​Santa Anita Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 6/13/21

Starting at 4:00 p.m. EST, we have 11 races at Santa Anita Park. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.

As always, check the program for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).

Beyond Brilliant, Race 4

FanDuel Racing Odds: 1/5

Race 4 is a Maiden Special Weight with just five runners going 1 mile. The heavy favorite is the top pick according to numberFire’s data, and at odds-on, there is no money to be made on Beyond Brilliant (1/5). Add him to your pick-three horizontal bets. He’s the speed in a race lacking much of it, and in his first dirt route last race, he finished second well in front of the rest and posted a 99 speed figure — his third speed figure in the 90s while hitting the board in all three starts.

Stablemate Magnificent (8/1) is also trained by John Shirrreffs and will likely improve in his second start. He moves from turf to dirt at the same 1-mile distance.

Mr. T’s Thirsty, Race 5

FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1

Race 6 is a Maiden Special Weight for state bred two-year-olds sprinting 5 furlongs. Nine juvenile runners are entered, and favorite Finneus (9/5) finished third in his debut. He ran greenly like many juveniles in early races, and trainers usually continue to work them with improvement moving forward. The numberFire data projects Finneus to hit the board with Santa Anita’s top jockey Flavien Prat riding but prefers Mr. T’s Thirsty (6/1) or Aspen Shade (5/2) to finish first and make it to the winner’s circle.

Mr. T’s Thirsy is an interesting newcomer making his debut. Sired by Grade 1 winner Stay Thirsty and endorsed by Top Race Reports, Mr. T’s Thirsty has some bullet works on his work tab and could fire at first asking with solid jockey Tyler Baze riding.

Aspen Shade ran well as a shorter favorite last race and came up a neck short. Horse Racing Radar notes an interesting stat that Aspen Shade’s trainer, Jeff Bonde, is 0-for-42 the past two years with maiden runners in their second start.

Neige Blanche and Rideforthecause, Race 9

FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 4/1

Race 9 is the $75K Possibly Perfect Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/4 miles on the downhill turf course. Dogtag (9/5) is the favorite with top turf rider Umberto Rispoli riding for leading trainer Richard Mandella. Dogtag finished second in his 2021 debut in a Grade 2 race.

But numberFire’s algorithm projects these three runners to hit the board: Neige Blanche (3/1), Rideforthecause (4/1) and Go Big Blue Nation (5/2).

Neige Blanch arrived from France and has been solid since last fall. She won the Grade 3 Santa Barbara Stakes here last month by a nose over Rideforthecause.

The Chosen Vron and Defunded, Race 10

FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/5 and 5/2

Race 10 is the featured Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes for three-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles. There are only five runners in a race for $100K purse, and numberFire shows favorite The Chosen Vron (8/5) winning over the top two challengers trained by Bob Baffert, Defunded (5/2) and Classier (2/1) with top jockey Flavien Prat riding.

Guaranteed Tip Sheet supports the three favorites, noting The Chosen Vron has three wins at Santa Anita. He has the top speed and now stretches out for the first time having won a pair of sprints convincingly.

Defunded scored a sharp comeback win in March and then finished fourth in both the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs.

Classier won last fall and makes his first start since finishing eighth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November.