Wells Fargo Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
After Tony Finau and Jon Rahm dominated the Mexico Open's weak field, the PGA Tour's designated action is back for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club.
It's a tough course and a great field, and that impacts the ideal strategy for PGA DFS and betting decisions.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
Quail Hollow Club Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 71
Distance: 7,538 (around 240 yards longer than the average par 71)
Fairway Width: 30.8 yards (average; 25th of 80)
Average Green Size: 6,578 (larger; around 110% the PGA average)
Green Type: Poa Trivialis overseed
Stimpmeter: 12
Recent Winning Scores: -10, -15, -12, -9, -21
Recent Cut Lines: +2, +1, +3, +1, Even
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained
Quail Hollow, while a storied course historically on the PGA Tour, has had an in-and-out situation with the PGA Tour schedule. Last season, it hosted the Presidents Cup, so the Wells Fargo was held at TPC Potomac. In 2020, the event was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. And in 2017, the Wells Fargo was held at Eagle Point due to Quail Hollow hosting the PGA Championship.
That means just three regular PGA Tour events have been here over the past six years.
But anyway, it's a very long par 71 that puts an emphasis on driving distance and tends to separate the best from the rest. As a designated event, that's even more vital.
Of note, the -21 score in there was when Rory McIlroy beat the rest of the field by seven shots, so a winning score around -10 is much more likely.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):
| Golfer | Salary | Course SG:T/Rd |
2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy |
$12,100 | 2.56 | - | 1 | - | 8 | 16 |
| Nick Watney |
$7,000 | 2.25 | - | - | - | 31 | 2 |
| Joel Dahmen |
$8,900 | 2.23 | - | 18 | - | 2 | 16 |
| Jason Day |
$10,300 | 2.18 | - | MC | - | 24 | 1 |
| Keith Mitchell |
$9,600 | 2.15 | - | 3 | - | 8 | 34 |
| Emiliano Grillo |
$9,100 | 1.93 | - | 14 | - | - | 9 |
| Webb Simpson |
$9,000 | 1.63 | - | - | - | 18 | 21 |
| Max Homa |
$10,800 | 1.52 | - | MC | - | 1 | - |
| Rickie Fowler |
$10,100 | 1.48 | - | MC | - | 4 | 21 |
| Jason Dufner |
$7,000 | 1.40 | - | 43 | - | 4 | 42 |
| Luke List |
$7,900 | 1.31 | - | 6 | - | 65 | 9 |
| Justin Thomas |
$11,300 | 1.30 | - | 26 | - | - | 21 |
| Seamus Power |
$8,900 | 1.15 | - | 54 | - | 13 | 27 |
| Ben Martin |
$7,900 | 1.02 | - | 11 | - | - | MC |
| Doc Redman |
$7,000 | 1.02 | - | MC | - | 18 | - |
Past winners in the field include Rory McIlroy (2010, 2015, and 2021), Max Homa (2019), Jason Day (2018), James Hahn (2016), J.B. Holmes (2014), Rickie Fowler (2012), and Lucas Glover (2011).
Win Simulations for the Wells Fargo Championship
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $12,100 | 11.1% | 50.6% | 84.9% | +750 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,900 | 7.4% | 42.3% | 78.0% | +1400 |
| Tony Finau | $11,800 | 5.8% | 39.5% | 76.7% | +1700 |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,400 | 5.4% | 38.5% | 75.9% | +1600 |
| Cameron Young | $10,900 | 4.2% | 25.9% | 63.7% | +2100 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,100 | 3.7% | 26.3% | 64.8% | +2100 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,600 | 3.4% | 26.8% | 65.7% | +1900 |
| Viktor Hovland | $10,600 | 3.4% | 25.4% | 64.8% | +2100 |
| Jason Day | $10,300 | 3.0% | 21.8% | 60.0% | +2800 |
| Sungjae Im | $10,400 | 2.9% | 23.7% | 65.7% | +2300 |
| Max Homa | $10,800 | 2.8% | 26.4% | 67.4% | +2400 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,300 | 2.6% | 20.7% | 62.8% | +2100 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $10,500 | 2.5% | 24.2% | 65.0% | +2300 |
| Sam Burns | $10,200 | 2.1% | 18.0% | 56.3% | +3100 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $9,900 | 2.0% | 19.9% | 62.2% | +4800 |
| Sahith Theegala | $9,800 | 1.8% | 16.9% | 56.1% | +5000 |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,600 | 1.6% | 15.6% | 54.5% | +7000 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,100 | 1.6% | 15.2% | 57.2% | +4100 |
| Tom Kim | $10,000 | 1.4% | 18.7% | 60.4% | +4800 |
| Wyndham Clark | $9,300 | 1.3% | 14.8% | 56.4% | +7500 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $9,000 | 1.1% | 15.6% | 55.2% | +12000 |
| Taylor Moore | $9,500 | 1.0% | 12.2% | 51.8% | +8500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,700 | 0.9% | 12.9% | 53.0% | +5500 |
| Gary Woodland | $9,400 | 0.9% | 8.3% | 42.8% | +9000 |
| Corey Conners | $9,800 | 0.9% | 10.7% | 51.7% | +5000 |
| Keith Mitchell | $9,600 | 0.8% | 10.9% | 50.5% | +7000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | $8,600 | 0.7% | 9.5% | 45.3% | +13000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $9,000 | 0.7% | 9.3% | 46.5% | +12000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $8,600 | 0.7% | 9.8% | 49.4% | +18000 |
| Shane Lowry | $9,900 | 0.7% | 7.7% | 44.8% | +4800 |
