Re-Drafting the 2007 MLB Draft Using Advanced Analytics
What Should've Happened
How much do things change when we take into account player performance to this point?
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | David Price | LHP | 36.4 |
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 32.2 |
| 3 | Chicago Cubs | Jason Heyward | OF | 29.4 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Madison Bumgarner | LHP | 28.1 |
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | Rick Porcello | RHP | 21.1 |
| 6 | Washington Nationals | Matt Wieters | C | 18.0 |
| 7 | Milwaukee Brewers | Todd Frazier | 3B | 17.9 |
| 8 | Colorado Rockies | Mike Moustakas | 3B | 10.2 |
| 9 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Ben Revere | OF | 7.8 |
| 10 | San Francisco Giants | Brett Cecil | LHP | 7.0 |
At the top, everything remains unchanged with David Price as the top pick. The five-time All-Star has a record of 121-65 in 248 career starts along with a Cy Young Award in 2012 with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Things shake up a little in picks two through five. Josh Donaldson, a compensatory pick, jumps all the way up to second overall after appearing in five All-Star Games and earning himself an AL MVP in 2015. As for Jason Heyward, he's a World Series champion, one-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glover.
A pair of big-time pitchers, Madison Bumgarner and Rick Porcello, round out the top five. In 216 career starts, Bumgarner has won 100 games and has made the trip to four All-Star Games. As for his playoff dominance, the lefty has three World Series rings and one World Series MVP to show for it. Meanwhile, Porcello has amassed 108 wins in addition to a 2016 Cy Young.
As we work our way down further, we get to two solid position players in Matt Wieters and Todd Frazier. In their combined 14-plus seasons, they have accounted for 265 home runs, 861 RBI and 6 All-Star bids between them.
Then, while Mike Moustakas has one All-Star appearance and one title to his name, Ben Revere and Brett Cecil have just one All-Star appearance between the two.
