.1%19.6%100.0%+2900
Collin
Morikawa
$10,6001.9%20.0%100.0%+1800
Hideki
Matsuyama
$9,9001.8%19.1%100.0%+4500
Joaquin
Niemann
$9,6001.8%18.8%100.0%+4500
Max
Homa
$9,3001.7%18.9%100.0%+5000
Corey
Conners
$9,5001.5%18.3%100.0%+4500
Shane
Lowry
$10,0001.5%20.5%100.0%+3400
Keegan
Bradley
$8,7001.3%13.9%100.0%+8000
Billy
Horschel
$9,7001.3%16.4%100.0%+4500
Jordan
Spieth
$10,3001.2%14.8%100.0%+3100
Tyrrell
Hatton
$9,4001.2%14.2%100.0%+5000
Brian
Harman
$8,8001.2%13.2%100.0%+7500
Russell
Henley
$9,1001.2%16.2%100.0%+5500
Seamus
Power
$8,5001.1%14.6%100.0%+10000
Aaron
Wise
$9,0001.1%17.0%100.0%+5500
Keith
Mitchell
$8,6001.0%13.8%100.0%+8000
Mito
Pereira
$8,2001.0%13.3%100.0%+11000
Sebastian
Munoz
$7,4001.0%11.4%100.0%+16000
Denny
McCarthy
$8,1000.9%12.5%100.0%+12000
Adam
Scott
$9,2000.9%12.6%100.0%+5500
Scott
Stallings
$8,2000.9%10.8%100.0%+11000
Alex
Noren
$7,9000.8%12.2%100.0%+12000
Matt
Kuchar
$7,0000.7%10.0%100.0%+27000
Harold
Varner
III
$8,3000.7%13.9%100.0%+11000
Tom
Hoge
$8,4000.7%10.7%100.0%+11000
Cameron
Davis
$8,9000.7%9.4%100.0%+6000
Taylor
Pendrith
$8,7000.7%9.8%100.0%+6500
Christiaan
Bezuidenhout
$8,0000.6%9.9%100.0%+12000
J.J.
Spaun
$7,0000.6%8.2%100.0%+21000
Davis
Riley
$8,8000.6%9.5%100.0%+6500
Adam
Hadwin
$7,7000.5%8.6%100.0%+14000
Chris
Kirk
$7,7000.5%9.8%100.0%+12000
J.T.
Poston
$8,4000.5%9.4%100.0%+9500
Siwoo
Kim
$8,5000.5%9.5%100.0%+10000
Sahith
Theegala
$8,9000.5%8.2%100.0%+8000
Kevin
Kisner
$8,0000.5%7.9%100.0%+12000
Marc
Leishman
$7,5000.5%7.8%100.0%+16000
Brendan
Steele
$7,8000.5%7.7%100.0%+12000

Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the BMW Championship

The model once again likes Rory McIlroy even a little more than the actual betting odds. If we're selling out for distance and irons, then Rory fits. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas are also pretty fair values as far as golf favorites go.

Though the model is a bit lower on Xander Schauffele, I still like him at +1900 well enough to bet him. He has no holes in his game, and that helps him shine through at no-cut events, where he has three career wins.

I may let myself get heavy on favorites and start a card with Rory, Thomas, and Xander, my three favorite plays in a vacuum this week.

I won't want to have heavy outright exposure on long shots given the tendency for favorites to find a way to get it done in no-cut, tough-field events. That said, top-10s and top-20s I'm eyeing include Joaquin Niemann, Max Homa, Cam Davis, Taylor Pendrith, and Keegan Bradley.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the BMW Championship

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Rory McIlroy (FanDuel Salary: $11,800 | Golf odds Win Odds: +1000 | FedEx Cup Rank: 9th) - McIlroy, once again, makes sense to target this week. If we are okay targeting golfers who are long off the tee and have elite irons, then we have to consider Rory. McIlroy also is a pretty phenomenal bentgrass putter (97th-percentile over the past 50 rounds). He's the best birdie-maker in the field and the second-longest driver, as well.

Justin Thomas ($11,200 | +1600 | 10th) - If we look at spike weeks -- or 80th-percentile outcomes in adjusted strokes gained: tee to green and putting -- over the past year, Thomas' 81.3% tee-to-green spike week rate is the only rate in the field above 66.7%. And while he's not known for surefire putting, he has spike weeks at a 31.3% rate, well over the expected mark (of around 20% given the cutoff I'm using). He's got 87th-percentile distance and 90th-percentile irons.

Others to Consider:
Will Zalatoris ($10,900 | +1400 | 1st) - A chalky play this week after a win but the leader in approach and long off the tee.
Xander Schauffele ($10,700 | +1900 | 6th) - A no-cut stud; 66.7% tee-to-green spike week rate; 84th-percentile expected putting.
Sam Burns ($10,500 | +1800 | 4th) - Long off the tee and an elite iron player and putter; should fit perfectly at Wilmington.

Mid-Range Picks

Joaquin Niemann ($9,600 | +4500 | 19th) - Niemann doesn't jump off the page as someone who would be a long driver, but he is (66th-percentile), and the irons (70th-percentile) are there as well. What also clicks for Niemann here is plus putting on bentgrass (0.22 strokes per round over the past 50) while being a stellar birdie-maker (90th percentile) who can convert on the par 5s (88th-percentile in strokes gained on par 5s).

Max Homa ($9,300 | +5000 | 16th) - A lot of what we can say about Niemann applies to Homa, only Homa is a much better overall putter (94th-percentile in expected putting). But he's long enough (76th-percentile) to score well on the par 5s (91st-percentile). We're also getting 69th-percentile irons with Homa, who can climb the FedEx Cup Rankings with a solid finish this week and earn himself more strokes for the TOUR Championship.

Others to Consider:
Corey Conners ($9,500 | +4500 | 30th) - A strong showing can secure him a spot next week; big putting regression candidate, too.
Adam Scott ($9,200 | +5500 | 46th) - A T5 last week vaulted him to 46th from 82nd; has plus distance, irons, and bentgrass putting.

Low-Salaried Picks

Cam Davis ($8,900 | +6000 | 52nd) - Davis is a really boom-or-bust type of play this week. The reasons we can buy into a boom: he has 88th-percentile bentgrass putting supported by good underlying distance splits, he has 81st-percentile distance, and he has 52nd-percentile irons. The worries about a bust come in with field-worst accuracy, 3rd-percentile par 4 scoring, and an overall below-average short game when we factor in wedges. Still, he can overpower this course, and that has appeal.

Mito Pereira ($8,200 | +11000 | 42nd) - Mito finds himself on the cusp of advancing to next week but can be rostered at a really reasonable salary. He offers us average distance but elite ball-striking overall and has spike weeks unmatched by anyone in this salary tier.

Others to Consider:
Taylor Pendrith ($8,700 | +6500 | 69th) - Very similar profile to Cam Davis; needs a home run to get into top-30 for next week.
Keegan Bradley ($8,700 | +8000 | 45th) - Good underlying splits lately with the flat stick; 58th-percentile irons and plus distance (69th).
Keith Mitchell ($8,600 | +8000 | 39th) - 93rd-percentile bentgrass putter and 88th-percentile distance.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,000 | +21000 | 49th) - 90th-percentile distance and field-average irons; not the worst minimum-salary profile by any means.