| Hayden Buckley | $8,500 | 0.6% | 8.8% | 44.6% | +18000 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,700 | 0.6% | 10.1% | 50.3% | +7000 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,800 | 0.6% | 7.6% | 41.8% | +17000 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,300 | 0.6% | 9.6% | 48.8% | +10000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,600 | 0.6% | 7.7% | 43.0% | +18000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $8,600 | 0.6% | 9.6% | 48.2% | +18000 |
| Brian Harman | $9,400 | 0.6% | 8.0% | 47.5% | +9000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $9,100 | 0.6% | 7.7% | 42.3% | +12000 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,200 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 39.6% | +15000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,500 | 0.5% | 8.1% | 46.5% | +7500 |
| Cameron Davis | $9,200 | 0.5% | 7.4% | 41.6% | +9000 |
| Benjamin Griffin | $8,500 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 40.7% | +21000 |
| Byeong Hun An | $8,100 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 38.1% | +13000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,500 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 42.8% | +15000 |
| Davis Riley | $9,100 | 0.5% | 6.5% | 39.5% | +11000 |
| Adam Scott | $9,200 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 42.9% | +10000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Wells Fargo Championship
At the top of the board, Rory McIlroy, the betting favorite, is a bit overvalued. Unlike last week when the two heavy favorites were actually values, I'm not seeing it with the overall favorite this week.
That said, there's value on both Patrick Cantlay (+1400) and Tony Finau (+1700) from the model itself. I'm much more interested in Cantlay, as Finau just won last week, but the model isn't subjectively reducing expectations for guys who won last week.
Options down the board that deserve a look for outrights (but also finishing positions) include Tyrrell Hatton (+4800), Sahith Theegala (+5000), Keegan Bradley (+7000), Wyndham Clark (+7500), Taylor Montgomery (+12000), and Patrick Rodgers (+12000).
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Wells Fargo Championship
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Rory McIlroy (FanDuel Salary: $12,100 | Golf betting odds: +750) - The best play of the week, by far, is Rory McIlroy from a process standpoint. McIlroy ranks first in distance and strokes gained: off the tee over the past 50 rounds, and he is 13th in approach play and top-35 in both short-game stats. He's historically played Quail Hollow well, and his salary isn't high enough to write him off.
Cameron Young ($10,900 | +2100) - In a field like this one, we should be looking for any savings we can get while still getting access to an elite golfer. We have that with Young, who is a great course fit given his distance (he's second in the field behind just McIlroy). Overall, he's 4th in ball-striking but a less impressive 60th in combined short game. He hasn't played here before (his T2 at the event last year was at a different course) but has overcome that obstacle often in his young PGA Tour career.
Others to Consider:
Patrick Cantlay ($11,900 | +1400)
Xander Schauffele ($11,400 | +1600)
Max Homa ($10,800 | +2400)
Viktor Hovland ($10,600 | +2100)
Mid-Range Picks
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,900 | +4800) - Again, balanced builds make a lot of sense, and that can point us to Hatton at $9,900. Hatton is above average in distance (41st in the field) but a top-10 ball-striker based on the strokes gained data. We last saw him finish T19 at the RBC Heritage, but he's just a month removed from consecutive top-fives at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS.
Wyndham Clark ($9,300 | +7500) - If you want distance, Wyndham Clark is going to be on the short list. Clark is 11th in the field in driving distance, picking up an average of 13.4 yards on the average golfer in the world over the past 50 rounds. Clark was 43rd here in 2021, the most recent iteration of the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow, and he enters this year's event ranked 12th in approach.
Others to Consider:
Sahith Theegala ($9,800 | +5000)
Taylor Moore ($9,500 | +8500)
Low-Salaried Picks
Patrick Rodgers ($9,000 | +12000) - Rodgers has a rare blend of distance (36th) and short game (12th in around-the-green and 33rd in putting). Why is he still a value play, then? The irons (75th) lag behind the rest of his game. With that said, he has played Quail Hollow pretty well with a T2 in 2015, a missed cut in 2016, a T34 in 2018, and a T37 in 2021.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($8,600 | +18000) - When there's a loaded field and a tough course, it's never a bad thing to find well-rounded golfers. You can spin it the other way and say that one elite trait can carry a golfer when the rest of his game isn't on, but if everything is solid, it's easier to envision a higher floor. Lee is 80th in strokes gained: off the tee but top-50 in the other three strokes gained stats, and even that off-the-tee number is a respectable +0.09 per round. He's also made both cuts here in his career despite bad putting.
Others to Consider:
Taylor Montgomery ($9,000 | +12000)
Kurt Kitayama ($8,600 | +13000)
Sam Ryder ($8,300 | +22000)
