Travelers Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations
Since 1984, TPC River Highlands has hosted this event, known as the Travelers Championship since 2007.
That means a ton of past course stats to build upon for our golfer selection and past history to lean on -- if that's something you like to factor in.
How does all of this impact our lineups this week? Let's dig in.
You can jump ahead to any specific section of the piece you would like.
Course Information and Key Stats
Golfers With Great Course History
Win Simulations
Best Bets
Daily Fantasy Picks
TPC River Highlands Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 70
Distance: 6,852 (very short: ~370 yards shorter than the average par 70)
Fairway Width: 33.7 yards (wide: 71st of 84 courses)
Average Green Size: 5,000 square feet (small: 85% of PGA average)
Green Type: Bentgrass/Poa
Stimpmeter: N/A
Recent Winning Scores: -19, -13, -19, -17, -17
Recent Cut Lines: -2, -2, -4, -2, -2
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (fairly heavy emphasis on Driving Accuracy), Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained
Generally speaking, approach play matters less at TPC River Highlands than at the average PGA Tour course, but it's still the most vital stat of all, on par with only putting -- which is a lot more variable.
Courses don't really get much shorter than this one, and the primary defense is the fairway width. The missed fairway penalty is the 15th-heaviest at this course, per datagolf.
Accuracy, irons, and putting is typically the key to success here.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
These golfers have the best strokes gained averages (minimum two starts) over the past five years at this course.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Course SG:T/Rd |
2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | $11,600 | 2.25 | 1 | - | 20 | - | MC |
| Brian Harman | $9,100 | 2.05 | 8 | 5 | MC | 8 | 6 |
| Sahith Theegala | $9,900 | 1.97 | 2 | - | MC | - | - |
| Rory McIlroy | $12,000 | 1.87 | 19 | - | 11 | - | 12 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,800 | 1.84 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 15 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,200 | 1.77 | 8 | 25 | 46 | 1 | MC |
| Kevin Streelman | $7,500 | 1.66 | 25 | MC | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,000 | 1.51 | 6 | 5 | MC | 15 | - |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,500 | 1.22 | 46 | - | - | 13 | - |
| Jason Day | $10,000 | 1.19 | MC | 10 | 46 | 8 | 12 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,400 | 1.12 | MC | 30 | 11 | - | - |
| Scott Stallings | $7,400 | 1.09 | 8 | MC | 6 | MC | 38 |
| Russell Henley | $9,500 | 1.07 | - | 19 | 32 | MC | 6 |
| Beau Hossler | $8,400 | 1.03 | MC | 10 | MC | 78 | 2 |
| Kramer Hickok | $7,000 | 1.03 | MC | 2 | - | 60 | - |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,400 | 1.00 | 19 | MC | MC | 2 | 47 |
| Zach Johnson | $7,000 | 1.00 | MC | 25 | 11 | - | 19 |
| Robert Streb | $7,000 | 1.00 | 35 | 19 | MC | 21 | MC |
Past winners in the field include Xander Schauffele (2022), Harris English (2021), Chez Reavie (2019), Russell Knox (2016), Kevin Streelman (2014), and Stewart Cink (1997 and 2008).
Win Simulations for the Travelers Championship
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | FanDuel Salary |
Win% | Top- 10% |
Made Cut% |
FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $12,300 | 14.0% | 55.4% | 89.4% | +600 |
| Jon Rahm | $12,100 | 8.1% | 45.4% | 85.0% | +1100 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,800 | 7.2% | 40.1% | 84.7% | +1000 |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,600 | 5.9% | 38.5% | 82.7% | +1400 |
| Rory McIlroy | $12,000 | 5.1% | 32.9% | 81.0% | +1100 |
| Viktor Hovland | $11,400 | 4.5% | 30.7% | 77.0% | +2000 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,100 | 3.9% | 29.6% | 76.5% | +2500 |
| Tony Finau | $10,900 | 3.0% | 26.7% | 76.3% | +3500 |
| Rickie Fowler | $10,200 | 2.5% | 22.7% | 71.8% | +4000 |
| Russell Henley | $9,500 | 2.3% | 21.0% | 72.2% | +4000 |
| Sungjae Im | $9,800 | 2.2% | 20.1% | 70.7% | +5000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,500 | 1.9% | 19.4% | 70.3% | +2500 |
| Jason Day | $10,000 | 1.8% | 16.6% | 65.4% | +5500 |
| Max Homa | $10,400 | 1.7% | 21.1% | 72.7% | +5000 |
| Tom Kim | $9,600 | 1.6% | 19.4% | 71.4% | +3500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,500 | 1.5% | 15.2% | 67.0% | +4500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,900 | 1.4% | 14.6% | 63.2% | +4500 |
| Wyndham Clark | $10,100 | 1.3% | 15.3% | 66.0% | +5000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $10,800 | 1.2% | 15.7% | 68.0% | +4000 |
| Corey Conners | $9,700 | 1.1% | 13.4% | 63.9% | +8000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $9,200 | 1.0% | 13.9% | 65.7% | +8000 |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,400 | 1.0% | 11.9% | 60.8% | +10000 |
| Cameron Young | $10,600 | 0.8% | 9.5% | 57.9% | +5000 |
| Shane Lowry | $9,700 | 0.8% | 9.2% | 57.4% | +7000 |
| Sahith Theegala | $9,900 | 0.8% | 10.0% | 56.9% | +6000 |
| Andrew Putnam | $8,200 | 0.7% | 12.3% | 63.7% | +15000 |
| Brian Harman | $9,100 | 0.6% | 8.1% | 56.6% | +6500 |
| Gary Woodland | $9,300 | 0.6% | 8.4% | 54.3% | +12000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | $8,500 | 0.6% | 9.0% | 55.2% | +15000 |
| Aaron Rai | $8,700 | 0.6% | 8.4% | 56.6% | +12000 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,300 | 0.6% | 8.4% | 57.0% | +6000 |
| Taylor Moore | $8,900 | 0.5% | 9.5% | 59.0% | +20000 |
| Harris English | $9,300 | 0.5% | 7.0% | 52.2% | +7000 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,400 | 0.5% | 8.5% | 55.8% | +30000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | $8,700 | 0.5% | 6.2% | 52.3% | +17000 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,200 | 0.5% | 8.9% | 57.9% | +15000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,800 | 0.5% | 6.6% | 53.1% | +12000 |
| Min Woo Lee | $9,400 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 50.4% | +7000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the Travelers Championship
The favorite, Scottie Scheffler has seen his odds shifted around a bit. My model likes him around +620, so I'm not quite there at +600, but it's not an egregious number. With better putting, Scheffler is bound for a dominant win.
