Wimbledon Women's Semifinals Betting Guide: Thursday 7/13/23
Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, we're nearing the end of another fantastic Wimbledon. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
The action continues on Thursday morning. How should we bet the women's semifinals on Day 11?
Elina Svitolina vs. Marketa Vondrousova
Elina Svitolina Moneyline (+122)
After knocking out the World No. 1 Iga Swiatek, I'm a little surprised Elina Svitolina isn't favored in this semifinal -- but that's all the more reason to back her at plus money.
Svitolina has looked like a woman on a mission in these championships, and it hasn't been an easy draw, either. Not only did she oust Swiatek but also top-30 players in Elise Mertens and Victoria Azarenka. Even her third-round opponent, Sofia Kenin, who's struggled to find her form this season, won the Australian Open in 2020. Between Swiatek, Azarenka, Kenin, and Venus Williams, Svitolina's now beaten four Grand Slam champions to get here.
It's all the more remarkable when you consider that Svitolina just had a baby last October and returned to the WTA Tour a mere six months later this April.
But the Ukrainian's quarterfinal win over Swiatek was no fluke. Svitolina won 82% of her first-serve points, and Swiatek was only able to generate five break-point chances in three sets. Svitolina also advanced to the quarterfinals at the French Open, so she was already playing at a high level before this event.
Marketa Vondrousova is coming off some big wins herself, defeating four straight seeded players, most notably taking out World No. 4 Jessica Pegula in the last round. However, Vondrousova has a shaky history on this surface -- she hadn't made it past the second round of Wimbledon before this year (1-4 record) -- and Pegula had her on the ropes at 4-1 in the third set before inexplicably losing five straight games to lose the match.
With the way Svitolina is playing, I just don't see this dream run ending here. Tennis Abstract sees Svitolina winning a hair under 54% of the time, so she's looking like a nice value as a slight underdog.
Ons Jabeur vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Ons Jabeur Moneyline (+134)
Ons Jabeur got her revenge against 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals, a rematch of last year's final. Similar to Svitolina, Jabeur's taken out three Grand Slam champions en route to the semis between Rybakina, Petra Kvitova, and Bianca Andreescu.
The question is whether she can make it four in a row against this year's Australian Open champion, Aryna Sabalenka. In the quarterfinals, Sabalenka bullied Madison Keys off the court with a convincing straight-sets win, making this her fourth straight Grand Slam semifinal appearance. When Sabalenka is playing at her best, her power is incredibly difficult to overcome.
Jabeur will be up against it if Sabalenka has that power game working for her, but the good news is that Jabeur just survived two of the more powerful players on Tour between Rybakina and Kvitova. Ons won 76% of her first-serve points versus Rybakina and 82% against Kvitova, largely dominating the stat sheet in both matches.
Sabalenka has a three-match win streak in their head-to-head, owning a 3-1 record over Jabeur, but that seems to be baked into this line. It's worth noting, though, that their most recent match went three sets at the WTA Finals last season, with Sabalenka needing to claw back from a set down to win 3-6, 7-6, 7-5.
Ultimately, Tennis Abstract has this as close to a pick 'em, giving Sabalenka a 50.8% win probability, and considering the form we've seen from both players, that feels accurate. But at +134 odds, Jabeur's implied to win only 42.7% of the time, so this looks like a line we should jump on.
