French Open Women's Semifinals Betting Guide: Thursday 6/8/23
The 2023 edition of the French Open is into the second week of play, and we should have a lot of fun matches upcoming as the top seeds get pitted against one another. The women's semifinals take place on Thursday, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Where can we find the most betting value?
Karolina Muchova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 Sets (-125)
Aryna Sabalenka hasn't dropped a set in this tournament, and she's now 35-5 in 2023 and has won 12 straight Grand Slam matches dating back to the Australian Open. She's lost just twice on clay this season, and one of those losses came to World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. She would later get her revenge on Swiatek by defeating her in three sets to win the Madrid title at the end of April, too.
While Sabalenka had previously never made it past the third round at Roland Garros, it's not like she's been a poor clay player in her career, amassing a 69% win percentage, per Tennis Abstract.
In other words, for as well as Karolina Muchova has played, it's really hard to see her advancing past an opponent who's in perhaps the best form of her career.
Muchova has enjoyed an impressive run herself, which includes a straight-sets win over eighth-ranked Maria Sakkari in the first round. She's 9-2 on clay this year and has a good overall history on the surface (68% win percentage). But Muchova is ranked outside the top 40 and has never ranked better than 19th (2021), so this is a tall order to ask her to get another top-10 win, let alone against someone as in the zone as Sabalenka.
According to Tennis Abstract's Elo rankings, Sabalenka has over a 200-point advantage when adjusted for surface, which effectively projects her for a 76.2% chance of victory. Sabalenka is also 1-0 lifetime against Muchova, winning in straight sets in 2019.
Unsurprisingly, the Belarusian player is a heavy favorite (-330), so betting the moneyline isn't a very appealing option. But backing Sabalenka to win in straight sets at -125 gives us a much more comfortable price to work with, making this the ideal way to target this matchup.
Iga Swiatek vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Iga Swiatek -6.5 Games (-154)
Considering Swiatek just blew the doors off World No. 6 Coco Gauff -- and was expected to do so -- it's really, really hard to find value in this matchup against No. 14 Beatriz Haddad Maia.
The reigning French Open champion has barely had to break a sweat in this tournament, not only winning all her matches in straight sets (excluding a retirement in the Round of 16), but she's won four of those sets 6-0. She's 17-2 on clay this season, and her only two losses came against the two most recent Grand Slam champions not named Iga Swiatek (Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina).
Incredibly, Swiatek has an 87% win percentage on clay, and she's now 25-2 across her four years at Roland Garros.
On the other hand, Haddad Maia has needed three sets to advance in each of the last four rounds, and two of those opponents were ranked outside the top 100. Despite being 27 years old, this is the first time she's ever made it past the second round of a major, too.
Unfortunately for Haddad Maia, this just looks like a mismatch, as Swiatek is a -2500 favorite to win and is projected to do so 89.9% of the time on Tennis Abstract. Even backing Iga to win in straight sets is priced at -490.
Therefore, if you want something a bit more palatable, the spread might be the way to go. Outside of the Gauff match, Swiatek has covered in her other three full matches, and given everything we've seen, doing so again wouldn't be shocking.
