PGA Betting Guide for the Hero World Challenge
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. However, finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they select a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Hero World Challenge based on current form, course fit, and -- of course -- the value of their golf odds.
The final individual event of the year won't award any FedEx Cup Points but will hand out some dough, with the winner nabbing a cool $1 million and even the last of these 19 golfers getting a six-figure payout. Tiger Woods' annual showcase will once again go off without him in the field after he withdrew.
As for the field, the stars come out for Tiger as usual, with 17 of the 20 golfers in the field in the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking. Strong, small fields come down to who can get hot for a weekend over any wide disparity in talent, and most of the field has a number under 30/1. Our card comes down to value, as always, but with this crew, it's okay to give extra weight to whoever we like in our gut.
For more info on Albany Golf Course, along with this week's key stats, check out Brandon Gdula's primer.
Justin Thomas (+1200) - Sometimes things are simple: Thomas has the same odds here as he does to win the U.S. Open in June. Again, there are only 20 (!) golfers in this event, and while you can make the case that fewer than that number have a real chance in any given major, the odds of any individual golfer here are just inherently far more favorable. Thomas never misses a trip to the Bahamas to pal it up with Woods, and he had his best shot to win here in 2019 before fading on Sunday to T5. Coincidentally, he had the opposite issue last year, firing a Sunday-best 64 to climb into another tie for fifth place.
Thomas' gifts are well-trodden territory -- he's an elite ball-striker and scrambler who wins more often than not when the driver or putter is hot. At the same number we get in full fields, he's a no-brainer to start our card.
Joohyung Kim (+1800) - In a crowded field of young studs on Tour, Tom Kim has burst through to find incredible success at just 20 years old. Across PGA, Korean, and Asian Tours in 2021 and 2022, Kim has four wins and six runner-ups, along with a slew of more top 10s. He started the new season with one of those wins at the Shriners Children's Open, T25 at the ZOZO Championship, T11 at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina, and T4 at the Dunlop Phoenix Open (Japan Golf Tour) last week.
That last finish is key -- Kim is one of the few golfers in the field who arrives in form and with no rust. The kid loves to play, and who wouldn't when the results look like this? His ascension to the top of the sport could start this week with a splash among the world's best.
Sam Burns (+1800) - Another of our favorites, Burns loves putting on Bermuda greens and has turned into a reliable approach player after some inconsistency early in his career. The driver is another strength, and, well, folks, that's most of the game of golf. We could point to the small greens here as exposing Burns' weak spot (his chipping and around-the-green play), but tiny greens at Colonial were no issue for him when he won there this past summer.
Whoever wins will need to rack up birdies to get to around 18- to 20-under par, which is likely what it'll take to win, and Burns will happily oblige -- he was 8th in birdie average and 14th in scoring average last year. He was third here last year in his Hero debut, and he can close out a terrific 2022 in style with a tone-setting win heading into the New Year.