The Memorial Tournament: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
We've got a designated event on the schedule this week on the PGA Tour for the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio.
Seven of the top 10 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings are in the field, and 19 of the top 25 are teeing it up, as well.
How does that impact our lineups this week? What do we need to know about the course? Let's dig in.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
Muirfield Village Golf Club Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 72
Distance: 7,571 (long)
Fairway Width: 34.4 yards (average; 49th of 80)
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small; PGA average: ~6,000)
Green Type: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: N/A
Recent Winning Scores: -13, -13, -9, -19, -15
Recent Cut Lines: +2, +2, +3, +1, E
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Total Strokes Gained, Birdie or Better Rate
Muirfield Village is a tough course from a driving standpoint. It's a long course with moderate fairway widths but with extremely penalizing rough.
Combine that with the small greens, and it's not a surprise that winning scores trend around 12- to 13-under par. Notably, the past winners have won by four strokes, in a playoff, three strokes, two strokes, a playoff, and three strokes. While we can definitely get tight contests here, lately, someone has separated. That really puts the scoring conditions in context, as the winning score is low even with some multi-stroke winners lately.
So, in total, despite the distance, we need accuracy, irons, and wedges for when golfers inevitably miss these small greens.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Course SG:T/Rd |
2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm |
$12,000 | 4.29 | 10 | W/D | 1 | - | - |
| Patrick Cantlay |
$11,800 | 3.20 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 4 |
| Scottie Scheffler |
$12,100 | 2.61 | - | 3 | 22 | - | - |
| Matt Wallace |
$7,800 | 1.89 | - | MC | 4 | - | - |
| Sahith Theegala |
$9,600 | 1.69 | 5 | 32 | - | - | - |
| Collin Morikawa |
$11,300 | 1.58 | MC | 2 | 48 | - | - |
| Si Woo Kim |
$9,600 | 1.50 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 41 | 29 |
| Xander Schauffele |
$11,400 | 1.47 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 14 | MC |
| Jordan Spieth |
$10,800 | 1.42 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 7 | MC |
| Adam Scott |
$9,700 | 1.33 | 67 | 16 | - | 2 | 35 |
| Rory McIlroy |
$11,600 | 1.28 | 18 | 18 | 32 | MC | 8 |
| Billy Horschel |
$9,400 | 1.25 | 1 | 67 | 13 | 9 | MC |
| Kevin Streelman |
$7,800 | 1.03 | MC | 13 | 54 | 4 | 44 |
| Rickie Fowler |
$10,000 | 1.01 | 64 | 11 | MC | 14 | 8 |
Past winners in the field include Billy Horschel (2022), Patrick Cantlay (2019 and 2021), Jon Rahm (2020 -- and a withdrawal while leading in 2021), Jason Dufner (2017), William McGirt (2016), David Lingmerth (2015), Hideki Matsuyama (2014), Matt Kuchar (2013), and K.J. Choi (2007).
Win Simulations for the Memorial Tournament
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler |
$12,100 | 12.5% | 53.4% | 92.3% | +600 |
| Jon Rahm |
$12,000 | 11.8% | 55.6% | 92.5% | +700 |
| Patrick Cantlay |
$11,800 | 7.9% | 45.9% | 91.1% | +1000 |
| Xander Schauffele |
$11,400 | 6.8% | 43.0% | 90.6% | +1200 |
| Rory McIlroy |
$11,600 | 3.8% | 33.2% | 86.1% | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland |
$11,100 | 3.4% | 27.3% | 81.1% | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa |
$11,300 | 3.3% | 26.8% | 81.2% | +2200 |
| Sungjae Im |
$10,300 | 2.6% | 24.9% | 82.5% | +3500 |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
$10,400 | 2.6% | 25.1% | 82.1% | +2500 |
| Jason Day |
$10,600 | 2.5% | 23.3% | 78.9% | +2800 |
| Jordan Spieth |
$10,800 | 1.8% | 17.2% | 74.0% | +3500 |
| Rickie Fowler |
$10,000 | 1.8% | 18.7% | 78.1% | +3500 |
| Russell Henley |
$9,500 | 1.7% | 17.2% | 77.1% | +5500 |
| Tom Kim |
$9,800 | 1.6% | 21.3% | 80.1% | +6000 |
| Justin Thomas |
$10,900 | 1.6% | 15.6% | 75.4% | +3000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick |
$10,200 | 1.4% | 19.5% | 78.3% | +3500 |
| Cameron Young |
$10,500 | 1.4% | 13.5% | 69.1% | +3500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama |
$10,100 | 1.3% | 14.6% | 75.0% | +3500 |
| Corey Conners |
$9,900 | 1.3% | 15.3% | 75.9% | +4500 |
| Keegan Bradley |
$9,500 | 1.2% | 15.1% | 71.1% | +9000 |
| Si Woo Kim |
$9,600 | 1.2% | 12.7% | 73.5% | +6500 |
| Sahith Theegala |
$9,600 | 1.1% | 14.2% | 70.3% | +5500 |
| Sam Burns |
$9,900 | 1.0% | 12.1% | 67.5% | +4500 |
| Matt Kuchar |
$8,900 | 1.0% | 12.7% | 73.8% | +10000 |
| Denny McCarthy |
$9,300 | 0.9% | 14.1% | 74.2% | +15000 |
| Wyndham Clark |
$9,700 | 0.9% | 13.4% | 71.5% | +6000 |
| Shane Lowry |
$9,800 | 0.8% | 8.9% | 66.7% | +5500 |
| Hayden Buckley |
$8,400 | 0.7% | 9.5% | 65.1% | +25000 |
| Adam Hadwin |
$8,900 | 0.7% | 10.3% | 67.1% | +15000 |
| Brendon Todd |
