Australian Open Quarterfinals Betting Guide: Tuesday 1/24/23
The first tennis Grand Slam of 2023 is already upon us! The quarterfinals of the Australian Open continue on Tuesday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we find the most betting value tonight?
Ben Shelton vs. Tommy Paul
Over 39.5 Total Match Games (-110)
Ben Shelton Moneyline (+230)
The two remaining Americans face each other on Tuesday, and the more experienced Tommy Paul is a -280 favorite to advance, which feels fair.
Paul is 31-17 on hard courts (64.6%) over the past 52 weeks, and he's defeated three opponents ranked in the top 40 on his way to the quarterfinals, including seeded players Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Roberto Bautista Agut. Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Paul is getting a 69.4% win probability against Shelton.
While backing Shelton has proven to be fruitful thus far, he's had the far easier road to this point. Shelton's last opponent, J.J. Wolf, is the only player he's faced ranked inside the top 70 at this tournament, and it took Shelton five sets and nearly four hours to get past Wolf.
But after dominating the Challenger level in 2022, the 20-year-old sure looks like he belongs. His serve has been a great equalizer, as he's hit a double-digit ace rate in three of his four matches. Overall, he's posted a 13.0% ace rate in 2023, which would be a top-20 mark in the ATP Tour over a full campaign.
Shelton will be up against it to continue his Cinderella run against the No. 35 player in the world, but we should like his chances of making things difficult for Paul. Taking the over on 39.5 total match games (-110) feels like the safest way to bet this matchup.
However, if you're feeling a little feisty, I don't hate siding with Shelton one more time. His 30.6% win probability, per Tennis Abstract, is almost spot on with his implied odds at +230, and it's quite possible we can get more value if the line moves later in the day.
Karolina Pliskova vs. Magda Linette
Karolina Pliskova Moneyline (-166)
We were getting Karolina Pliskova at better odds earlier, but even if this is where the line stays, it feels fairly safe to pick her over Magda Linette.
Pliskova hasn't dropped a set at this tournament, and she's faced more than two break points in just one of her four matches. In the last round, she took on No. 23 seed Shuai Zhang, and she dominated the match with a whopping 24.5% ace rate, winning in straight sets in just under an hour.
While inconsistency plagued Pliskova in 2022, she's won six of eight matches to start this year (including qualifiers), and her only losses have come against top-20 players Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins.
Linette is an unexpected quarterfinalist, but she had to work her way through three seeded players to get here, including No. 4 Caroline Garcia. As impressive as that is, this is uncharted territory for the 30-year-old, as she's previously never advanced past the third round at any Grand Slam.
In addition to that checkered history, Linette has really struggled in her head-to-head with Pliskova, losing seven of their nine matchups. While they did split their two matches last year, it sure looks like Pliskova has Linette's number.
According to Tennis Abstract, Pliskova has a 62.1% chance of victory, which is right in line with her -166 implied win odds.