French Open Second Round Betting Guide: Thursday 6/1/23
We've reached the premier event of the clay court season, with the 2023 edition of the French Open already underway. The second round continues on Thursday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Which matches offer the most betting value?
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (+110) over Alex de Minaur
Clay is one of those surfaces that can be a great equalizer for some lower-ranked players, and that's exactly what we have between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Alex De Minaur.
Etcheverry has spent the vast majority of his career playing on clay, and while his career clay record still isn't anything special, he comes into this tournament in good form.
In this calendar year, the Argentine has amassed a 13-8 record in ATP-level clay matches, and that includes finals appearances in Santiago and Houston. He also made a Challenger final in a tune-up just prior to the French Open. Etcheverry will also be well rested, as his first-round opponent retired shortly after one set.
On the other hand, de Minaur came into the tournament with a 3-4 clay record in 2023, and he has just a 40.9% win career win percentage on the surface. He's also just 2-6 at the French Open and has never advanced past the second round.
Per Tennis Abstract, this is pretty much a 50/50 matchup, with Etcheverry getting a 50.3% win probability. His implied odds are 47.6% at +110, so we're getting solid value at a plus number.
Frances Tiafoe (-105) over Aslan Karatsev
This is being priced as a tight match between Aslan Karatsev and Frances Tiafoe, but it's possible the American should be getting more credit.
While clay has been Tiafoe's worst surface over his career, he went 6-3 in clay matches before the tournament, which included winning a title in Houston over the aforementioned Etcheverry. While he didn't play the stiffest competition over this span, this is a player who's been steadily on the rise over the last couple of campaigns, which include making his first major semifinal at last year's US Open.
With a 21-8 record this year and a ranking just outside the top 10, we shouldn't underestimate him raising his level on this surface.
That being said, this won't be the easiest test against Karatsev. The Russian player has also been putting in work on clay lately with an identical 6-3 record prior to the Roland Garros main draw, but that record doesn't include all the qualifying matches he won to make not only the French Open but tournaments in Madrid and Munich, as well. His run at Madrid was especially impressive, which included a win over Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16 before bowing out in the semifinals.
Despite all of that, Karatsev is just 20-18 lifetime in ATP matches on the surface, and outside of that magical run in Madrid, he's had a mediocre season at just 9-8 overall.
Even when adjusted for surface, Tennis Abstract's Elo Ratings give the American around a 77-point advantage, effectively granting Tiafoe a 63.5% chance of victory. Considering this match has Karatsev as the slight -114 favorite, I like buying in on Tiafoe as the better overall player.