$8,400 | 0.7% | 11.1% | 69.3% | +25000 |
| Emiliano Grillo |
$9,200 | 0.6% | 8.9% | 65.5% | +12000 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee |
$8,800 | 0.6% | 8.6% | 66.6% | +15000 |
| Brian Harman |
$9,100 | 0.6% | 10.6% | 68.8% | +17000 |
| Gary Woodland |
$9,400 | 0.6% | 7.1% | 61.6% | +12000 |
| Chris Kirk |
$9,100 | 0.5% | 8.6% | 68.2% | +15000 |
| Adam Scott |
$9,700 | 0.5% | 7.4% | 64.4% | +5000 |
| Andrew Putnam |
$7,900 | 0.5% | 11.9% | 71.6% | +25000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
$8,600 | 0.5% | 8.4% | 65.3% | +22000 |
| Tom Hoge |
$8,600 | 0.5% | 8.5% | 66.4% | +20000 |
| Kurt Kitayama |
$9,000 | 0.5% | 6.9% | 61.1% | +15000 |
| Adam Svensson |
$8,200 | 0.5% | 8.2% | 63.9% | +20000 |
| Cameron Davis |
$9,300 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 59.6% | +12000 |
| Taylor Montgomery |
$8,700 | 0.4% | 9.1% | 64.2% | +22000 |
| Stephan Jaeger |
$8,700 | 0.4% | 6.4% | 63.9% | +20000 |
| Patrick Rodgers |
$8,800 | 0.4% | 6.2% | 60.9% | +20000 |
| J.J. Spaun |
$8,300 | 0.4% | 7.3% | 65.0% | +27000 |
| Brandon Wu |
$8,200 | 0.4% | 6.4% | 58.9% | +40000 |
| Harris English |
$9,000 | 0.4% | 6.1% | 58.2% | +15000 |
| Benjamin Griffin |
$7,900 | 0.4% | 6.8% | 59.4% | +35000 |
| J.T. Poston |
$8,300 | 0.4% | 6.4% | 63.3% | +30000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Memorial Tournament
I'm not seeing a lot of glaring value in the model this week.
Patrick Cantlay is justifiable at +1000, and I'll get in on Sungjae Im (+3500), but other than that, I'm looking more to some partial units on long shots, including Russell Henley (+5500), Tom Kim (+6000), Keegan Bradley (+9000), and Matt Kuchar (+10000).
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Memorial Tournament
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel Salary: $12,100 | Golf betting odds: +600) - The two top dogs are really hard to differentiate. Scheffler is more dominant right now from a tee-to-green standpoint (nearly a stroke per round better than anyone else), but Jon Rahm ($12,000) has elite form at Muirfield Village. But Scheffler has been T22 and 3rd in his two starts at this course for the Memorial. You can't really go wrong, but I'm leaning Scheffler given the particular setup and his dominant ball-striking.
Xander Schauffele ($11,400 | +1200) - Xander has four straight top-20 results at this event and is once again under-salaried. His salary ebbs and flows a bit, and after his woeful T18 at the PGA Championship (sarcasm, by the way), his salary is toward the low end of the stud tier. Schauffele is third in the field in strokes gained: approach and is sixth overall tee-to-green.
Others to Consider:
Jon Rahm ($12,000 | +700)
Jason Day ($10,600 | +2800)
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,400 | +2500)
Mid-Range Picks
Rickie Fowler ($10,000 | +3500) - Coming off of a T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Fowler got back on track after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. He did have a lot of strokes gained from his around-the-green play, which isn't super bankable. However, he still had good iron play, and over the past 50 rounds, Fowler ranks sixth in this field in approach play. We've also seen him finish top-15 here three times in the past five events.
Russell Henley ($9,500 | +5500) - Accurate (1st) but not long (103rd), Henley is a solid course fit who has plus iron play. His biggest drawback is the putter (84th), but that's downgrade a bit this week anyway. Henley, like Fowler, bounced back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship to finish T16 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He gained a lot of strokes with the putter, which he's been doing more lately. Perhaps the putter is getting figured out.
Others to Consider:
Si Woo Kim ($9,600 | +6500)
Denny McCarthy ($9,300 | +15000)
Chris Kirk ($9,100 | +15000)
Low-Salaried Picks
Matt Kuchar ($8,900 | +10000) - The win equity falls off a cliff in this event, and there's not a ton of difference between the low $9,000 range and the upper $8,000 range, so that helps with roster construction. Kuchar really does stand out as someone who is under-salaried, though. He's often at a course setup disadvantage due to his lack of distance (99th). That's not really the case this week. Kuchar was 45th here last year, and he had four consecutive top-25s entering the AT&T Byron Nelson before a T43 there and a missed cut at the PGA Championship with poor putting in each.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($8,800 | +15000) - Pretty much any time Lee is at a reasonable salary, he's viable. That's because he's just solid at everything. Lee ranks between 43rd and 66th in all four strokes gained stats, and he's finished T37, T65, and T53 at this event while never putting well. A better putting output means top-20 potential with the rest of his game being solid.
Others to Consider:
Hayden Buckley ($8,400 | +25000)
Brendon Todd ($8,400 | +25000)
Adam Svensson ($8,200 | +20000)
