Shriners Children's Open: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
The PGA Tour heads to a familiar site this week: TPC Summerlin. The field is headlined by Patrick Cantlay -- and fellow Presidents Cup participants Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Mito Pereira, Cam Davis, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Si Woo Kim, and Taylor Pendrith are all here, too.
Let's dig into the course, the key stats, the win simulations, and the best bets of the week.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
TPC Summerlin Course Info & Key Stats
Distance: 7,255 (Average: ~60 yards shorter than the average par 71)
Fairway Width: 34.2 yards (45th-narrowest of 80 courses)
Average Green Size: 7,400 square feet (Large: ~120% of Tour average)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Past 5 Winning Scores: -24, -23, -23, -21, -9,
Past 5 Cut Lines: -5, -7, -5, -3, +1
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better, Adjusted Strokes Gained (to account for Korn Ferry Tour graduates), Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The overall goal for TPC Summerlin is to keep it in play off the tee, hit the big greens, and make your putts.
Strokes gained: off the tee don't tell us too much about who finds success here: it's about average in terms of correlating with total strokes gained. Overall, it's a non-descript course (statistically speaking), and that means we don't need to spend too much time finding nitpicky, granular stats and can instead prop up overall ability and game theory when building our lineups.
Notably, it's hard to gain strokes around the green here, and around-the-green play does correlate pretty heavily with total strokes gained at this event. That said, it's more random than even putting based on the research I've done. It's a key stat, but it's at the bottom of the list.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages at this event over the past five years among golfers with at least two starts include:
Past winners at this course among the field:
Win Simulations for the Shriners Children's Open
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds this week at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Shriners Children's Open
The odds are a bit too steep on Patrick Cantlay at +700, according to the model, and with viable picks elsewhere at the top, I'll be starting my card farther down the board -- but not much farther.
Sungjae Im is fair at +1200. He'll have to shake the "returning champ" narrative, but he was dominant here a year ago and is still in great form.
Im is my starting point, and from there, I'll be targeting sprinkles of this tier at longer odds -- as well as Mito Pereira (+6000).
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Shriners Children's Open
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Patrick Cantlay (FanDuel Salary: $12,000 | Golf betting odds: +700) - There's no way around it: Cantlay is the best play of the week from a process standpoint. He's more than a third of a shot per round better than anyone else in the field over the past year in my database, and he has been great at TPC Summerlin in his career: win, 2nd, 2nd, T8. That'll work. Cantlay's a statistical stud, and the only reason to consider avoiding him is popularity.
Sungjae Im ($11,800 | +1200) - Last year's winner, Sungjae Im is a strong core-play candidate, and we have a few values to target, so a Cantlay/Im start is not out of the question to maximize win equity (they make up around 17% of wins in my model). Sungjae leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green and is top-15 in all individual tee-to-green stats over the past 50 rounds. Im's dominant win here last year came on the back of field-best T2G numbers plus top-10 putting strokes gained.
Others to Consider:
Max Homa ($11,600 | +1600) - Field drops off after Homa, so if fading Cantlay and Im, strongly consider Homa.
Taylor Pendrith ($10,800 | +4500) - Could bounce back from a weak Presidents Cup; 4th in ball-striking among the field.
Davis Riley ($10,400 | +3700) - 10th in T2G with plus distance; T19 last week while ranking 17th in approach.
Matt Kuchar ($9,500 | +6500) - There's still some pop for Kuchar at the right courses, and this can be one of them. Kuchar has made three straight cuts at this event since 2019, though no finishes were top-30s. Kuchar did finish T12 at the Fortinet, though, and that came while losing strokes from putting. He was actually ninth in strokes gained: tee to green in that event. Kuchar's rate stats are fine, especially when overlooking off-the-tee play. He's fourth in strokes gained without OTT play factored in.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($9,600 | +6000) - K.H. Lee shouldn't be forgotten about this week in favor of the higher-profile Korean Presidents Cup competitors. Lee ranks 18th in the field in strokes gained average and is top-50 in all four stats -- and in both driving distance and accuracy. Lee was 14th here a year ago while ranking above field-average in all four strokes gained stats -- and driving distance and accuracy. His good all-around game has value at a course like this and in a field like this.
Others to Consider:
J.T. Poston ($9,700 | +4500) - Hot streak might be over; if not, an elite fairway-through-green game at a mid-range salary.
Gary Woodland ($9,500 | +6500) - 13th in the field in T2G; horrible putter right now.
Kurt Kitayama ($9,100 | +6500) - Doesn't really have a hole in his game; T19 at BMW Championship, T32 at BMW PGA Championship. T7 at Italian Open.
Mito Pereira ($8,200 | +6000) - The salary is really low on Mito this week, and we can take advantage. Pereira ranks 16th in total strokes gained over the past 50 rounds as well as 2nd in approach and 8th in tee-to-green. The short game is weak right now (83rd overall), and that's bogged down the results. Last year at the Shriners, Periera put on a stripe show with the driver and irons to rank top-seven in both strokes gained: off the tee and approach. But he was 70th among 72 cut-makers in both short-game stats.
Stephan Jaeger ($8,700 | +9500) - He's 80th in strokes gained: off the tee among the field but 26th in approach and 3rd around the green, a game that could pay off this week. Jaeger has started off the new season T43 at the Fortinet and T30 at the Sanderson Farms while riding a hot short game. His irons are bad right now, yet the longer-term sample on said irons is good. So that should cancel out a bit, and we should be seeing a solid outing for Jaeger here this week.
Others to Consider:
Adam Svensson ($8,700 | +11000) - Checks the volatility boxes of being good in approach (32nd) and putting (31st).
Brendon Todd ($8,600 | +14000) - A Kuchar-esque profile with top-60 APP and ARG numbers with an elite putter.
Callum Tarren ($8,300 | +8000) - Looked good last week en route to a T13; ranks 30th in strokes gained: approach.