Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 3/6/21
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:50 p.m. ET, we have 10 races at Aqueduct. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and check the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Chateau and Share the Ride, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 2/1
Race 7 is a the $200K Grade III Tom Fool Handicap for older horses sprinting 6 furlongs. The race has six entries and is loaded with front runners, including the top pick of numberFire, Share the Ride (2/1), and projected board hitter Pete’s Play Call (5/2). Share the Ride won two weeks ago but finished third as the favorite behind runner-up Pete's Play Call in January's Grade III Toboggan.
Share the Ride has finished in the top three in eight straight races, according to Guaranteed Tip Sheet. Pete’s Play Call has won three times plus two runner-up finishes in six starts at Aqueduct. Chateau’s (6/1) last race was the third fastest at 6 furlongs of the 135 races run at the Big A, according to FB Winners. He’s earned four wins, two place and two show finishes in eight starts at Aqueduct.
Lake Avenue, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/5
Race 8 is the $125K Heavenly Prize Invitational for older fillies and mares racing 1 mile. numberFire's algorithm projects Portal Creek (6/1) to upset favorite Lake Avenue (8/5), who ran the top last-race speed figure (113) in winning a month ago at Gulfstream, according to Horse Racing Radar.
Lake Avenue also won twice at Aqueduct previously and tuned up for this with a bullet workout a week ago, which was the best of 36 runners. Portal missed the money in her 2021 debut but won 3-of-5 previous starts with triple-digit speed figures and finished in the money in all five. Thankful (9/5) could challenge, as she’s won 3-of-4 on a fast track, per Horse Racing Radar.
Freedom Fighter, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2
Race 9 is the $300K Grade III Gotham Stakes for three-year-olds racing 1-mile. The top-four finishers earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5). The top choice of numberFire’s data is Freedom Fighter (5/2) with Capo Kane (5/1) and the favorite Highly Motivated (8/5) to finish in the money.
Highly Motivated is a son of Into Mischief, who produced last year’s Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Authentic. Highly Motivated is conditioned by EPO trainer Chad Brown. He stretches out looking for his third straight win, with his last victory coming in early November.
Freedom Fighter is trained by Bob Baffert and ships in from California, where he’s 1-for-2 with a close runner-up finish in last month’s San Vicente (G2). That race came off a long layoff, and his recent razor-sharp morning works suggest he’s ready to fire back in a big race, according to Super Screener.
Capo Kane is 2-for-4 and raced on the lead before finishing third in the Grade III Withers at Aqueduct last month. That 1 1/8-mile race likely prepared him well for today’s test, and he should duel along the lead again, this time with Freedom Fighter.