With a lot of win equity going his way, there's not a lot of value the rest of the way right now. I'm in for Collin Morikawa (+2500) and Sungjae Im (+5000), two accurate drivers with good irons (specifically Morikawa, obviously).
The model also shows value on Tony Finau at+3500 specifically. And there's slight value on Rickie Fowler now at +4000.
Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Travelers Championship
All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.
Best of the Best
Scottie Scheffler (FanDuel Salary: $12,300 | Golf betting odds: +600) - The heavy favorite, Scheffler deserves top billing and is entering ranked first in both strokes gained: off the tee and approach. The ball-striking is about as off-the-charts as it gets, and we know it'll come down to the putter. With that being said, his putting is just below neutral (-0.13 true strokes gained per round over the past 50 rounds). We saw him finish 13th here last year after a 47th in 2021 and a missed cut in 2020. While this isn't the most ideal course fit for Scheffler, he's 21st in the field in driving accuracy. If he putts above baseline, he'll win. The tee-to-green game being so good otherwise says that he's the best play in the field by far.
Collin Morikawa ($11,100 | +2500) - It's been a while since we've seen peak Morikawa week-after-week, but this is about as good of a setup as he can get. He's sixth in accuracy and second in approach over the past 50 rounds. He last played here in 2020, missing the cut, but was 36th in 2019. Morikawa refuses to come close to losing strokes via his approach play, and he's putted well in two straight events, as well.
Others to Consider:
Patrick Cantlay ($11,800 | +1000) - Five straight top-15s here.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500 | +2500) - Putter is flowing; ball-striking is great.
Rickie Fowler ($10,200 | +4000) - Game is surging; back-to-back strong outings at Travelers are common after U.S. Opens.
Mid-Range Picks
Russell Henley ($9,500 | +4000) - Henley is 20th in strokes gained: tee to green despite constantly losing distance on the field (94th in the field and losing an average of 7.6 yards per drive over his past 50 rounds). He's the most accurate golfer in the field this week, and he's entering with top-16s or better at the Charles Schwab, the Memorial, and the U.S. Open while striping the irons. Henley makes a lot of sense this week.
Denny McCarthy ($9,200 | +6000) - McCarthy is an elite putter, but that alone isn't a reason to be avoiding him and expecting regression. In addition to being the field leader in strokes gained: putting, he's 48th in approach play and 38th in around-the-green play. He's also 26th in accuracy. It's a great course setup for McCarthy, who overcame a lack of distance (losing 4.9 yards per drive last week) to finish T20 at the U.S. Open.
Others to Consider:
Sungjae Im ($9,800 | +5000) - Missing cuts but salary is down; accurate driver with good short game.
Si Woo Kim ($9,500 | +4500) - Accurate with top-30 irons.
Brian Harman ($9,100 | +6000) - Plays the course well; benefits from the short course.
Low-Salaried Picks
Eric Cole ($8,800 | +17000) - Cole is playing some really good golf, including a T39 at the U.S. Open and a T15 at the PGA Championship. His PGA Tour finishes recently have been T6 at the RBC Canadian Open, T24 at the Memorial, cut at the Charles Schwab, and T23 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Cole is 10th in the field in strokes gained: approach through putting, meaning that when we exclude driver play, he's an even better option.
Andrew Putnam ($8,200 | +22000) - Putnam is the prototypical type of golfer to bump up at a course such as this one. He's 96th in driving distance and thus just 94th in strokes gained: off the tee. But looking at approach play, wedge play, and putting only, he's 14th in the field in strokes gained: fairway through green. That's in addition to ranking 11th in driving accuracy. He's made all three cuts at this course, finishing T57, T13, and T46.
Others to Consider:
Aaron Rai ($8,700 | +12000) - Tee-to-green stud.
Austin Eckroat ($8,400 | +8000) - Great win odds for the salary; top-25 ball-striker and accurate.
Mark Hubbard ($8,100 | +17000) - Short hitter with top-20 irons.
